Baghdad, Iraq – It’s been more than five months since Iraq’s parliamentary elections, but the Coordination Framework – the largest parliamentary bloc of Shia parties – has failed to choose its prime ministerial candidate amid internal power struggles.

The incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who is eyeing a second term, is facing a challenge from the bloc led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki – a pro-Iran divisive figure whose candidacy is being opposed by the United States.

The Coordination Framework – which commands approximately 185 of 329 seats in parliament – must nominate a prime minister by April 26, as required by the Iraqi constitution, while the country faces the delicate task of balancing its ties between the US and its influential eastern neighbour, Iran.

Baghdad is in a tight diplomatic spot as the US-Israel war on Iran has spilled into Iraq, with pro-Iranian armed groups having carried out attacks on US assets in solidarity with Tehran.

Iran, which wields considerable influence over Iraqi politics, has also been involved in the political crisis. It has cultivated Shia parties following the removal of President Saddam Hussein in the 2003 US-led military invasion.

Ismail Qaani, the head of the Quds Force, the foreign branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), visited Baghdad at the weekend, aiming to break the leadership deadlock, according to sources.

His unannounced visit apparently came at the request of the caretaker Prime Minister al-Sudani to convince the Shia Coordination Framework not to nominate Bassem al-Badri, who is aligned with Maliki, as prime minister, according to a source familiar with the discussions.

Falih al-Fayadh, chairman of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) and a senior figure in al-Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition, mediated the visit, the source said. The PMF, also known as al-Hashd al-Shaabi, is an umbrella organisation of mostly Shia armed groups, some of whom have close ties to Iran. They are part of “the Axis of Resistance” – a network of political and armed groups allied with Iran across the Middle East.

The US has been wary of Iran’s influence through its allied groups, such as Yemen’s Houthis and Lebanon’s Hezbollah – the most powerful members of the Network.

Qaani met with Abu Fadak al-Mohammadawi, the PMF’s chief of staff, as well as al-Maliki, al-Sudani, and several other Coordination Framework leaders. A separate source said al-Mohammadawi is leading efforts within the Framework to block al-Sudani’s bid for a second term.

“The Iranians face a bigger existential challenge – the US-Israeli war – and are not interested in settling the Iraqi PM file. They want a weak prime minister through whom they can get what they want,” said Akeel Abbas, a Washington-based researcher.

Political appointments to the top democratic posts have often exposed sectarian and ethnic divisions. Under Iraq’s power-sharing system (Muhasasa), in place since the first government formation after the 2003 US-led invasion, the presidency goes to the Kurds, the speakership to Sunni Arabs and the post of prime minister to Shia Arabs.

On April 11, Nizar Amedi was appointed president after months of political haggling. Now the Coordination Framework must nominate a prime minister within 15 days from the president’s appointment.

The Framework’s general secretariat has called a meeting for Monday at the residence of Ammar al-Hakim, head of the National State Forces Alliance, a core member of the Shia bloc, with a single agenda item: selecting the prime ministerial candidate.

According to a source inside the Framework, the last three meetings on the matter were postponed because leaders could not agree on a name.

What does the Framework want?

Framework leaders are seeking a prime minister who cannot compete with the larger Shia bloc. Unlike al-Sudani and al-Maliki, who lead their own political parties, al-Badri is emerging as a preferred option.

Al-Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition has 46 seats, and Maliki’s Dawa party commands 29 seats in the parliament.

Al-Badri is the current head of the Accountability and Justice Commission, the body responsible for implementing de-Baathification – the system to remove former ruling Baath party members from Iraqi state institutions.

Qais al-Khazali is leader of Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and its political wing, the Sadiqoun bloc within the Framework, which holds 27 parliamentary seats. In a 2022 TV interview, he publicly argued that the prime minister should not monopolise state decisions and must return to the Framework on all political, security, and economic matters.

Al-Badri fits that template. He currently has the backing of seven of the Framework’s 12 leaders. He needs eight – a two-thirds majority required by the bloc’s internal rules – to secure the nomination, according to two sources from different parties within the Framework. It remains unclear whether Qaani’s visit has shifted that equation.

“Al-Maliki knows he cannot pass, especially after US President Trump’s post on X,” said Mehdi Khaz’al, a political analyst and head of the Al-Kalima Foundation for Dialogue and Development. In January, Trump said that Iraq would be making a “very bad choice” should it choose al-Maliki.

“Last time Maliki was in power, the Country descended into poverty and total chaos. That should not be allowed to happen again,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

“Because of his insane policies and ideologies, if elected, the United States of America will no longer help Iraq,” he said. If we are not there to help, Iraq has ZERO chance of Success, Prosperity, or Freedom. MAKE IRAQ GREAT AGAIN!”

Al-Maliki, who entered the race in January, dubbed Trump’s threats as a “violation of Iraqi sovereignty”. But Iraqi politicians can ill afford to take on Trump at a time when the country’s oil exports have plummeted in the wake of the Iran war.

“That is why al-Maliki is backing al-Badri as an alternative candidate. But there is no winning formula inside the Framework yet, and there won’t be one until the results of the Iranian-US negotiations become clear,” Khaz’al told Al Jazeera.

The US position

A US Embassy official in Baghdad said it does not have a preference for any candidate, except for the opposition to al-Maliki.

“We are committed to President Trump’s instructions, which stated clearly that the United States will halt support for Iraq if al-Maliki is elected prime minister. Otherwise, we do not have preferences on who’s going to be the prime minister,” said the American embassy official.

