A long-awaited pact between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China for a “code of conduct” in the disputed South China Sea is unlikely to materialise during the regional bloc’s annual gathering of leaders in Manila this week, analysts and officials say.

The agreement would aim to manage tensions and prevent conflict at sea. But talks have dragged on for more than 20 years. In 2023, foreign ministers agreed to work towards finalising the accord within three years.

That deadline fell on 2026 – the year the Philippines took its turn as chair of ASEAN. Under its leadership, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said negotiators have met at least once a month.

But they have fallen short of arriving at a consensus ahead of the summit.

“I just want to say that at this point in time, 80 percent of the document itself is finished,” DFA Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro said on Saturday, adding that there are some ‘salient’ points that still need to be ironed out.

She has previously said that geographical scope is one of the contentious issues. Beijing insists it has jurisdiction over nearly the entire South China Sea despite a 2016 international ruling invalidating that claim.

The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia also have overlapping territorial claims.

A war of words

The Philippines would also like the accord to respect the rights of countries outside the region, according to DFA spokesman Dominic Xavier Imperial. Half of the world’s merchant ships pass through the South China Sea.

But the country may be caught between a rock and a hard place.

“You can’t win it because if you get a good document, you’ll be accused of railroading or it would come across as self-serving. But if it’s a bad document, the Marcos Jr administration will be seen as a weak government,” Aries Arugay, a political scientist at the University of the Philippines, said.

China has consistently accused the United States and its allies, who regularly conduct freedom of navigation operations with the Philippines, of interference.

Tensions between Manila and Beijing have escalated since Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr took office in 2022. The China Coast Guard has repeatedly deployed water cannon against Philippine vessels and maritime confrontations have resulted in collisions and, on one occasion, a Filipino soldier losing a finger.

In recent weeks, the two countries have been engaged in a war of words.

In September, Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro’s public response to a handwritten note rejecting the 2016 South China Sea ruling – reportedly from Beijing’s military attache in Seoul – went viral.

“Perhaps basic decency and behaviour is what China needs to do,” Teodoro, who has been barred from entering China, said.

A month later, Beijing’s ambassador to Manila, Jing Quan, told reporters that if China wanted to use force, “we may easily win. But no, we will not choose force. We love peace”. The statement was made in response to a question about Teodoro calling China a “troublemaker”, but which Marcos said “sounded like a threat”.

What followed was a barrage of social media posts by Philippine officials criticising Jing, with the Chinese embassy replying in kind. Senators called for the expulsion of the Chinese envoy.

And, in late October, China accused Teodoro of a late invitation to the ASEAN defence ministers’ meeting in Cebu. Without ample time to prepare, it said it could only send its Manila-based defence attache.

“When that happened, I think the concern, especially on the part of the DFA, was, ‘We don’t want China not sending their premier. It would not look good on us as a host country,’” Lucio Pitlo, past president of the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies, said.

With just days before world leaders were due to arrive in Manila, diplomats from both sides stepped in.

In a phone call, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Lazaro, his Philippine counterpart, to rein in politicians.

“The Philippines should strengthen restraint over the relevant individuals and send a rational and unified voice on its policy toward China,” Wang said in a statement released by the Chinese embassy in Manila.

Lazaro described the conversation as having been “frank and constructive”.

However, the DFA followed up with a statement saying it found public commentary by certain government officials “regrettable”.

“Whatever personal convictions public officials may hold, their public platforms carry institutional responsibilities,” it said. “They may not pursue preferred approaches toward China, or any other international partner, without regard for the consequences on the government’s overall policy.”

‘Airing dirty laundry’

Some analysts say the spat has further exposed division within the Marcos administration.

“They’re airing dirty laundry out there. It doesn’t communicate coherence. It doesn’t project a unified stance. This could have been an internal memo,” Arugay said.

But Pitlo said the last-ditch diplomatic effort had achieved its objective. Chinese Premier Li Qiang is now attending the ASEAN Leaders’ Summit in Manila.

Despite this, Pitlo shares pessimism about leaders reaching a conclusion to negotiations for a code of conduct in the South China Sea.

“I think with all the concerns about trade protectionism, the disruption in supply chains, economic issues will be very high in the agenda. I think it will be a tall order to get the code of conduct done.”