Japan face Brazil in a World Cup round-of-32 clash in Houston that Tsuneyasu Miyamoto views as the most important game in Samurai Blue history, with a first-ever quarter-final still out of reach but now regarded inside the camp as an achievable target at this expanded 48-team tournament.

The Opta supercomputer places Japan as clear underdogs for Monday’s tie, giving Japan an 18.9% chance of winning inside 90 minutes and a 23.3% probability of forcing extra time, while Brazil who topped Group C ahead of Morocco are seen as winners in regulation in 57.8% of simulations.

Miyamoto captained Japan at the 2002 and 2006 World Cups, including the home tournament, and has led the Japan Football Association as president since 2024, and Miyamoto still believes this current squad can target history, describing the Brazil meeting as potentially the biggest fixture the national team have ever faced on the global stage.

Asked if the match against Brazil would be Japan’s biggest-ever, Miyamoto said: “Yeah, maybe! But the players and the whole team have confidence, even playing against Brazil. We’re really looking forward to this game. We have never reached the quarter-finals, so that is our biggest goal. But we know the team said their goal is to be the champions. That is something we can support.”

Japan arrive with mixed historical data against Brazil, having taken only one win from fourteen previous encounters in all competitions, drawing twice and losing eleven times, yet the mood is shaped by their most recent meeting last October, when Japan came from 2-0 down at half-time in Tokyo to claim a 3-2 friendly victory.

Brazil, by contrast, have shown complete dominance against Asian opposition at World Cups, with four wins from four games, including a 4-1 success over Japan at the 2006 finals, while Japan have struggled against South American nations on this stage, taking one win and one draw from five such matches, with three defeats, the single victory coming 2-1 against Colombia in 2018.

Japan’s path to this knock-out tie followed a strong Group F campaign, where Japan finished second behind the Netherlands after a 2-2 draw with the Oranje, a 1-1 draw with Sweden, and a convincing 4-0 win over Tunisia, and ten different players produced either goals or assists, beating Japan’s previous single-tournament mark of eight from 2022, despite that total coming across four games.

Tuesday’s contest in Houston will be Japan’s fifth World Cup knockout appearance, yet Samurai Blue have never progressed from such a tie, with past round-of-16 exits coming against Turkiye in 2002, Paraguay in 2010, Belgium in 2018 and Croatia in 2022, and three of those conquerors Turkiye, Belgium and Croatia then advanced to the semi-finals at those respective tournaments.

The revamped 48-team format means Japan must now win two knockout matches to finally reach a World Cup quarter-final, but Miyamoto considers that route realistic for this squad, and the combination of a productive group stage, a recent comeback win over Brazil and clearly defined goals inside the camp offers Japan measured confidence as the underdogs prepare for another demanding test.