West Ham’s 3-1 defeat to Newcastle United at St James’ Park leaves Nuno Espirito Santo’s team facing almost certain Premier League relegation, with one match left against Leeds United and survival now dependent on other results, including Tottenham’s meeting with Chelsea and a later clash with Everton.

Newcastle struck early on Tyneside and controlled long spells, while West Ham rarely challenged with intensity, despite Valentin Castellanos producing a clever lob in the second half that briefly lifted hopes before the match slipped away again for the visitors.

According to the Opta Supercomputer, West Ham now hold a 93.83% probability of going down, while 17th-placed Tottenham carry a 6.17% chance, figures which mirror in-game projections that had West Ham at 93.8% and Tottenham at 6.2% after the final whistle against Newcastle.

The defeat leaves West Ham two points adrift of safety with one league fixture to play, and relegation could even be confirmed on Tuesday if Tottenham beat Chelsea, while any final-day survival chance would also rely on Tottenham losing at home to Everton.

West Ham’s recent league form underlines the slide, with three straight Premier League defeats for the third separate spell this season, following similar runs in October and December, having previously lost only three of 13 league matches in the period before this current sequence.

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This is bad, bad. Overall bad performance. Too many things went wrong, Nuno told BBC Sport. I think we gifted them the goals. Really disappointing. Look, it’s going to be a tough week for us. We realise the situation is extremely difficult for us. Let’s see what happens on Tuesday. More than anything it’s about respect, work, and competing in our last game at the London Stadium.

Nuno Espirito Santo expressed frustration at his team’s display and admitted West Ham were second best from the opening whistle, describing a performance in which Newcastle exploited defensive lapses, with Nick Woltemade and William Osula putting the hosts two up inside 19 minutes.

Osula then struck again after half-time to extend Newcastle’s lead, and although Castellanos produced a precise lob to reduce the deficit and create brief optimism among the away players, the contest soon settled back in Newcastle’s favour.

Maybe we prepared badly? Maybe we made mistakes, we have to look. If you look at the game, then probably, yes. Let’s look at the game. We started poorly, we were soft. The way we conceded the first goal and second goal, everything wasmuch harder. Let’s try to finish the season with dignity and respect for the club. It is a hard week ahead of us, but we owe it to the club to try until the end. We will wait until Tuesday, but we have been in these situations in recent weeks, when you have chances to go [out of the bottom three]and don’t take it, then we expect what might happen in other games. It is possible but it is difficult.

Newcastle win, West Ham Premier League context and European chase

Newcastle’s victory also carried significance at the other end of the table, as the result preserved slim hopes of European qualification and marked Kieran Trippier’s final appearance for the club at St James’ Park, adding an emotional layer to the afternoon for home supporters.

It wasn’t the perfect game for us, but it was very good in phases, especially in the first half. I thought we were excellent with the ball and really creative,Eddie Howe told Sky Sports. We have seen big progression in the last weeks, a much better performance.

Knowing Kieran as well as I do now, he is brilliant on the pitch, but it’s off the pitch as well. The stabilising effect he has in the dressing room, positivity in difficult moments and the way he inspires the playershe’s a really inspiring leader and, wherever he goes, the club will be very lucky.

West Ham now prepare for the final league fixture against Leeds United at the London Stadium under severe pressure, with players and staff needing to respond after three successive defeats, while Newcastle look towards their last matches encouraged by signs of improvement and the ongoing, if narrow, European possibility.