Elections too often get pigeonholed. The hot take, or simplistic analysis, would have it that just one issue – often the issue the source so happens to be most animated about – will decide the entire result.

Tens of millions of Americans will go to the polls next month. Will they be galvanized by affordability? Maybe it’s Iran. Or healthcare? Taxes, perhaps. Or crime.

It depends, of course, on whom you ask. The US electorate is not a monolith. Just as different voters are grappling with different pressures and realities, they have different priorities and concerns.

Take a look at our voter panel. For Justin Daniels, 45, in Detroit, Michigan, the most significant issue in this election is economic malaise. For Yajaira Martinez, 43, in Pharr, Texas, it’s labor. For Scott Akridge, 60, in Marietta, Georgia, it’s the administration’s brutal crackdown on immigration.

The challenge for any one party trying to win over such a sprawling country is whether it can address enough of these concerns, and obtain the trust of enough voters, to build a coalition.

Which makes the latest polling all the more disconcerting for Republicans, less than two weeks before election day.

The headline takeaways from the most recent Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey were damning enough: as my colleague Shrai Popat reported, most Americans think Donald Trump is using the US presidency to enrich himself, and his approval rating has fallen to a new low.

Beneath the surface, though, the numbers are yet more dismal for Republicans.

Presented with a dozen issues, from affordability and corruption to taxes and transgender issues, respondents were asked which of the two main parties they trust to do a better job of handling them. On all but one – crime – a greater share picked Democrats than Republicans.

On the economy, as the White House continues to hail a “new golden age”, Republicans have lost ground significantly over the past six months. While they commanded a one-point lead over Democrats in April, they are now nine points behind on the issue voters consistently rank as a top concern.

And on immigration, which Trump and his officials have put at the heart of his second presidency, the five-point Republican lead in April has reversed. Almost two years into the administration’s deadly and controversial crackdown, Democrats are now ahead by two points.

In Kansas, where voters have not sent a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932, the party’s candidate, Adam Hamilton, has been pledging to turn down the heat, and ignore partisan battles, amid rising political polarization. Some recent polls have put him ahead.

Midterm elections are almost always tough for Washington’s governing party. There is a conventional playbook for navigating this: senior figures fan out nationwide to reassure the people who backed them two years prior that they get it. They hear them. They’re on it. They just need more time.

The president is indeed fanning out across the country. This week alone, he was in Kansas on Monday and North Carolina on Tuesday, before South Carolina on Wednesday, Iowa on Thursday and Florida on Friday. Georgia and Michigan follow this weekend. JD Vance is on a cross-country tour of his own.

But this is where Trump and his allies depart from convention. Rather than acknowledge the golden age has yet to shine for much of the country – let alone concede that some of his priorities since taking office, like the beautification of Washington, or adding his name to the Kennedy Center, were not among the campaign promises his base had found so appealing in 2024 – Trump has opted for an altogether different response.

He has tried to change the subject.

This summer, as questions over Iran, the cost of living and hardline anti-immigration policies loomed large, the most powerful elected officials in the US tried to stoke fears that communism was rife inside the Democratic party.

In September, the president dangled a $5,000 “Trump dividend” for every US citizen, a proposal that was widely criticized as a pre-election bribe.

Now, in the final stretch of the campaign, those questions very much remain. Rather than address them, Republicans appear to be resorting to a volatile mix of distraction and distortion.

Having spent much of the Iran war, which he launched in February, claiming it was about to end, the president is now pivoting to Ukraine – striking a stunning deal to buy Russian diesel, pausing some sanctions on Moscow and suggesting the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, should quit.

And as France was gripped by fresh unrest this weekend, Vance entered the chat. Demonstrations that began as student protests against crumbling schools and the soaring cost of living were, in fact, evidence of “western liberals” having “imported the third world” into their countries, according to the vice-president.

“And I hope Americans are paying attention. This is the future congressional Democrats seek for your country,” added Vance. Not to be outdone, Trump himself has used public appearances to echo such warnings in recent days, as my colleagues Joseph Gedeon and David Smith reported.

Many Americans are paying close attention – not to France, necessarily, but to the issues that dominate their daily lives. In November, we’ll find out whom Americans trust to address them.

Your questions answered

The US politics team hosted a series of reader Q&As leading up to the midterms. In our final session, Guardian immigration reporters answered your questions about how ICE and Trump’s mass deportation agenda could shape election results.

See our other conversations here:

The makeup of the Democratic party, plus key races to watch

Who are the groups financially backing the candidates in the midterms?

Will the Iran war cost Trump in the US midterm elections? Your questions answered

Will Trump’s economy sink Republicans in the US midterm elections? Our reporters answered your questions

Meet the candidate: Mary Peltola

Mary Peltola’s campaign to represent Alaska in the US Senate has taken her to parts of the huge state’s interior that are inaccessible by road and on the frontlines of the cost-of-living crisis she hopes will make her the first Democrat to win the seat in nearly two decades.

She has been to towns where paper towels retail for $40, a half gallon of oat milk goes for $21 and the cost of a new freezer can be quadruple what it is in the state’s largest city, Anchorage, simply because it’s so complicated to get there. She’s heard of communities along the Arctic Ocean where power bills have climbed to $1,500 a month because they rely on generators for power and the Iran war has pushed the cost of diesel to new heights.

“Nobody can afford that,” Peltola said in an interview.