After Texas Republicans chose the beleaguered attorney general, Ken Paxton, as their party’s nominee for US Senate on Tuesday, Democrats are feeling bullish that they could pull off a victory in the red-leaning state – and maybe win back the Senate in this year’s midterm elections.
Paxton – whose history includes an impeachment, fraud charges and an alleged affair – beat incumbent John Cornyn after receiving Trump’s blessing in the most expensive primary this year. In November he will face James Talarico, a young state lawmaker and pastor, who won the Democratic primary amid a rising national profile.
Winning the Senate seemed a far-fetched prospect for the opposition party when Trump retook the White House. And it’s still an uphill climb for Democrats, who would need to keep all their existing seats and flip four ito regain control of the chamber, where Republicans hold a 53-47 majority.
But a host of factors give Democrats hope: Trump’s approval rating has plummeted, midterms typically go against the party in power, Democrats are winning in unexpected places in special elections, and there are candidates in close races who have seen a rise in popularity by veering away from establishment talking points and toward populist platforms.
In swing-state Georgia, Senator Jon Ossoff is expected to keep his seat. The North Carolina senator Thom Tillis’s departure leaves an open seat previously held by Republicans, with the former Democratic governor Roy Cooper poised to take it home. Mary Peltola, a former US representative, gives Democrats a strong option for Senate in Alaska. And in Maine, Democrats think Graham Platner can knock long-serving Republican Susan Collins out of her seat.
Democrats want to keep an open seat in Michigan in their hands, and an open seat in New Hampshire. They’re also hoping to win back Ohio via Sherrod Brown, a longtime elected official and former US senator who lost in 2024. The favorable headwinds have Democrats looking in more unlikely places, too, such as Iowa, Nebraska and Texas.
Georgia – likely to stay Democratic
The general election race isn’t set yet in Georgia, but Ossoff is polling well for re-election and has a massive war chest ready for the contest. Ossoff, 39, took office in 2021, as did fellow Democratic senator Raphael Warnock, securing a tied Senate that year.
In May, two Republican candidates advanced to a June runoff: Mike Collins, who was endorsed by Trump, and Derek Dooley, who was endorsed by Georgia’s governor, Brian Kemp.
North Carolina – likely Democratic pickup
Cooper is a longtime state politician in the southern swing state, most recently serving two terms as governor, ending in 2025.
Tillis, a rare Republican who has sided against Trump on major issues, decided not to run for re-election. Trump would have sought to support a primary challenger to Tillis had he sought re-election.
Michael Whatley, who chaired the Republican National Committee from 2024-25, won the Republican primary for the seat and is endorsed by Trump.
Cooper runs ahead of Whatley in most polls, and he outperformed Democratic presidential candidates in his gubernatorial runs during years when Trump took the state.
Cook Political Report says the North Carolina races leans Democratic and is the most likely seat for Democrats to flip, saying Cooper was the “strongest candidate” for Democrats in the state.
New Hampshire – leans Democratic
Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, served three times in the Senate but declined to run again this year.
Democrats have the edge in the race, with Cook Political Report saying the race leans Democratic. But the political mix in the blue-leaning state is giving Republicans hope: while it is represented by all Democrats in DC, Republicans have control at the state level, with Republican Kelly Ayotte as governor.
The primary isn’t until September, one of the latest in the midterm cycle. On the Democratic side, representative Chris Pappas is the frontrunner, while there’s a more crowded field on the right. John Sununu, himself a former senator and the brother of former governor, Chris Sununu. is leading the crowd on the right and was endorsed by Trump. Scott Brown, another former US senator, is also in the race.
Michigan – toss-up
Gary Peters, a Democratic senator, is retiring, leaving Democrats to defend an open seat in a state that Trump narrowly won in 2024.
Michigan features one of the most contentious Democratic primaries in the country: US representative Haley Stevens, state senator Mallory McMorrow and former public health official Abdul El-Sayed.
The war in Gaza and outside funding from pro-Israel groups have animated the race, and the fissures within the Democratic party have been on display as the three candidates make their cases to voters. Stevens is seen as a moderate, and El-Sayed a progressive, with McMorrow somewhere in between. The primary is set for 4 August.
Mike Rogers, a Republican former US representative who ran for Senate in 2024, is running for the open seat on the right.
Cook Political Report calls Michigan “the GOP’s best opportunity to flip a seat and throw a serious wrench into Democrats’ majority math”.
