Israel’s choice: Netanyahu remaining in power or a Palestinian-backed coalition
Emma Graham-Harrison
Hours before the final results from Israel’s elections were in, several things were clear. Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition had lost its mandate, and the opposition had a firm majority.
But most of Israel’s Jewish opposition ruled out governing with Palestinian-led parties, in the course of a racist election campaign in which Netanyahu painted Palestinian citizens as an enemy inside the state.
The self-imposed ban on a broader opposition alliance, if it holds, offers Netanyahu the prospect of turning his defeat into another term in office – or at least a prolonged mandate as caretaker prime minister and perhaps another round of elections.
This confected barrier to unseating Netanyahu became the focus of Israeli media and analysts. “No Clear Government” announced the newspaper Israel Hayom. “Road to Unity Government Has Been Paved”, read an article on Channel 12.
Yair Golan, leader of the centre-left Democrats, attacked that framing. “Netanyahu lost. I know how to count,” he said in a statement calling for a government with Palestinians, who make up about 20% of Israel’s population.
“We must no longer accept Netanyahu’s racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes,” he said. “We have a majority. We have a responsibility. And we have an opportunity to form a change government in partnership with Arab citizens of Israel.”
While Palestinian-led parties do not describe themselves as Zionist, neither do some of the ultra-Orthodox groups who are a key part of Netanyahu’s current coalition.
A survey taken as polls closed on election day showed that a clear majority of opposition voters supported forming a government with the Palestinian-led Ra’am in order to unseat Netanyahu, political psychology researcher Eran Halperin said.
But opposition leaders were silent on Wednesday, as they apparently tried to balance their desire to unseat Netanyahu with promises against working with Palestinians.
Former general Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the biggest opposition party, has not directly ruled out governing with Palestinians but laid out conditions that made it politically impossible for them to join a coalition.
Palestinians have been clearer about their priorities. “We are ready and prepared to pave the way for the ousting of the Netanyahu government,” Yousef Jabareen, leader of the larger Joint List, said on Wednesday. “The change comes through Jewish-Arab partnership.”
Key events
Golan accuses Netanyahu of ‘ugly delegitimisation campaign’ against Arab voters
Hot on Eisenkot’s heels, Yair Golan, the leader of the centre-left Democrats, has accused Benjamin Netanyahu of trying to “undermine the election results through an ugly delegitimisation campaign” targeting Arab voters.
Netanyahu’s Likud party has claimed – without evidence – that parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel have “stolen” the election and demanded the police and the Shin Bet investigate the allegations.
In a post on X, Golan said:
Netanyahu suffered a crushing democratic defeat. The public fired him, and he refuses to accept the verdict of the voters.
Now he is trying to undermine the election results through an ugly delegitimisation campaign against the will of the public, and against the Arab public in particular.
Any genuine suspicion of damage to the integrity of the elections must be investigated to the end.”
Israel’s central elections committee has requested the Shin Bet to investigate alleged foreign interference, the Associated Press reported, citing claims in a letter dated Wednesday of funding by “foreign entities against the Israeli interest” but providing no details or assessment of their validity. The source of the allegations remains unclear, and the committee has requested findings within a week, ahead of the 4 November deadline for certifying election results under Israeli law.
Eisenkot warns against exploiting foreign interference allegations to delay Knesset
Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party and Benjamin Netanyahu’s main rival, has warned political opponents against exploiting allegations of foreign interference in Israel’s election to delay the swearing-in of the next Knesset.
In remarks reported by the Israel news website Ynet, Eisenkot said:
Israel must safeguard the integrity of the elections against any attempt at interference, spin and manipulation, and examine every complaint thoroughly. On the other hand, political actors must not be allowed to exploit the situation and affect the swearing-in date of the 26th Knesset.”
Ben-Gvir calls for arrest of Arab political leaders
Israel’s far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, has called for the arrest of leaders of Arab political parties, citing unsubstantiated claims of foreign funding.
In a post on X, he said the Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic security service, “must order, as early as this morning, the arrest of the leaders of the Arab parties suspected of involvement with Qatari funds”, without clarifying further.
The Shin Bet has not responded to the allegations.
As reported earlier, Israeli police and the central elections committee have said there is no evidence of election fraud.
Israel police dismiss claims election ‘stolen’ by Arab parties – report
Israeli police have dismissed claims by Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party that the election was “stolen” by parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, according to comments reported by Hebrew-language media outlets.
A police source, as quoted by the Times of Israel, said:
Election day passed with very few irregular incidents concerning the integrity of the election, even when compared to previous elections.
It should be emphasised that there is no investigative- or intelligence-based supporting evidence for the claims.
Dean Livne, the acting director general of Israel’s central elections committee, said there was “no basis for allegations of election theft”, the Israeli Kan radio reported. The committee said yesterday that it had received a complaint by the Likud party alleging Arab parties had compromised election integrity, which it would review as part of its routine post-election process.
As vote counting continues, parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel are projected to win 19 seats after Tuesday’s election, driven by record-high turnout among the Arab population.
