Islamabad, Pakistan — 

In the month since the US and Israel began their aerial bombing campaign of Iran, thousands of people have been killed across at least nine countries in a rapidly escalating conflict that is costing economies billions of dollars a day. The world is facing a global energy crisis.

But the scale of this war could get much, much worse.

Iran has fired salvos of drones and missiles at Saudi Arabia, as well as fellow Gulf Cooperation Council members Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman.

Yet, so far, none of these countries have retaliated against Tehran.

“Saudi Arabia has been very patient,” said retired Lieutenant General Muhammad Saeed, formerly the second highest officer in the Pakistan Army.

“If the Saudis retaliate militarily, it won’t be the Saudis alone,” Saeed continued. “That would then put the entire region into flames.”

Saudi Arabia’s direct involvement in the war would have implications that go far beyond fellow Arab countries in the Gulf.

In 2025, Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defense agreement with Pakistan.

During a meeting with the Saudi foreign minister in Islamabad on Sunday, Pakistan’s prime minister thanked his ally for its “remarkable restraint.”

He also assured the Saudi diplomat that “Pakistan would always stand shoulder to shoulder with Saudi Arabia.”

The implication is, if the Islamic Republic of Iran pushes Saudi Arabia too far, it could end up forcing its nuclear-armed neighbor Pakistan to come to Riyadh’s defense.

The Pakistani leadership isn’t exactly spoiling for a fight.

It has been less than a year since arch-rivals India and Pakistan fought a 4-day air-and-missile war against each other. And the Pakistani military has been engaged in cross-border skirmishes with the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan for months.

Pakistan has tremendous incentive to help de-escalate the conflict. And after launching drones and missiles at so many of its neighbors, Iran has very few friends left in the region.

“The least problematic relationship [Iran] has in its strategic environment is Pakistan,” says Kamran Bokhari, Senior Resident Fellow with the Middle East Policy Council in Washington.

“There is no other channel.”

The recognition that the current conflict will only lead to further “death and destruction,” in the words of Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, is what prompted the top diplomats from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to meet him for crisis talks in the Pakistani capital on Sunday.

After those discussions, Dar argued that some kind of US-Iran peace talks hosted by Pakistan were on the table.

“Both Iran and the US have expressed their confidence in Pakistan to facilitate the talks,” Dar said, adding that such a meeting could be possible “in coming days.”

In his statement on Sunday, Dar also cited a recent call with his Chinese counterpart, Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

“China fully supports Pakistan’s initiative to host Iran-US talks,” Dar said.

The Pakistani diplomat is scheduled to fly to China on Tuesday for talks, despite suffering a hairline shoulder fracture in a fall during his meeting with the Egyptian delegation.

But Pakistan’s crisis diplomacy faces graver challenges.

Last weekend, Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen entered the fray, firing missiles for the first time in this round of hostilities at Israel, further expanding the regional war.

Meanwhile, the US is deploying thousands of troops to the Middle East, raising the specter of possible ground operations against Iran.

And there are voices inside Iran, vowing to continue the fight for an extended period.

“This is our war, and we will not stop defending until we teach Trump and Netanyahu a historic lesson,” a senior Iranian security official told CNN’s Fred Pleitgen.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Monday that Iran did not participate in any recent meetings organized by Pakistan with regional countries, saying they take the form of a framework not agreed upon by Iran.

“The meetings that Pakistan holds with neighboring countries are within a framework they have designed themselves, and we have not participated in this framework,” he said.

According to the spokesperson, while the US has conveyed requests for negotiations and proposals through intermediaries, including Pakistan, Iran’s current priority is defending itself against ongoing attacks. “Right now, under conditions in which America’s military aggression and assault continue intensely, certainly all our efforts, all our capacity, are devoted to defending ourselves,” the spokesperson said.

The situation is incredibly fluid and dangerous. Both the Trump Administration and the Islamic Republic of Iran are declaring victory, while simultaneously firing tons of deadly munitions at each other.

But even the warring parties in this conflict have demonstrated moments of restraint.

The risk that this war could expand far further is all too real.