Newcastle United visit Crystal Palace with both clubs under pressure, as Eddie Howe warns expectations at St James’ Park may need to soften while the Opta supercomputer points towards a tight Premier League contest likely to finish level.

Howe’s side sit 13th in the Premier League, seven points off the top five, and are in danger of missing out on European football after a 2-1 defeat to local rivals Sunderland before the international break increased scrutiny on Howe’s position and the club’s direction.

Newcastle’s financial position, shaped by the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules, has fuelled talk that Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Anthony Gordon could be sold in the summer, and Howe admitted that any major departures would have to be reflected in what supporters expect from future campaigns.

Howe stressed that personal commitment to the club is not in doubt, but accepted that financial limits could affect their European ambitions, saying: “If that’s the realityand I’m not saying it isthen that’s the reality. I’ve no issue working with the conditions the club set and finances dictate,” Howe said. “I’ve never had an issue with that all through my career.

Howe also highlighted the importance of clarity for fans and players, adding: “As long as that is made clear to everybody on the outside, and the expectations are aligned within that. Because I don’t think you can have expectations that warp reality. Everything has got to be aligned for the players to enter the pitch and play in their best place, where they’re relaxed and not under undue pressure. That’s fundamentally important.”

The Opta supercomputer rates this match as finely balanced, giving Crystal Palace a 38.8% chance of victory, Newcastle a 34.7% probability, and a draw at 26.5%, reflecting inconsistent recent form on both sides despite Newcastle’s stronger record in this fixture.

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Newcastle have enjoyed the upper hand in recent league meetings with Palace, losing only one of the last nine Premier League clashes between the teams, winning four and drawing four, and keeping six clean sheets in the most recent eight encounters against the Eagles.

The Magpies won 2-0 at St James’ Park in January and are aiming to secure a Premier League double over Crystal Palace for the first time since the 2013-14 season, yet Howe’s team have also dropped off sharply, losing six of their last nine league games and collecting only nine points in that period.

That run since 25 January leaves Newcastle level with Tottenham for the most defeats in the division over that span, while only Leeds, Burnley and Spurs have gained fewer points in their last nine Premier League matches this season, underlining how far the Magpies’ form has dipped since the early months.

Crystal Palace’s home results have also been weak, with just one win across their last 10 Premier League fixtures at Selhurst Park, a 1-0 success against bottom club Wolves in February, and only Burnley and Tottenham have fewer home league victories this season than Palace’s three going into this weekend.

Historically, Selhurst Park became a tougher venue for Newcastle after a difficult early spell; Palace lost the first four home Premier League meetings with the Magpies between 1994 and 2013, but have since been defeated only once in the last 10 such games, with three wins and six draws in that sequence.

Palace enter this league match after an impressive European display, having moved closer to a UEFA Conference League semi-final place by beating Fiorentina 3-0 in the first leg of their quarter-final, with Jean-Philippe Mateta, Tyrick Mitchell and Ismaila Sarr all scoring in a one-sided tie.

Oliver Glasner insisted that Newcastle will still face a strong lineup despite the busy schedule, explaining: “We are not planning to rotate massively. Firstly, because I am convinced that the players are fresher,” Glasner said. “Secondly, the best preparation for a game is a good performance in the previous one. We want to go to Florence with a good performance and a good result.”

Palace have struggled domestically after European nights, winning only one of nine Premier League games immediately following Conference League fixtures, excluding qualifiers, drawing two and losing six, yet Glasner believes there are obvious weaknesses to target in Newcastle’s recent defensive record.

The Palace head coach analysed Howe’s team in detail, stating: “They conceded quite a lot of goals in their last few games before the [international] break, they can often concede two or three goals. If we are sharp and play our style, I am pretty convinced we can create three or four chances, and then it’s about being efficient with itand also controlling their pace.”

Jean-Philippe Mateta is one of Palace’s key attacking options to watch, having recently converted a penalty against Fiorentina and leading his team for shots and shots on target in that match, though Mateta has scored only twice in nine Premier League appearances against Newcastle and has managed just one win in those outings.

Anthony Gordon provides Newcastle’s main current threat, scoring in three consecutive Premier League games for the first time, and the last English player to enjoy a longer such streak for Newcastle was Joe Willock, whose run reached seven matches before ending in May 2021.

Newcastle now turn attention from off-field finance concerns and speculation over potential departures towards stabilising league form at Selhurst Park, while Crystal Palace attempt to build on European momentum despite poor domestic follow-up results, with the data, records and recent performances all pointing towards a closely fought draw.