Israeli news website Ynet is reporting that just over 29,000 of the absentee ballots have been counted so far, out of an estimated 500,000.
According to Ynet, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party is leading among these ballots, with 18.5% of the votes of far. The Together alliance of Naftali Bennet and Yair Lapid comes in second with 15.6%, while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar is third, with 14.8%.
The absentee ballots are afforded to people unable to return to their registered polling stations on election day. They include many in the IDF, as well as diplomats, prisoners and people in hospital.
Experts say that the final tally of the absentee ballots is unlikely to significantly shift the current seat projection.
Yousef Jabareen, the leader of the Joint List – which represents a number of Israeli Arab parties – has told the Reuters news agency his party will seek to use its projected 11 seats “to facilitate getting rid of Netanyahu’s government and hopefully help to change the political situation in Israel.”
Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc is currently projected to receive 48 seats, well short of the 61 needed to form a majority government, but many in his bloc have ruled out governing with Palestinian-led parties which are projected to win 19 seats in total.
Yair Golan, the leader of the centre-left Democrats, and a junior partner in Eisenkot’s bloc, has backed the idea of working with the parties led by Palestinian citizens of Israel. But he is so far the only opposition leader making that call.
Jabareen said the Joint List could not join an Eisenkot-led government because of its support for Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and occupation of southern Lebanon. But he has left open the possibility of bolstering Eisenkot’s bloc from the outside, propping up a minority government through confidence votes.
We have our demands to protect our community, to advance the rights of our community and to promote equality for our community.”
The other main Palestinian party, Ra’am, is led by Mansour Abbas, who joined Naftali Bennett’s government in 2021, the first time an independent Arab party had entered an Israeli coalition. That government collapsed after 18 months, partly because of disagreements over the occupied West Bank.
Abbas has said he would join an Eisenkot-led government. Speaking to Israeli media after voting wrapped on Tuesday night, Abbas said
I believe we can overcome the difficulties … and I think that most voters for the [Eisenkot] bloc do want to see a government with the Ra’am party.”
Throughout the elections campaign, Israel’s far-right demonized Palestinian citizens of Israel and branded Palestinian political participation as a threat to the state.
Eisenkot himself ruled out forming a government with Palestinian parties during the campaign, citing what he called a lack of shared values, including recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state. However Abbas has claimed that senior members of Eisenkot’s bloc discussed a possible deal with him even before the election.
Ameer Fakhoury, a political sociologist at Jerusalem’s Van Leer Institute, said that Palestinian votes may block Netanyahu and make an alternative government possible.
The Jewish opposition may need Palestinian votes while refusing Palestinian partners. That is the central paradox.”
Israel’s currency, stocks and bonds came under pressure on Wednesday after initial election results showed prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc performing better-than-expected but falling short of a parliamentary majority.
With 91% of votes tallied, Israeli media project Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc could win 53 seats, ahead of the 48 forecast for rival Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc but short of the 61 needed for a majority.
Final results are expected on Thursday.
On Wednesday the shekel weakened more than 2%, on course for its worst day since the aftermath of the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks and erasing Tuesday’s gains, when high voter turnout had raised expectations of a change in government.
Tel Aviv’s key benchmark stock index was down 2.5%, its worst performance in more than four months.
Opinion polls ahead of the election showing Eisenkot in the lead had helped gains, with some investors expecting a change in government to improve relations with western allies.
“Israel’s financial markets have reacted negatively to the result,” said William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. He said the initial results offered Netanyahu more paths to remain in power, though any government that emerged was unlikely to be robust.
The next government will probably be fragile.”
If neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can form a government, Israel could be facing another election, with Netanyahu remaining at the helm of a caretaker government in the meantime.
Israel’s left-leaning newspaper Haaretz has published an editorial calling on the country’s opposition bloc to form a government with the Palestinian parties.
With the combined number of Knesset seats for Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition bloc and the grouping of Palestinian parties projected to be 67, the paper writes that Netanyahu’s government has “lost substantial support since the last round of elections.”
The figures clearly point to an unprecedented achievement by the Arab community, which voted en masse for political partnership with Jews. Despite the challenges and reservations about voting, and amidst a particularly racist incitement campaign, a record 19 Knesset seats loudly and clearly declare: We are an inseparable part of this country.”
The editorial goes on to say that there is reason to believe that the leaders of Eisenkot’s change bloc will discard these “19 Knesset seats simply because they belong to Arab voters.”
This would be a slap in the face to the citizens who went to the polls in droves to vote for integration.”
Israel’s choice: Netanyahu remaining in power or a Palestinian-backed coalition
Emma Graham-Harrison
Hours before the final results from Israel’s elections were in, several things were clear. Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition had lost its mandate, and the opposition had a firm majority.
But most of Israel’s Jewish opposition ruled out governing with Palestinian-led parties, in the course of a racist election campaign in which Netanyahu painted Palestinian citizens as an enemy inside the state.
The self-imposed ban on a broader opposition alliance, if it holds, offers Netanyahu the prospect of turning his defeat into another term in office – or at least a prolonged mandate as caretaker prime minister and perhaps another round of elections.
