Good morning. Last night home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, set out further planned reforms to the asylum system. A new means-tested scheme, which will see asylum seekers ordered to pay about £10,000 each for their state-funded living costs or be denied settled status in the UK, has been condemned by refugee charities for placing a tax on refugees fleeing war, torture and famine.

Over the weekend, briefings suggested Mahmood also plans to speed up the opening of safe and legal routes to claim asylum, like employer sponsorship, as she bids to quell backbench critics, including former deputy leader Angela Rayner – a belated acknowledgment that the absence of such routes has forced many to make the perilous Channel crossing in those small boats that have become a totem for public and political anxieties around immigration.

Both proposals are part of the immigration and asylum bill, which will go before MPs today as the home secretary faces both ways on what she’s described as a “moral mission”.

For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Sunder Katwala, director of the British Future thinktank, about the challenges facing Mahmood, and whether Andy Burnham can tell a better story about immigration than Keir Starmer. (Fun fact: Katwala is, like Burnham, a lifelong Everton supporter.) First, the headlines.

Five big stories

1. UK politics | Andy Burnham has set out his blueprint to transform the UK with a promise to improve living standards and restore faith in politics through the “biggest rebalancing of power our country has ever seen”.

2. Finance | Crypto firms operating in the UK will be forced to prove they can weather market shocks and hold capital against risky assets as part of sweeping new rules announced by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

3. Germany | Four women and two men have been killed in a shooting at a youth welfare facility ⁠in northern Germany, police said. Two people including the suspected ⁠shooter were arrested.

4. Heatwave | The heatwave wreaking chaos across Europe is a “dramatic warning” to reject climate naysayers, a European Commission vice-president says.

5. World news | A strong aftershock has rattled northern Venezuela, sending terrified residents racing on to the streets five days after the twin earthquakes that killed 1,719 people, left tens of thousands missing and triggered a growing humanitarian emergency.

Shabana Mahmood was made home secretary in September 2025 with the express purpose of projecting a tougher line on immigration, as Keir Starmer struggled to counter Reform’s corrosive rhetoric on Labour weakness.

Soon after, she described illegal immigration as “tearing our country apart” – language which was immediately rebuked as inflammatory. Leaning heavily on her origin story as the child of legal migrants, Mahmood lost no time is setting out sweeping proposals, influenced by the strict framework brought in by Denmark’s centre-left government.

Mahmood’s proposals include speeding up the removal of families, including children, whose asylum claims have been refused, curbing certain claims made under the European convention on human rights, axing the legal duty on councils to provide asylum seeker support and strengthening age assessments. Earlier this year, Mahmood made refugee status temporary, to be reviewed every 30 months.

Described as draconian by charities, veteran Labour peer Alf Dubs, who fled the Nazis as a six-year-old, last week denounced their “performative cruelty” and called on Andy Burnham to rip them up should* he become prime minister next month (*modal verb we’re required to employ until 16 July).

The politics

It’s often overlooked, Katwala tells me, that the government has the power to make significant changes to immigration policy without resorting to legislation. This bill is, in part, “a communication tool”, he says. But communicating what precisely remains contested , because of the “cross-pressure” from two very different election results barely six weeks apart.

The lesson from the English local, Scottish and Welsh elections in May was that Labour faced “an existential threat” to its fragmenting coalition on the left and right, he argues; but after the Makerfield byelection, the narrative appears to have flipped back to general election 2024 territory: win over Reform voters, win the country.

“You have the home secretary’s team saying, ‘Andy Burnham knows I’m right because he’s had to fight Makerfield’” – though Burnham fought a very specific campaign that largely avoided taking on immigration.

There is also an escalating row between Mahmood and home office minister Mike Tapp. Tapp evoked her ire by writing an article arguing migrant care workers should be excluded from plans to retrospectively change the length of time people must work in the UK before they can permanently settle here. Mahmood was reportedly working on similar proposals when Tapp published his op-ed without her knowledge.

Katwala sums this up neatly: “He’s copied my homework and shown it to the new person before I could do it first.” But it’s also a row that exposed the very human costs of the new plans – and how politicians skate over them.

Workers’ rights campaigners and unions have fiercely objected to the plans, which essentially change the rules mid-game for people who prop up our ailing care sector – and they’ve been heard, says Katwala. “There’s a secret plan to back down, and then there’s this fight about who’s allowed to admit it.”

Meanwhile, consider the scale of people directly affected; migrant care workers close to the current five-year threshold for securing settled status told the Guardian yesterday they were devastated by the plans.

How do you stop the boats?

British Future research from May found that only one in six people know that net migration fell last year. So when Keir Starmer referenced a reduction in small boat crossings in his resignation speech, he was referencing a trend this government has singularly failed to make heard above the noise of the right.

As of mid-June, 9,852 people had made the journey across the Channel so far this year – 40% fewer compared with the same period in 2025. This reflects a fall across Europe, prompted by “tough external border policies by the European Union”, says Katwala.

He’s sceptical that Mahmood’s proposals alone will make any further dent in crossing numbers: “What will change people’s decisions are a combination of there being an accessible route you can apply for and knowing that the unauthorised route is unlikely to succeed.”

It’s an approach Katwala fleshed out in a report last autumn, based on an underreported policy breakthrough from the Biden presidency, which reduced illegal crossings at the US-Mexico border by 81% in the course of a year by integrating swift returns of asylum seekers who arrive without permission alongside safe, controlled and capped legal routes.

