Good morning. Labour is in the midst of ‘phoney war’ leadership contest. The formal bit has not started yet, but Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting are already actively engaged, Angela Rayner is taking an interest, and Keir Starmer is defending his legacy with renewed vigour. The last thing anyone expected was for Tony Blair to join in.

But he has, sort of, with a 5,700-word essay, published last night on his thinktank’s website, setting out where the former PM thinks his part is going wrong (on most things, it seems) and what he thinks it should do next. Blair, of course, won’t be a candidate in the leadership contest, but ideas matter in politics and this essay is chock-full of them.

Here is Jessica Elgot’s story on what he says. She says Blair has accused Starmer, Burnham and Streeting of putting Labour’s future at risk by abandoning the centre ground, warning that the party’s “almost infinite capacity for self-delusion” means it is likely to lose the next election.

And here is Peter Walker’s analysis.

Peter says the Blair essay is the work of “a man who worries deeply that the party he once led, plus the UK more widely, is stuck in a loop of insular political debate, not even beginning to get to grips with what he portrays as the century-defining challenge – and opportunity – of AI”. But Peter also points out that many in Labour are likely to regard Blair’s “call for a move to the ‘radical centre’ as somewhere between vague and meaningless”.

Quite a lot of what Blair says sounds as if it could have been written by Kemi Badenoch. Any other Tory leader would be championing this as vindication. But Badenoch seems to approach any argument on the basis that whatever someone from the left is saying must always be wrong, and she has not commented yet; perhaps she is still trying to compute how she and a former Labour PM could have ended up in the same place.

Blair has been on the Today programme this morning, and I will post highlights from his interview soon. Dan Tomlinson, a junior Treasury minister, has been the government voice in the broadcast studios and he has had the awkward job of trying to rebut criticism from the party’s most successful election winner. Tomlinson was respectful about Blair, and said he agreed with him on some points, but essentially he accused Blair of resurrecting old arguments about Old Labour v New Labour and not accepting that the world has moved on. He told BBC Breakfast:

I think [Blair’s] essay was about whether we’re New Labour or old Labour – that was a debate that was happening in the 1990s in the UK, which was pretty much around the time I was born. Things have moved on a lot since then.

And, on Times Radio, where he said the Old Labour/New Labour split was “just not where we are today”, Tomlinson said:

If we look at the jobs market, when Tony Blair was prime minister there weren’t really any people on zero-hour contracts. Now there are hundreds of thousands of people struggling with that uncertainty, so, yes, we are passing our employment rights legislation to give people more certainty in work.

There will be a lot more to say about the Blair essay, and reaction to it, as the day goes on.

There is not much in diary today – parliament is in recess – but we will see Starmer today when he signs a new defence treaty with Poland with Donald Tusk, the Polish PM, at an event outside London around lunchtime.

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