Manchester United host Leeds United with Champions League qualification and relegation survival both on the line, as form, history and data all lean towards a home victory, yet Daniel Farke insists Leeds can draw belief from their FA Cup surge without losing focus on a league run that has left them three points above 18th-placed Tottenham.

Leeds enter Old Trafford without a league win in six Premier League matches, drawing four and losing two, and have not scored in their last four league fixtures, creating the longest current scoreless streak in this season’s competition and echoing a 1982 barren run that came in a campaign which ended with top-flight relegation.

While league results have stalled, Leeds recently ended a 39-year wait to reach the FA Cup semi-finals by defeating West Ham on penalties, earning a Wembley date with Chelsea later in April, and Farke argues that this knockout success should lift confidence rather than distract from three crucial upcoming league games that shape their relegation battle.

Farke stressed that the FA Cup will not draw minds away from Manchester United or the following fixtures, saying: “We take lots ofconfidence from it. I can guarantee no one is distracted right now about the FA Cup semi-finals. I will make sure after this press conference, no one speaks about it. There is no excuse for not being focused on the next three games.”

The Leeds head coach underlined how much the semi-final achievement means to supporters but accepted that it offers no Premier League points, adding that victories in any competition still matter for mentality, and that maintaining a winning feeling is vital as Leeds try to halt their scoring drought and avoid being dragged deeper into the bottom three.

At the opposite end of the table, Manchester United chase a Champions League place and currently stand third, ahead of Aston Villa on goal difference, with interim head coach Michael Carrick winning all six of his Premier League matches at Old Trafford as manager, split between one game in 2021 and five during the 2026 spell.

Carrick, who rarely featured in Manchester United’s rivalry with Leeds during a long playing career, expects a demanding contest after a break since 20 March, and praised the progress under Farke, stating: “I think they are a really good team. I think Daniel [Farke] has adapted from when they were in the Championship, and I was at Middlesbrough.”

Carrick continued his assessment of the visitors by highlighting Leeds’ improvement in and out of possession, saying: “They are a really dangerous team who have evolved in certain things, adapted in certain things. But I think they have had a really good season, and they don’t give a lot away, especially recently. They have defended really well, and it will be a tough game, a really tough game.”

Manchester United vs Leeds United: key players and attacking numbers

Bruno Fernandes again looks central for Manchester United, having been involved in eight goals across only six Premier League appearances against Leeds, with six goals and two assists, the highest tally by any current United player against the club, while also creating 101 chances this season, his third campaign with at least 100 in the competition after 2022-23 and 2023-24.

Leeds will likely rely on Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who leads the club’s league scoring with 10 goals this season and has made 282 off-ball runs in behind, accounting for 54% of his 523 total off-ball runs, yet Calvert-Lewin has not scored in five Premier League matches despite 12 shots and an expected goals figure of 2.3 during that period.

Historic trends appear to favour Manchester United, who are unbeaten in 18 home league meetings with Leeds since a 1-0 defeat under Dave Sexton in February 1981, winning 11 and drawing seven, and have lost only one of the last 20 league fixtures against Leeds overall, with 12 wins and seven draws in that modern sequence between the sides.

Recent league form also supports the hosts, as Manchester United have suffered one defeat in 14 Premier League matches since Christmas Day, winning eight and drawing five, with only leaders Arsenal collecting more points in that span, 31 to United’s 29, while Leeds seek to avoid losing both league games to United in a season for the first time since 1994-95 after January’s 1-1 draw at Elland Road.

Data from Opta suggests Manchester United are strong favourites, assigning a 61.7% chance of a home win, compared with 20.2% for a draw and 18.1% for a Leeds success, underlining the scale of the task facing Farke’s side as they attempt to end a four-game goalless run and turn FA Cup momentum into league resilience against a confident Old Trafford outfit.

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