Israel this week has claimed to have established operational control over the strategically vital Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon, after an extended operation against positions of the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.

In a statement on Friday, Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed Israeli forces had driven Hezbollah fighters out of what he said was a network of tunnels ⁠⁠under the contested highland, 15km (10 miles) from the border.

“Prime Minister Netanyahu and I are leading a clear and uncompromising policy, reinforced every day by the [Israeli military]: Israel will not withdraw from the security zone in Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed throughout Lebanon and the threats to the residents of the Galilee are removed,” he was quoted as saying by Israeli media. “The capture of Ali Taher is an important step towards achieving this goal.”

Iran-backed Hezbollah has yet to formally comment on the Israeli claims. However, hours before Katz’s comments, Reuters news agency reported that Iran had warned the United States last month that it would respond forcefully if Israeli attacks on the ridge, which rises 600 metres above sea level (1,970 feet), continued.

Israel and Hezbollah have been fighting, with varying levels of intensity, since October 2023. Israel has twice escalated the conflict – first in September 2024 and then in March this year, following the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Israel has been working to embed its occupation of southern Lebanon since the latest escalation, when it announced the creation of a “security” or “buffer” zone, which rights groups say has involved the deliberate destruction of civilian infrastructure – potentially a war crime – and is responsible for the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Lebanese.

Israeli strikes and ground operations around the Ali al-Taher ridge continued despite a ceasefire agreed in June, after Israel gained control of nearby Beaufort Castle and part of the higher ground overlooking much of southern Lebanon and northern Israel.

According to Mohanad Hage Ali, of the Carnegie Middle East Centre, Israel’s success has partly been down to technological superiority but also due to the complete absence of “inhibition” in their assaults upon Lebanese towns and villages, which have often accrued daily casualty rates of dozens of people.

“There aren’t any consequences to their actions,” he said. “They can demolish entire villages and wipe out whole societies in a way they could never do before. It’s ethnic cleansing.”

Politics of resistance

Pitched as a measure to protect citizens of northern Israel, who Israeli analysts such as Ori Goldberg described as being owed an electoral debt by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of crucial elections later this year, the occupation is also a means of exerting additional pressure on the government in Beirut.

“The Israeli ‘operational control’ over the ridge is no doubt a tactical, even strategic, gain, enabling Israel a better control over southern Lebanon,” said Ahron Bregman, an Israeli security analyst and senior teaching fellow at King’s College London. “From an Israeli perspective, it is a way to put pressure on the Lebanese government: Tackle Hezbollah head-on, or we stay here.”

Nicholas Blanford, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and an authority on the group, said Hezbollah’s lack of comment on the Israeli claims raised a number of questions.

“It could be that a deal’s been done. It could be that Israel is exaggerating what it means by ‘operational control’,” he said, noting that neither the extent of Israel’s military control over the ridge, nor the infrastructure contained within it, is known.

“What we do know is that Hezbollah appears ready to get back into the resistance business, but no longer seems to be making the decisions,” he said. “Those are coming from Iran, who appear to want to keep things quiet for now.”

Analysts also suggested that a lack of a response from Tehran may frustrate Netanyahu, who has invested much of his electoral stock in finishing the war with Iran, an opponent he has characterised as posing an existential threat to the country since at least the early 1990s.

Katz has described an attack against Israel as freeing its military “from all constraints”, and that in such a scenario, the military would “strike all infrastructure – including energy infrastructure – and return Iran to the Stone Age and darkness”, all of which would almost certainly constitute war crimes.

However, how far Israel – diplomatically, economically and militarily dependent upon the US – can proceed beyond rhetoric is open to question.

With Netanyahu predicted to struggle in October’s elections, what happens in southern Lebanon may prove crucial.

“Will Iran come to Hezbollah’s aid?” Bregman asked. “One person for sure – a certain Benjamin Netanyahu prays that they do – as it could even postpone the forthcoming elections in Israel in which, if judged by current polls, he will be defeated.”