It recommends a scaling up of the “one in, one out” agreement on cross-Channel migration between the UK and France, which has been heavily criticised by NGOs as random in its application and inhumane. But the report argues an expanded routes/returns model would not only put the smugglers out of business but encourage broader cooperation between European neighbours that could ultimately “save the principle of asylum and refugee protection from the pressures of populism”.

Telling a better story

In his years as Manchester mayor, Andy Burnham repeatedly argued that the government’s dispersal system for asylum seekers has been “unfair and bad for communities”, says Katwala, especially for underfunded areas such as Makerfield where housing is cheapest.

“The way you get a grip on that would be to accelerate the exiting of hotels, say something quite big about ‘never [using them] again’, and leaning into a community sponsorship plan, so immigration comes from the bottom up from now on”.

Involving local people with decisions about who they welcome fits with Burnham’s devolution agenda,and is a sell for voters who want to see compassion exercised fairly. “Potentially, it’s a bridging argument to make, rather than saying we need to sound more like Denmark to make sure we put people off”.

But for Katwala, Burnham’s centrepiece should be “a proper immigration plan every year in parliament” – one that addresses “budget, why it’s good to have some people, help with controlling the impacts, what the numbers are, how they’ve fallen”.

It’s an idea that also speaks to criticism regularly coming from the civil service: immigration policy is siloed with the Home Office when it should be agreed across government.

As well as assessing which immigration policies actually work, Katwala has spent decades considering how best to talk about immigration to the electorate – a task ever more pressing amid the onslaught of online misinformation. “Certainly if you localise and personalise the story of migration in Britain, most people are balanced and see both sides,” he says, giving the example of how the Welsh coastal town of Fishguard welcomed Syrian refugees under a community sponsorship scheme. “But we’ve currently got an online ecosystem and media and political debate that is the opposite”.

“So Burnham’s got to set the agenda more than Keir Starmer, who was always responding to an agenda set by other people.”

What else we’ve been reading

• Quique Kierszenbaum and Julian Borger have written a harrowing piece about the dozens of children killed by Israeli forces in the West Bank in the wake of the 7 October attack. Patrick

• Beeban Kidron was one of the first and most consistent voices speaking up for young people against big tech. Here she sets out – with some input from Pope Leo – how the next prime minister should handle Silicon Valley. Libby

• Paula Cocozza has spoken with finance expert Martin Lewis, among the most trusted people in Britain, about financial scams – and why so many fraudsters use his image to trick people. Patrick

On the pitch

Germany 1-1 Paraguay | Germany crashed out of the World Cup at the hands of a thrillingly dogged Paraguay, following the most extraordinary of penalty shootouts.

Brazil 2-1 Japan | Japan took the lead in the first half but Casemiro equalised with a header and Gabriel Martinelli scored in stoppage time to send Brazil through to the last 16, where they face a tough assignment against either Norway or Côte d’Ivoire.

Netherlands 1-1 Morocco | Morocco also advanced to the last 16 where they face co-hosts Canada after their match against the Netherlands finished 1-1 and was decided by another scarcely believable shootout.

Off the pitch

England | Our data visual journalist Andrew Beasley has been looking into the growing partnership between Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham ahead of their last 32 tie against the DR Congo.

Scotland | Steve Clarke has said he was always going to leave the Scotland job if the World Cup went badly, despite signing a new deal ahead of the tournament.

Podcast | Want to hear about how last night’s games went? Look no further than the Guardian’s Football Weekly podcast with Max and Barry, which is running every day this tournament.

Today’s Fixtures

Côte d’Ivoire v Norway, 6pm on BBC

France v Sweden, 10pm on ITV

Mexico v Ecuador, 2am on ITV

The front pages

“Burnham puts No 10 North at heart of bid to ‘rewire’ Britain”, is the Guardian’s front page today. The Times says “Burnham pleads for ten years to ‘rewire’ UK”, the Mail has “Burnham wants to ‘rewire’ Britain from Manchester base” and the i Paper writes “Burnham pledges growth, housing and No 10 North in his vision for ‘rewired Britain’”. The FT, on the same topic, says “Burnham pledges rewiring of state in bid to spread growth across country” and Metro has “Sparks fly over Andy’s ‘radical rewiring’”.

Elsewhere, the Telegraph leads with “Junior doctors’ pay to hit £100,000”, the Express has “Britain facing summer of ‘no plan’ chaos”, and the Sun leads on its own investigation with the headline “Migrant street”.

The Latest

How would PM-in-waiting Andy Burnham change Britain?

Andy Burnham has set out his vision for the UK in his first big policy speech since launching a bid to replace Keir Starmer as prime minister. The Makerfield MP confirmed he would set up “No 10 North” and pledged to “bring about the biggest rebalancing of power the country has ever seen”. Lucy Hough speaks to the Guardian’s north of England editor, Josh Halliday.

Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

There is nothing quite like a meal by the beach. Whether it’s fish and chips under the watchful eyes of greedy seagulls or fresh ceviche on the Pacific coast in Peru, dozens countries have their own seaside rituals with food. Jimi Famurewa has spoken with five of the most well-travelled chefs he could find and quizzed them about their favourite seaside snacks. The fried red mullet in Cyprus looks particularly delicious.

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.