The US administration views al-Maliki as part of Iran’s direct network of influence and fears his return would undermine American efforts to weaken Iran’s reach in Iraq.

During his term as prime between 2006 and 2014, al-Maliki was accused of pursuing policies of exclusion of Sunnis from state institutions under the guise of de-Baathification. His sectarian politics have been blamed for the rise of ISIL (ISIS) in Iraq.

Despite the US stance, al-Maliki’s State of Law Coalition remains publicly committed to his candidacy.

“The Framework’s officially announced candidate for the premiership has not been replaced,” Hisham al-Rekabi, director of Maliki’s office, wrote on X.

“What is needed today is a clear resolution – just as the nomination was made, it can be withdrawn through the same mechanism and a new nomination can proceed without delay.”

But a source inside the State of Law Coalition pointed to the intensity of American pressure. Tom Barrack, the US Ambassador to Turkiye and special envoy to Syria, told al-Maliki that if he steps aside, the United States would accept any candidate of his choosing, the source said. “We are holding on to our right to determine the head of government,” the source told Al Jazeera.

The US position on al-Badri remains unclear. Multiple sources inside the Framework said they have not received any American messages regarding his candidacy, despite al-Badri being a member of al-Maliki’s Dawa party, and facing accusations that the commission he leads has applied de-Baathification selectively.

Before al-Maliki’s nomination, clear American messages rejecting his candidacy had arrived. But if Washington decides to act on Trump’s warnings, it has a broad range of tools at its disposal.

A presidential executive order, originally issued by President George W Bush after the Iraq War, grants legal protection to Iraqi oil revenues held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, shielding them from being frozen by Iraq’s creditors.

The order is expected to expire in May. If Trump chooses not to renew it, creditors could seek to claim their funds and US courts may issue rulings to freeze Iraqi assets – disrupting the transfer of funds needed to pay public salaries and potentially bringing the Iraqi economy to a halt.

Separately, the US Treasury designated seven militia commanders belonging to Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, Kata’ib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba and Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada on April 17. The State Department issued its own statement confirming the designations – an unusual step, as Washington typically limits such announcements to the technical details published by the Treasury.

The move suggests the United States intends to continue pursuing Iran-aligned armed factions regardless of the government formation process – and may be prepared to do so unilaterally, without requesting action from Baghdad.

Al-Sudani and the sovereignty question

Al-Sudani is attempting to manage a balance between Iran-backed armed factions and the US government, both of which are influential in his pursuit of a second term – a balancing act that does not appear to be succeeding.

In February, before the US-Israeli war on Iran, al-Sudani’s government awarded contracts to the American oil company Chevron to manage oil fields in Basra, Dhi Qar and Salahuddin. The agreements also included the transfer of management of West Qurna-2 – one of Iraq’s largest oil fields – from Russia’s Lukoil, which had withdrawn following sanctions.

The signing was in the presence of ambassador Barrack and Joshua Harris, the US charge d’affaires in Baghdad. However, these contracts remain legally non-binding, as they were concluded under a caretaker government and require a fully empowered administration to ratify them.

At the same time, al-Sudani authorised the PMF to respond to US strikes targeting its positions and allowed militia personnel to shelter inside Iraqi army installations – facilities the United States had previously avoided targeting.

The US State Department summoned Iraqi Ambassador Nizar al-Khairallah for the first time since 2003 and delivered a formal protest over what it described as the Iraqi government’s failure to protect diplomatic missions.

The summons followed an unsuccessful assassination attempt on a US diplomatic convoy on April 8, for which no group has claimed responsibility. Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE summoned their respective Iraqi ambassadors and issued similar protests.

“There is no legal framework for foreign officials to discuss a sovereign Iraqi matter. The Iraqi political class continuously violates the constitution. They must recommit to the constitutional path: tasking the nominee of the largest bloc within 15 days. As for trying to please the Iranians or the Americans, waiting for the outcome of a regional war to choose an Iraqi prime minister – that is disgraceful,” said Meitham al-Khalkhali, a lawyer and political analyst.

The growing woes for ordinary Iraqis

While Iraq’s political leaders navigate between Tehran and Washington over who will lead the next government, Iraqis have been contending with increasing economic pressures even before the Iran war that require a fully empowered government to address.

New customs tariffs that took effect on January 1, with rates reaching as high as 30 percent on some goods, have sharply increased the cost of imports – from electrical appliances and furniture to vehicles.

A reinstated 20 percent sales tax on mobile phone recharge cards has added to the burden.

In February, traders went on nationwide strike, closing major commercial districts in Baghdad, Basra, Mosul and Kirkuk. Shop owners hung banners reading “customs fees are killing citizens.”

Traders in Mosul reported that the cost of importing a single shipping container had jumped from around five million dinars ($3800) to as much as 60 million ($45,662). Iraq carries more than 90 trillion dinars ($69bn) in debt, and its state budget remains dependent on oil for roughly 90 percent of revenues – all while the country has been without a fully functioning government for over five months.

“The sovereignty discourse adopted by the Coordination Framework loses its meaning when it is met with implicit acceptance – and sometimes direct requests – for Iranian and American influence over government formation,” said Azeez Al-Rubaye, the secretary-general of the opposition National Line movement party.

“The problem is not the existence of international interests, that is an undeniable reality. The problem is the inability of domestic actors to produce an independent national formula that manages these interests without becoming their instrument,” he told Al Jazeera.