Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Henry J. Gomez explains what Vice President JD Vance’s Ohio trip says about his midterm role. Plus, Kristen Welker breaks down the stakes for President Donald Trump’ in next week’s South Carolina runoff.

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— Adam Wollner

Vance’s homecoming is a throwback to 2024 — and a preview for 2026 and 2028

Analysis by Henry J. Gomez

Vice President JD Vance’s return to his hometown this afternoon was in many ways a preview of the heavy load he will carry for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party on the midterm campaign trail.

Against the backdrop of voters’ mounting affordability concerns, Vance emphasized an uptick in manufacturing jobs during a speech in Middletown, Ohio. He celebrated $1 billion in new investment, including a federal grant, that will help upgrade the Cleveland-Cliffs steel plant where he delivered his remarks. And he urged support for Republican candidates this fall, singling out Sen. Jon Husted, who is running to keep Vance’s old Senate seat, and Vivek Ramaswamy, the party’s nominee for Ohio governor.

“This is not, unfortunately, JFK or FDR‘s Democrat party,” Vance said. “Hell, it’s not even Bill Clinton‘s Democrat Party.”

For the GOP, one notion underpinning the message is that Vance may be uniquely suited to sell it. The factory he visited Friday was the same one — albeit under a different name and ownership — where his late grandfather once toiled as a welder. It’s a detail familiar to those who read Vance’s 2016 memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy,” and one that he has been called on to recount time and again in his young political career to project working-class relatability.

“Papaw was a welder in this place for 40 years, and today his grandson stands here as the vice president of these United States. It’s an amazing thing,” Vance said. “And I’m here with a message from the president of these United States: The future of America, the future of the United States, the future of our homes and communities is going to be built right here in Middletown, Ohio.”

The visit was a throwback to how Vance was used as Trump’s running mate in 2024. His first solo event after joining the ticket that year was in Middletown, at his high school alma mater. Vance then spent the weeks until Election Day largely camped out in other Midwest states, such as Michigan and Wisconsin, and culturally and economically similar parts of Pennsylvania.

As it was then, the idea now is that Vance’s lived experience in a region that people on the coasts dismiss as the Rust Belt helps him connect with blue-collar voters. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who spoke before Vance today, welcomed the vice president to the stage by declaring him “the leader of the reindustrializing the United States of America.”

Vance, who recently welcomed a fourth child with second lady Usha Vance, has acknowledged that his own political fortunes are tied to this year’s midterm elections. He is the first sitting vice president to serve as the Republican National Committee’s finance chair.

It’s a position that will require him to spend plenty of time raising money — and testing his message — beyond his Midwest comfort zone. And it’s one that could make him a target in a 2028 presidential primary if Republicans suffer big losses.

Uncertain South Carolina race presents key test for Trump

Analysis by Kristen Welker

President Donald Trump is heading to South Carolina tonight to try and boost appointed Sen. Darline Graham ahead of Tuesday’s primary runoff, which will present another test of his sway over Republican voters.

The president encouraged Graham to run to replace her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, on the November ballot. She finished first in the initial primary that featured a crowded field earlier this month, winning 33% of the vote. Graham advanced to a runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman, a staunch conservative and member of the House Freedom Caucus, who won 25% of the primary vote.

The two-week sprint to the runoff has raised new questions about Darline Graham’s candidacy, especially following a flub in a recent debate where she was asked about Taiwan and responded, “I’m not that informed on national security, so, but I do support the military.” She later added, “I’m not a polished politician up here. National security is not my thing, not my area of expertise.”

One GOP strategist told me that there’s disagreement about where Graham currently stands, noting internal polling has shown her both ahead of and trailing Norman. The strategist cautioned not to be surprised if Norman pulls off a win.

The tumultuous South Carolina race comes as Trump’s preferred candidates have suffered some primary losses this month. Along with the South Carolina runoff, the president’s endorsement will also be put to the test on Tuesday in a GOP primary runoff for governor in Oklahoma, where Trump-backed former state Sen. Mike Mazzei is facing off against state Attorney General Gentner Drummond.

But Trump’s visit to South Carolina puts that race front and center heading into next week. Graham also has the backing of other prominent Republicans, including South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who chairs the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm.

Scott will be joining “Meet the Press” on Sunday, along with Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., to discuss the latest in the battle for the Senate with the midterms fast approaching.

🗳️ Related: Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, who ran in the Senate primary, endorsed Norman over Graham. Read more →

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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