Virginia voters on Tuesday approved a Democratic redistricting plan that could allow the party to pick up as many as four new seats in the midterm elections, NBC News projects.
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The special election is a major victory for Democrats as they seek to gain control of the narrowly divided House this fall. Democrats have now won statewide votes in California and Virginia to redraw congressional maps as part of a mid-decade redistricting arms race that began last year when President Donald Trump urged GOP-led states to alter their district lines.
Republicans had hoped they could insulate their three-seat House majority, but the result of the redistricting back-and-forth may end up being close to a wash.
The constitutional amendment that was on the Virginia ballot Tuesday sought to authorize the Democratic-controlled Legislature to bypass the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission and implement a new congressional map through the end of the decade.
Democrats’ proposed map is designed to leave just one solidly Republican district out of 11 in the state. Currently, Virginia is represented by six Democrats and five Republicans in the House.
After Republicans enacted new maps last year in Texas, Missouri and North Carolina, Virginia offered a rare, seat-rich prize for Democrats — who control the redistricting process in fewer states — as they sought to respond.
Unlike in some states, where regular legislation can change maps, Virginia Democrats were required to pass the proposed amendment in two different legislative sessions, with a general election in between, before sending it to voters for approval. Democrats also successfully urged voters to approve a new congressional map in California last year that could allow the party to gain five new seats.
While Virginia is a blue-leaning state, and one where Gov. Abigail Spanberger won by 15 points in last fall’s election, Democrats faced challenges as a party that had long been opposed to partisan gerrymandering in selling a map made up of jagged districts radiating messily from Northern Virginia throughout the rest of the state.
Supporters of the measure flooded the zone with early ads, putting former President Barack Obama front and center. Spanberger did not enthusiastically embrace the redistricting effort as a candidate last year, but as governor she hit the campaign trail in support of the referendum, as did other national figures like House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y..
But when a public poll in early April gave Republicans some hope for their campaign backing a “no” vote, they ramped up spending. In the last month, they narrowed a massive 17-to-1 spending gap in the campaign to a 3-to-1 Democratic advantage, according to ad-tracking data from AdImpact.
The group that organized against the referendum mobilized former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and tried to spur rural voters to turn out. Trump, meanwhile, stayed silent on the race until Monday night, when he added a tele-rally to his schedule at the last minute and called into a conservative radio show in Virginia.
But the fight over Virginia’s map — and the broader redistricting battle — won’t end Tuesday.
Republicans have challenged the legality of Democrats’ rushed constitutional amendment. The Virginia Supreme Court ruled to allow the special election to move forward, while simultaneously reserving the right to rule after the race on questions surrounding the measure.
Six states — Texas, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, Utah, and California — enacted new maps in the last year, giving Republicans as many as nine new seats and Democrats up to six new seats. Once Virginia passes the map authorized by Tuesday’s election, Democrats could win as many as 10 new House seats due to redistricting..
Republicans could still add to their total in Florida, where lawmakers have discussed drawing two to five new seats that would favor the party in a special legislative session next week.
Still, both parties will still need to actually win the redrawn districts they’ve created at the ballot box, and election results are not always consistent from year to year. Democrats have outperformed past results in special elections in 2025 and 2026, and if that trend extends into the midterm elections, it could erode some of the districts drawn to be more Republican-friendly in states like Texas.
Brian Kirwin, a Republican strategist in Virginia, said Democrats could find their new left-leaning districts more difficult to win in practice in the state.
“At the end of the day, the people get all the power,” he said. “You can draw these districts and micro-target and figure out how to make everything work, and then put a horrible candidate up there, and all of a sudden, you know, your blue districts are no longer blue.”
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