In today’s newsletter: Whoever becomes Iran’s next supreme leader, real power is likely to rest in the hands of a hard-line military corps. Democrats have outperformed Republicans in flipping state legislative seats. And snow droughts raise the risk of a dangerous wildfire season across Western states.
Here’s what to know today.
Who is set to be in charge in Iran now that Khamenei is dead? A powerful hard-line military corps
The U.S.-Israeli attack that ended Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s iron-fisted rule also created a power vacuum in Iran for the first time in decades, with a group of clerics convening to cast their votes on who will succeed him.
While front-runners have emerged, the real power is now likely to be in the hands of the heavily-armed force that propped up Khamenei for decades: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The IRGC most recently demonstrated its loyalty to the deceased leader by orchestrating a crackdown on anti-government protesters that left thousands dead.
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Trump officials are also considering arming Kurdish opposition against Iran’s regime.
In the U.S., a majority of voters disapprove of how President Donald Trump is handling the situation in Iran and believe he shouldn’t have taken military action against the country, according to a new NBC News poll.
Fifty-four percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of Iran, compared with 41% who approve and 5% who say they either don’t have an opinion or aren’t sure. Though support is mostly polarized along party lines, a small but notable slice of Republicans is unhappy with the decision to launch a war in the Middle East.
More about who could lead Iran here. And follow the latest in our liveblog.
More Iran news:
- The Senate blocked a resolution that would have restricted Trump’s ability to carry out further action. The House is also expected to vote down a war powers resolution.
- Shipping has slowed to a crawl through the Strait of Hormuz, passage to one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, threatening to snarl international trade.
- Iran’s retaliation is isolating Tehran and angering its Mideast neighbors.
- This Oscar-nominated filmmaker wants to go back to Iran — even if prison and war await.
Democrat Alex Holladay won a state legislative seat in an Arkansas special election Tuesday, marking the ninth time since Trump took office that the party has flipped control of a state legislative seat in a special election. In that same time, Republicans have not gained control of a single Democratic state seat.
Democrats say the trend portends well for them ahead of this year’s midterms as they exceed expectations in winning off-cycle contests. Meanwhile, Republicans are searching for answers to a yearslong question of how to get their coalition to the polls without Trump on the ballot.
As for Democrats’ sky-high turnout in the Texas primary, NBC News’ Steve Kornacki breaks down what the millions of primary votes cast mean for November. The more than 2.2 million votes cast for state Rep. James Talarico or Rep. Jasmine Crockett in a red state were impressive considering Republicans had a contentious contest of their own on Tuesday.
But Talarico faces a waiting period after incumbent Sen. John Cornyn emerged more resilient than expected on Tuesday, heading to a runoff with Texas’ scandal-plagued Ken Paxton. Democrats hope the GOP would choose the scandal-hit attorney general as its Senate nominee.
Trump says he will endorse “soon” in the GOP Senate primary in Texas, adding that the candidate he doesn’t back should drop out.
More about Democrats’ special election winners here.
More politics news:
- The Justice Department quietly shelved a Joe Biden autopen investigation that Trump demanded.
- The House Ethics Committee launched an investigation into embattled Rep. Tony Gonzales, who is accused of having had an affair with a staffer. Meanwhile, House lawmakers killed an adjacent effort to release all congressional sexual misconduct and harassment reports.
- The number of House retirements this cycle is the second-highest since record-keeping began nearly a century ago.
With time running out, snow drought and warm weather raise wildfire risk in the West
A combination of unusually balmy winter weather across much of the Western United States and one of the worst snow droughts in decades has experts bracing for what could be a particularly intense wildfire season.
The snowpack is well below average for this time of year in nearly all Western states, with little time remaining to add snow cover and depth in the mountains before spring thaws begin.
Last weekend’s Bluebell Fire prompted evacuation warnings in Boulder, Colorado and scorched approximately 1.5 acres. The blaze was contained quickly, but it offered a glimpse into how vulnerable the state could be once conditions become warmer, dryer and windier.
Read why low snowfall has dire implications for the region.
Read All About It
- The DOJ expects to extend plea deals to a dozen defendants in the sprawling NBA-Mafia rigged poker case.
- The nation’s largest detention facility in Texas has a measles outbreak and is closed to visitors and attorneys, ICE confirmed.
- Michael Jackson is accused of child sex trafficking in a new lawsuit.
- GLP-1s could help curb substance use disorders, from alcohol to opioids, a study suggests.
Staff Pick: With partners who were in the country illegally, some American women choose to move to Mexico
Anywhere from 16 to 22 million people in the U.S. live in mixed-status families, composed of a combination of undocumented immigrants and citizens or lawful residents. So the three stories my colleague Katie shared about American women making the tough choice to move to Mexico with their partners are extremely common, and will grow more so over time.
For one of the women, making the move to Mexico was an easier legal path than risking her husband being detained — but the move came with significant sacrifices, as well as a language barrier.
“I lost everything; everything’s gone. All my Christmas stuff gone that I saved for years, all my Halloween decorations,” Muñoz said. “But it’s OK. My husband’s going to be safe.”
— Marissa Martinez, newsletter editor
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