BRASILIA, Brazil — Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, has pulled off a surprisingly strong showing in Brazil’s first round of presidential elections, giving him momentum in the weeks before an Oct. 25 runoff against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has allied himself with the Trump administration at a moment when Trump allies are taking power in Latin America, while Lula has spoken out against U.S. interference in the Brazilian elections and built a stronger relationship with Beijing.
In a tight race on Sunday, Bolsonaro garnered 47% of the vote to the president’s 45%. Since neither candidate secured an absolute majority, they will face off again in three weeks. Bolsonaro bested Lula by just 2.2 million votes, while other candidates who ran divided 9 million votes between them, leaving those potentially up for grabs.
The winner of Brazil’s first round of voting has never lost an election, though never before has the second-place candidate been so close in the results.
Here’s what to know about the upcoming second round and what it means for Brazil.
The 80-year-old Lula will face an uphill battle to win the presidency for the fourth nonconsecutive term, analysts say.
Edinho Silva, the chairman of Lula’s Workers’ Party, told journalists in Sao Paulo that the president will meet with campaign managers in Brasilia seeking to refine his message delivery, evaluate regional turnout figures, and re-allocate resources to key battleground states ahead of the second round.
TV debates, which were snubbed by both candidates in the first round, will also be key, he said.
“Now it is mano a mano. We will show Brazilians that Flávio Bolsonaro is dangerous and will not run this country in a way they will see their lives improve,” Silva said. “We will try to speak to every democratic force in this country.”
On the opposition side, Bolsonaro is engaging in outreach to political figures, party leaders and regional allies to consolidate support. His team is focusing on building on his already impressive congressional backing: His Liberal Party will have more than one-third of the Senate after their wins on Sunday — which is unusual in Brazil’s fractured political system.
Lula is fighting a trend of frustration with incumbents and a shift to the right in Brazil and worldwide, according to Creomar de Souza, a political analyst with Dharma Political Risk and Strategy, a Brasilia-based political consultancy firm. The once widely popular Lula’s approval ratings plummeted during his third term as Brazilians grew discontent with the higher cost of living and security concerns, but bounced back.
“The spirit of the times is pushing Brazil to another place. Since 2016, Brazil is under that right-wing spirit. It leaned to Flávio this time, but it could have been anybody else on the right,” de Souza said.
“It will be tough for Lula to win. He is rowing from the back when he thought by now they would be winning by a small margin. Can he do it? Yes. Is it likely? It will be very tough.”
Bolsonaro is facing his own challenges. A corruption scandal that shuttered Banco Master exposed Bolsonaro had accepted millions of dollars from a disgraced banker, Daniel Vorcaro, to fund a movie about his father’s life. Bolsonaro admits to the payment but denies wrongdoing.
But Brazilians now used to corruption scandals might not be swayed. Lula himself served more than a year in prison for corruption-related charges from 2018 to 2019.
“They bring Bolsonaro into it, but really everyone’s involved,” said Tom Ferreira, a 35-year-old business administrator in Brasilia, who cast his vote for Bolsonaro.
Ten other candidates competed in the first round, and three have said they will not endorse either candidate. Bolsonaro and Lula will have to make appeals to these voters and those who abstained next time around.
Brazil holds general elections every four years, and voting is mandatory. Those who fail to cast a ballot without justification face a small fine, which doesn’t stop those who don’t want to participate from sitting out.
Sunday’s first-round presidential vote had the highest abstention rate in 28 years — more than 33.4 million voters, or 21.08%. That’s an increase compared to the previous election, when 32.7 million voters did not show up.
Analysts say Lula has a potentially narrow path to victory through boosting voter turnout in the three most populous states — Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro — that also have above-average abstention rates.
To do so, he will have to overcome a strong anti-Lula movement, said Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in São Paulo.
“Bringing voters back will require a lot of heavy lifting in populous states,” Melo said.
Ferreira, the business administrator, is an example of a former Lula voter who swung to Bolsonaro, even though he doesn’t think the senator has strong proposals. He preferred some of the other candidates who didn’t get many votes, like Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado.
“It’s more of a question of change,” he said.
Some voters give some hope to Lula, too.
Brenda Alves de Carvalho, a 27-year-old financial assistant, voted for another presidential candidate, Augusto Cury, in the first round but says she will support Lula in the runoff. That doesn’t mean she is excited about it. She said that the president’s third term was not great, but it is “closer to what we want.”
“I didn’t want to vote at first. I know now I’ll have to vote for one side, because I don’t want to cast a blank vote.”
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Savarese reported from Sao Paulo.
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