The race, which had long been anticipated to be a Lombardo-Ford matchup, has already featured national overtones. Ford and Democrats have sought to tie Lombardo to President Donald Trump, arguing that his policies on tariffs, immigration, the Iran war and more have harmed Nevada and its economy.

Lombardo and his allies, meanwhile, have cast him as a pragmatic Republican who has worked with a Democratic-controlled Legislature on jobs, education and housing.

In many ways, Democrats hope to capitalize this year on some of the dynamics that contributed to their narrow defeat in 2022. That year, like now, the party had an unpopular president in the White House with high inflation and consumer prices. Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak was unable to outrun those factors, among others, and lost by just over 15,000 votes. (He was the only Democratic governor to lose a re-election in 2022.)

But underscoring how closely divided Nevada is politically, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto narrowly won re-election the same year, defeating Republican Adam Laxalt by 7,900 votes. The same split occurred two years later, when Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris lost the state, while Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen defeated her Republican challenger.

“You have to be relentless there, and you have to talk about these pocketbook issues,” said Joshua Marcus-Blank, a Democratic strategist who worked on Cortez Masto’s 2022 campaign and on the Harris campaign’s Nevada operation. “You just have to be relentless on the economy.”

Nevada Democrats have tried to link Lombardo to Trump on economic issues. They include the “one big, beautiful bill” Trump signed into law last year, which will cut Medicaid in a state where about 1 in 3 people are on the program. The law also features tax provisions about gambling that will have a big effect on a state whose economy relies almost exclusively on casinos and hospitality.

Democrats have also argued that Trump’s tariffs, which the Supreme Court struck down, have had a detrimental impact on Las Vegas tourism.

And while gasoline prices have risen nationwide because of Trump’s war with Iran, Nevada’s in particular are among the highest in the U.S., according to AAA.

In a statement after Ford won his primary Tuesday night, campaign manager Zoë Kleinfeld called Lombardo “Trump’s human doormat” who “told working Nevadans breaking their backs to get by that we need to ‘feel a little pain’ while his biggest donors saw increased profits.”

Chris Sloan, political director of the Democratic Governors Association, said on a recent call with reporters that Nevada was a “top pickup opportunity” this cycle.

“We feel confident about this race for a number of reasons. First and foremost, Joe Lombardo is the most vulnerable governor up for re-election in the country, thanks to his failed record and his support for Trump’s cost-raising agenda,” Sloan said.

How Democrats pitch their message to Latinos, who make up about 1 in 5 voters in Nevada, is likely to weigh heavily on their chances of victory in November. Latino voters shifted toward Trump in Nevada in 2024, helping power the first Republican presidential election win in the state in 20 years.

As part of its re-election case, Lombardo’s campaign has pointed to job creation on his watch and to a law he enacted that will fund at least $130 million in what his administration has dubbed “attainable housing.”

Democrats note that despite the job growth under Lombardo, the state’s unemployment rate has ticked up during his four years and that he vetoed several other housing bills the Democratic-controlled Legislature had supported.

In a statement after his primary victory, Lombardo walked a fine line between taking credit for job growth and private investment in the state while also acknowledging the reality of continued economic pressures.

“Our work isn’t finished. There are still families feeling the pressure of rising costs, students who need greater opportunities, and communities that deserve even more economic growth and investment,” he said. “That’s why I’m running for another term — to build on the progress we’ve made, finish the job.”

As the governor of a swing state, Lombardo has also walked a fine line between offering praise for and pushing back against Trump and his policies. For example, when it came to Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” Lombardo lauded many of its tax provisions but also warned Congress not to make changes to Medicaid funding ahead of its passage.

Trump endorsed Lombardo back in November, and Lombardo has praised him in public appearances in recent months. But notably, Lombardo did not appear with Trump in April at an event in Las Vegas where he touted the “no tax on tips” provision of the “big, beautiful bill.”

The Better Nevada state PAC, which supports Lombardo, has attacked Ford over missing work as attorney general — one ad it is running statewide alleges Ford missed 420 days — and taking out-of-state trips paid for by nonprofit groups. Ford is the subject of an ethics complaint investigation by the state Ethics Commission because of some of those trips.

Ford campaign spokesperson Tai Sims told NBC News that the travel in question was due to Ford’s leadership role at the Attorney General Alliance and accused Lombardo and his allies of pushing a “false political narrative” about the travel.

Better Nevada spokesperson John Burke told NBC News: “With Joe Lombardo as governor, graduation rates are rising in schools, job growth is leading the nation, and housing is more attainable for working families. He’s been solely focused on moving the ball forward for Nevada families from all walks of life. That’s a clear contrast to part-time state employee Aaron Ford.”

Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte, the chair of the Republican Governors Association, said in a statement: “In November, Nevadans will choose to build on this momentum and re-elect Governor Lombardo, rejecting the absent Aaron Ford.”

Lombardo also enters the general election campaign with advantages in fundraising and ad spending. From Jan. 1 through Tuesday, the Lombardo campaign and allied groups had already spent about $8.5 million on ads, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, while the Ford campaign had spent $67,000 during the same stretch.

Still, Democrats are optimistic an economic-focused message will be their ticket to success in November.

“You look at a lot of these economic challenges. A lot of them may have helped Trump win the state in 2024, when he said he was going to be able to fix them. But now they’re exactly the same ones that are hanging around the governor’s record,” said Marcus-Blank, the Democratic strategist. “But not only has nothing changed from when Donald Trump came in and said he would fix everything, but also, things just aren’t looking much better from when the governor was elected himself.”