Key events
What is Trump’s response to concerns about inflation and affordability?
NambuccaBarry says: So good that Trump has discovered the word ‘affordability’, just as his cuts to Medicaid, SNAP and ACA subsidies are starting to hurt struggling Americans.
Michael: Trump has continued denying inflation and affordability concerns. During two campaign rallies in Arizona and Montana attended by Trump yesterday, Trump blamed inflation on Joe Biden.
“He gave us the highest inflation in history,” Trump said, who also claimed prices are declining.
When Trump took office, inflation was at 3.0% in January 2025 for the preceding 12 months. In September 2026, inflation was at 3.7%. Trump also said “we have very little inflation” and denied tariffs contributing to inflation. Consumer sentiment dropped to 46.3 in October 2026, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment, the second lowest rating on record, with 70% of Americans saying they will either cut back (54%) or stop (16%) spending in response to inflation.
Has Trump delivered on his promises to lower costs for Americans?
Ashleigh Ewald from Georgia asks in a callout question: President Trump made a lot of promises about lowering costs for Americans, especially energy prices. But how much have things actually changed since he took office? Are people really saving money, or are they still feeling the same financial pressures? And when gas or oil prices go up, how much of that is actually because of the president’s policies versus things happening around the world?
Gaya Gupta: These are great questions. Let’s start with your point about energy prices.
On the campaign trail, Trump vowed to lower gas prices to below $2 and slash the country’s energy bills by half. However, as a direct result of the US-Israel war with Iran, energy prices have shot up significantly this year. The US and Iran have been battling for control of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway near Iran through which about a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through. With the Strait largely closed since war broke out in February, oil prices have skyrocketed — brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, was below $68 a month before the war started, and now, it’s above $100. Though Trump has said several times this year that a peace deal with Iran has been near, their peace agreements have ultimately collapsed, as Trump has refused deals that don’t involve Iran dismantling its nuclear program. So, the war continues.
All of this has significantly impacted the price Americans see at the gas pump (I’ve certainly noticed a difference when filling up my car!). The national average gas of price is more thna a dollar more expensive than a year ago. These prices have directly fluctated alongside negotiations between the US and Iran for a peace deal. Overall, researchers at Brown University estimate that American households have had to spend over $1k more so far this year on gas and diesel, as a direct result of the war.
Michael Sainato: Cumulative inflation since December 2024 is 5.9%. Inflation has largely been driven by a surge in gas and oil prices this year. Gas prices have set a record for the highest number of days in a calendar year with the average price for a gallon above $4.
Trump began conducting military strikes in Iran on 28 February, 2026. Gas prices surged as a result, due to the disruption to production and supplies. Some analysts warned if flows through the Strait of Hormuz weren’t restored, oil prices would jump to over $100 a barrel. According to the Energy Information Administration, oil prices averaged $114 per barrel in September 2026.
“The disruption creates a dual supply shock: not only are current exports through the strait halted, but Opec+ additional volumes and ultimately most of Opec’s spare capacity – typically a key lever for balancing the global oil market – are inaccessible while the waterway remains closed,” analysts at the energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in a note in early March 2026.
By the end of March 2026, average gas prices jumped $1 a gallon to $3.98. Today, the current US average for a gallon of gas is $4.33 as the military conflict in Iran has continued. Trump’s tariffs have also contributed to inflation and increased costs for the typical US household, with the non partisan Yale Budget Lab estimating US household costs annually at about $1,100 due to tariffs.
Heather Timmons: Americans are also feeling increasingly sqeezed and frustrated by the extreme “financialization” rampant in the US economy right now. Companies have been using tech tools and making up new fees to maximize the amount they can charge customers and tenants; private equity companies are taking over vets and dentists and fast food and yanking prices sky high while cutting quality. And wages aren’t keeping up with that or inflation. So there’s a lot of anger and frustration out there in general — some of this helped Trump get reelected in 2024, and the question many Democrats are asking on the campaign trail is ‘Do you feel better off than you did two years ago?” We are exploring this growing frustration here at the Guardian, would love to hear from you at consumed@theguardian.com
Welcome to the conversation
Welcome to our latest US midterms live Q&A.
With just over two weeks to election day on 3 November, the US economy is top of voters’ minds. Food and gas prices remain high, the job market is unstable, consumers are angrier than ever, and a new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, took over this year.
A team of business, labor and consumer rights reporters are here to answer your questions about the economy and how it could shape the midterm results. They’ve covered inflation, cost of living increases, tariffs, labor, policy proposals and more.
Joining us on Thursday at 12pm ET on the Guardian US site: business reporter Lauren Aratani, labor reporter Michael Sainato, consumer and corporate rights reporter Heather Timmons, and business reporter Gaya Gupta.
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The US politics team is hosting a series of reader Q&As leading up to the November US midterm elections. See our first three conversations, here:
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