Unai Emery says Aston Villa will not judge their season as a failure, even if the club miss out on the Europa League final against Nottingham Forest on Thursday, stressing that reaching the last four already represents important progress for the team and the players.

Emery accepted that expectations have grown, as Aston Villa have been seen as leading contenders throughout this Europa League campaign, yet the head coach stressed that trophies are rare and that long-term growth remains the club’s main target under the current project.

Chris Wood’s second-half penalty settled the first leg at the City Ground, giving Nottingham Forest a 1-0 advantage and leaving Aston Villa needing a comeback at Villa Park, where the second leg of this Europa League semi-final will decide who goes through.

According to Opta’s supercomputer, Aston Villa now have a 22.9% chance of lifting the Europa League trophy, with Nottingham Forest rated at 39.4% and Braga at 25.4%, while the remaining percentage reflects the chances of the other semi-finalist.

Asked whether a semi-final exit would represent failure for Aston Villa in the Europa League, Emery replied: “To reach a semi-final is a huge achievement. Winning a trophy is very difficult. Very, very, very difficult. It’s not a defeat if we are not achieving a trophy. The only way forwards is to keep going, improving, having opportunities in the present and the future. We have the opportunity now, but only one team can win.”

Emery also reflected on how the probabilities have shifted since the first meeting with Nottingham Forest, saying: “When I spoke before the first leg, we had 25% of the possibility to win a trophy. Now it’s maybe less because we started losing. We have 50% or maybe less chance of playing in the final. This is football, and you must respect every competition and, in Europe, you must respect each team.”

Emery’s record at Aston Villa includes a Europa Conference League semi-final in 2023-24 and a Champions League quarter-final the following season, and the head coach has still not delivered a trophy at Villa Park, despite being widely regarded as one of Europe’s most successful managers in knockout competition.

Discussing whether this Europa League campaign is his best chance of silverware with Aston Villa, Emery said progression remains the key objective for the club’s project: “We are usually getting higher level with the club, with the players. We are improvingmyself as well,” Emery added. “We will have, after tomorrow [Thursday], a way to set ourselves more challenges for the present or future. I don’t think tomorrow [Europa League] is the last opportunity for us, or for anyone.”

Aston Villa’s recent European form at home offers some encouragement before Nottingham Forest visit, as the team are on a run of nine consecutive home wins in European competition, following a 0-0 draw with Juventus in last season’s Champions League, and they have scored in 31 of their last 32 European matches at Villa Park, with that Juventus game the only exception.

Emery underlined how the squad are handling the demands of Europa League competition at this stage, saying: “The players, of course, are enjoying the process we are doing. They are aware of the difficulties football can give you, but the greatest moment we have had here at Aston Villa for the last three years… it’s that we can smile and be proud of everything. But, of course, we are still so demanding, so consistent with everything we are doing. It’s not going to break anything in our thinking, our process of how things are improving.”

The historical challenge facing Aston Villa is also clear, as the last team to overturn a first-leg deficit against domestic opponents in a major European tie were Atletico Madrid, who lost 2-1 away to Barcelona in the 2015-16 Champions League quarter-finals before winning 2-0 at home, a precedent that underlines the difficulty of Aston Villa’s position but also shows such turnarounds remain possible.