Maine – toss-up
Democrats could finally – maybe – oust Senator Susan Collins, a moderate Republican who is often a thorn to her own party but has managed to hang on to her seat in a state that has voted consistently against Trump. A win in the state is key to a Democratic Senate.
The Democratic primary saw a new candidate in Graham Platner, an oyster farmer who has cast himself as a populist everyman, and for a time included the Democratic governor, Janet Mills, who then later suspended her campaign after it was clear that Platner would win the primary.
Platner, a Marine Corps veteran, has gotten considerable attention outside and inside the state for his candidacy, because of his populist and anti-oligarchy messages and because of controversial comments on social media and a Nazi-aligned tattoo, which has since been covered up, that Platner said he did not initially understand.
Ohio – toss-up
Sherrod Brown, the former Democratic US senator in the red state, wants back in the Senate, where he served from 2007 until his 2024 election defeat by Republican Bernie Moreno in a rough year for Democrats.
This time, Brown’s brand of economic populism should prove potent to Republicans in an election that will focus heavily on pocketbook issues amid rising unaffordability and high gas prices thanks to the Iran war.
Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up, noting that Brown will be seen more as an incumbent in the race than the actual US senator, Jon Husted, who was appointed to the role in 2025 after JD Vance became vice-president.
Texas – leans Republican
Could a Democrat finally win a Senate seat in Texas? It would be a coup, but with Paxton’s win, and his laundry list of liabilities, national Democrats see some hope in Talarico.
Cook Political Report moved the race from likely Republican to lean Republican after Paxton’s primary victory, saying that Democrats were “in an undeniably better position with Paxton as the GOP nominee” than they would have been if incumbent senator John Cornyn had won.
Talarico spoke to Cornyn supporters after Paxton’s win, telling them: “You have a place in our campaign.”
Paxton and national Republicans have sought to brand Talarico as soft (calling him “Low T Talarico”) and out of step with Texans, with some, including Trump adviser Stephen Miller, attacking Talarico with anti-trans messages (Talarico is not trans). Talarico embraced one of the taunts, Talafreako, and made it into campaign merch.
Alaska – leans Republican
Peltola, the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress, won her 2022 election in an upset via the state’s ranked-choice voting system, the first Democratic victory for the state’s US House seat since 1972.
In 2024, she lost her bid for re-election, where she lost by much less than Biden did in a sign of crossover appeal. Now, the moderate Democrat and former tribal judge is vying for another upset in the right-leaning state.
She will race incumbent Dan Sullivan, a Republican who has served in the chamber since 2015 and is endorsed by Trump.
Cook Political Report says the seat leans Republican. Peltola’s first ad in the race focused on how Alaskans “stick together” and how Peltola will stick up for them, an appeal to cross-partisan voters. A man in the video says: “Mary’s had her boots on the ground, on the riverbanks, in the mud, just like all of us Alaskans. She gets it.”
Nebraska – wildcard
It would be a major upset, but Democrats in the Cornhusker state have put their stock in an independent, hoping Dan Osborn, in his second run at a US Senate seat, could topple incumbent Republican senator Pete Ricketts.
In an odd sequence, Democrat Cindy Burbank won her party’s primary by vowing to drop out of the race, clearing the way for Osborn to face Ricketts one on one.
Osborn, a union machinist, came closer than expected when he ran in 2024 against Deb Fischer, spreading a message of “prairie populism”. Ricketts should prove a harder opponent for Osborn, though the national outlook for Republicans is worse this year.
Trump won in 2024 with 59% of the vote, but because Nebraska allocates its electoral college votes by congressional district, one of the votes went to Kamala Harris – breaking a four-decade-plus streak of no Democrats receiving an electoral vote from the state.
Iowa – wildcard
Iowa Democrats will vote in early June between state representative Josh Turek and state senator Zach Wahls, which could play into how national Democrats view the race come November.
The Senate seat is open after incumbent Joni Ernst decided not to run again a few months after she commented, “Well, we are all going to die” in response to a question about the dire consequences of Medicaid cuts delivered by Trump’s big beautiful bill.
Turek, a Paralympian, has won in a district that favored Trump, while Wahls, who captured national attention as a young man by giving a speech about his two moms, represents a solidly blue part of the state.
National groups have spent big to boost Turek so far, seeing him as a better bet in a red-leaning state, given his record of winning in a Trump-friendly legislative district.
Ashley Hinson, a former broadcaster, is expected to easily win the Republican primary.
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