Now, with six races to go, he sits 102 points ahead. If his lead reaches the magic number of 125 this weekend, nobody will be able mathematically to catch him for the rest of the season.

Three things must happen Sunday for Antonelli to leave Texas as the world champion. First, he must win the race. Second, he needs his Mercedes teammate and chief rival, Russell, to finish ninth or worse. Third, he needs Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton to finish fifth or worse.

Antonelli is on track to break a record set in 2010 by Sebastian Vettel, who became the youngest-ever world champion in a title-deciding thriller. Antonelli was 4 years old then.

“I remember I was playing with Hot Wheels,” he quipped.

He remains the heavy favorite to capture the 2026 crown this year, even if he falls short in Austin.

Antonelli told NBC News that he only recently began to believe he could break Vettel’s record. “Obviously, I’m in an incredible position,” he said. “The mindset is always the same: Whenever I go on track, I want to be at the top and try to win as much as possible, whether I win the championship this weekend, next weekend or in Brazil. Let’s see. But it’s not over until it’s over.”

The final races are scheduled to take place in Mexico, Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi, respectively.

Russell, who is racing in his eighth F1 season, began 2026 as the title favorite. That perception was confirmed when he won the opening race of the season in Australia. But from there his campaign began to fall apart: Antonelli won the next five races and built a lead that he never relinquished.