This confected barrier to unseating Netanyahu became the focus of Israeli media and analysts. “No Clear Government” announced the newspaper Israel Hayom. “Road to Unity Government Has Been Paved”, read an article on Channel 12.
Yair Golan, leader of the centre-left Democrats, attacked that framing. “Netanyahu lost. I know how to count,” he said in a statement calling for a government with Palestinians, who make up about 20% of Israel’s population.
“We must no longer accept Netanyahu’s racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes,” he said. “We have a majority. We have a responsibility. And we have an opportunity to form a change government in partnership with Arab citizens of Israel.”
While Palestinian-led parties do not describe themselves as Zionist, neither do some of the ultra-Orthodox groups who are a key part of Netanyahu’s current coalition.
A survey taken as polls closed on election day showed that a clear majority of opposition voters supported forming a government with the Palestinian-led Ra’am in order to unseat Netanyahu, political psychology researcher Eran Halperin said.
But opposition leaders were silent on Wednesday, as they apparently tried to balance their desire to unseat Netanyahu with promises against working with Palestinians.
Former general Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the biggest opposition party, has not directly ruled out governing with Palestinians but laid out conditions that made it politically impossible for them to join a coalition.
Palestinians have been clearer about their priorities. “We are ready and prepared to pave the way for the ousting of the Netanyahu government,” Yousef Jabareen, leader of the larger Joint List, said on Wednesday. “The change comes through Jewish-Arab partnership.”
Israel’s elections committee has said it began counting absentee ballots at 1am local time. That count is expected to last until Thursday evening, with an estimated 500,000 ballots from military personnel and diplomats to be tallied up.
They are not expected to significantly change the results.
Under Israeli electoral law, each voter is assigned a specific polling station and can only vote at that station. However in exceptional circumstances, some voters are allowed to cast their ballot at special polling stations they are not registered at. Among those afforded this exception are soldiers stationed at IDF bases, diplomats working abroad, prisoners and prison guards and people in hospital.
These absentee ballots are transported directly to the Knesset where they undergo a series of checks before they are counted, which is why they arrive in the final count much later.
Final ballots being tallied with results expected to show no clear winner
Hello and welcome to our continuing coverage of the Israeli election.
With 91% of votes now counted, the current results show prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc projected to receive 53 seats, with the grouping of his opponent Gadi Eisenkot on 48 and the Palestinian parties on track to receive a record 19 seats.
The final tally of absentee ballots is not expected to significantly shift the results, and with no grouping managing to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority in the Knesset, Israel could be in for weeks of uncertainty, as both sides try to gather enough support to form a government.
Yair Golan, the leader of the centre-left Democrats, a junior partner in Eisenkot’s bloc, has told Israeli media that he will meet leaders on Thursday for coalition talks. According to the Times of Israel, he will hold talks with Eisenkot, the leading opposition candidate and chair of the Yashar party, and Yair Lapid, the number-two in the opposition B’Yachad party.
This would mark the official start of coalition talks, and Golan has been the only opposition leader so far backing working with the parties led by Palestinian citizens of Israel.
Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, voiced hope that the country could avoid a second election. “We must do everything we can, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections,” said Herzog, who is tasked with determining which candidate to tap to form a government, urging parties to keep “an open mind”.
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Israel’s future hangs in the balance after it became clear that Benjamin Netanyahu has lost his governing majority. His political fate now depends on whether opposition Jewish parties are prepared to forge a common front with Palestinian parties, whose support surged in Tuesday’s historic elections. Indeed, Gadi Eisenkot and his allies face a clear choice: either make a pact with Arab Israeli parties heading for a record result of 19 seats, or hand Netanyahu a political lifeline in the form of new elections or a unity government.
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Yousef Jabareen, head of the Arab-majority Joint List, said the Israeli public had voted for new leadership and “anyone who wants to offer a substantive and genuine alternative to Netanyahu’s blood-soaked government will have to talk to us”. He told AFP that while he was willing to cooperate with an opposition-led government to unseat Netanyahu, he was not open to joining such a coalition outright. The ad hoc support of Palestinian lawmakers could enable Eisenkot to maintain a minority government, although few observers believe such an arrangement would survive for long.
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Israel’s Central Elections Committee said it had received a Likud party complaint alleging that Arab parties had compromised election integrity and would examine the claims as part of its routine post-election review. Netanyahu’s party responded to partial election results showing Arab-led parties could play a king-making role in forming a new government by accusing them – without evidence – of “stealing” the election and demanding that the police and Shin Bet security service investigate the allegations.
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UN rights chief Volker Turk has said that he hopes the next Israeli government will “change course massively” and respect international law. “The message is: don’t continue the current course of warfare where you think you are above international law, because I think that’s what we have frankly seen in the current environment,” Turk told reporters in New York. He added: “Israel has its obligations under international law, international humanitarian law, international human rights law, and they need to respect them, and I hope that the next government will do precisely that and change course massively.”
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