Oil prices fell and Asian stocks rose on Tuesday as markets bet that the US and Iran would resume negotiations before their fragile two-week ceasefire expired, even as Tehran remained uncommitted to attending fresh talks and both sides traded accusations of violating the truce.
Brent crude slipped 0.4 per cent to $95.09 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate fell 1.7 per cent to $88.07, pulling back after both benchmarks surged more than $5 a barrel in the previous session amid rapidly shifting signals over whether talks would resume and whether ships could navigate the Strait of Hormuz.
Shipping traffic through the strait remains severely disrupted, with up to 10 million barrels a day of crude still shut in, pushing up freight prices and insurance costs.
Oil prices remain well below their $119 a barrel peak for Brent crude earlier in the conflict.
“Uncertainty remains the dominant force in global markets as investors navigate an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape,” said Lukman Otunuga, head of market research at trading broker FXTM.
“The situation around the Strait of Hormuz has amplified volatility, particularly in oil markets where prices are highly sensitive to supply disruptions.”
The ceasefire is due to expire on Wednesday evening Washington time. US president Donald Trump said in an interview with Bloomberg on Monday that JD Vance would travel to Islamabad Tuesday night or Wednesday morning to resume direct talks with Iranian representatives, though Tehran made no immediate commitment to attend.
“The current dynamic is one of a precarious balance of truce,” Mizuho Bank said in a commentary, so “as the ceasefire draws to its 2-week deadline, the all-consuming question is whether both sides can seize on the talks to land on a US-Iran deal that ends the war”.
Mr Trump said it was “highly unlikely” he would extend the truce without a deal. “THE BLOCKADE, which we will not take off until there is a ‘DEAL’, is absolutely destroying Iran,” he wrote on social media, claiming the country was losing $500m a day.
Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the country’s lead negotiator, rejected the framing.
“Trump, by imposing a siege and violating the ceasefire, seeks to turn this negotiating table into a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering,” he wrote on X. “We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats.”
A senior Iranian official later told Reuters Tehran might yet send delegates to talks in Islamabad. Tensions escalated over the weekend after the US navy seized an Iranian cargo ship, drawing vows of retaliation from Tehran, which responded by firing on ships in the strait.
Asian equity markets largely shrugged off the uncertainty.
South Korea’s Kospi rose 2.1 per cent to hit a fresh record high for the first time since the war began, while Japan’s Nikkei climbed 1.2 per cent. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.9 per cent. Taiwan’s Taiex advanced 1.7 per cent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.1 per cent, while Australian shares slipped 0.3 per cent and the Shanghai Composite lost 0.2 per cent.
On Wall Street on Monday, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2 per cent from its all-time high and the Nasdaq snapped a 13-day winning streak, its longest in more than three decades.
The economic consequences of the disruption continued to spread. Kuwait declared force majeure on shipments of crude oil and refined products after the blockade prevented some vessels from entering the Persian Gulf, hindering its ability to meet customer commitments, Bloomberg reported on Monday.
Crude oil loadings from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu fell 17 per cent week on week, averaging around 3.5 million barrels a day.
Despite the geopolitical uncertainty, the broader earnings picture in the US remained strong. Around a tenth of S&P 500 companies have reported first-quarter results, with nearly nine in 10 beating analyst expectations. If the rest match forecasts, overall earnings per share for the index will end up 13 per cent higher than a year earlier, according to FactSet. Several of the biggest US banks said last week they see the economy remaining resilient on the back of solid consumer spending. UnitedHealth Group reports on Tuesday, Tesla on Wednesday and Procter & Gamble on Friday.
Investors also kept an eye on a Senate confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, Mr Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, scheduled for Tuesday. The dollar index held steady at 98.08. Gold edged up 0.1 per cent to $4,824.83.
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