Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen launched at least 12 fresh missile attacks on the Yemeni provinces of Hadramout and Marib on Friday, following drone and ballistic missiles launched at Saudi-led coalition and Yemeni government military sites, killing at least 30 soldiers in the country, on Thursday.

Separately, a senior Saudi official told journalists that a Houthi attack on southern Saudi Arabia on Thursday had wounded 11 civilians, including a young child.

On Friday, a senior Saudi official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that intelligence suggests the Houthis and Iraqi armed groups may launch new attacks under the supervision of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including on energy infrastructure, ports and airports.

The attacks, the deadliest in years in Yemen’s civil war, mark a major escalation in the regional conflict which has been reignited by the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran at the end of February. They follow an increase in violence in Yemen seen in recent weeks.

Since the Yemen war broke out in 2014 when the Houthis seized the capital, Sanaa, hundreds of thousands of people have been killed.

Saudi Arabia led an Arab coalition in a campaign to dislodge the Houthis from 2015 until a 2022 truce, but the Houthis currently remain in control of the capital and other parts of Yemen.

What is behind the latest tensions?

What has happened?

Yemeni government sources told Al Jazeera that at least 30 government soldiers were killed and 15 others injured when Houthis fired eight missiles from al-Jawf governorate, north of Marib, targeting al-Thiniya and al-Abr in Hadramout and al-Rouk in Marib on Thursday. The sources said casualty numbers were expected to rise.

Al Jazeera’s Yemen affairs editor Ahmed al-Shalafi reported that the missiles struck at 2pm local time (11:00 GMT) on Thursday, hitting camps belonging to several government military formations, the Homeland Shield Forces, the Emergency Forces and the First Military Region in Hadramout.

The Homeland Shield Forces were formed in 2022 with Saudi backing and number tens of thousands of troops. They guard the Marib-Hadramout frontier and the Saudi border. The formation also fought separatist Southern Transitional Council forces earlier this year.

The Emergency Forces, created by presidential decree in late 2025 under Saudi-led coalition supervision, secure the land borders and anti-Houthi fronts in al-Jawf and Hadramout.

The First Emergency Division Command added that casualties had been high on Thursday because troops had gathered for a morning training exercise.

Then, on Friday, Yemen’s State TV reported that the government’s air defences had downed a number of drones launched by the Houthis above Marib.

Reporting from Sanaa on Friday, Al Jazeera’s Yousef Mawry said that since the early morning, the Houthis had reportedly launched at least 12 more missile attacks on the Yemeni provinces of Hadramout and Marib.

“These are two of the Yemeni government’s strongholds that have come under attack over the past couple of days by the group, and according to Houthi officials, these missile and drone attacks will continue against what they called Saudi allies, or proxies, over Yemeni land,” he said. He noted that the group is referring to the internationally recognised Yemeni government.

“According to their latest statements, the Houthis believe the government is coordinating with Saudi Arabia for a potential ground offensive against Houthi positions,” he said.

Meanwhile, according to the Reuters news agency, early on Friday, Major-General Turki al-Maliki, the spokesman for the Saudi-led military coalition supporting Yemen’s internationally recognised government, said the Houthis had attacked Saudi Arabia’s southern Najran province, injuring seven Saudis, one Yemeni, two Egyptians and one Pakistani national.

The victims included a four-year-old child who suffered second-degree burns.

Al-Maliki also accused the Houthis of indiscriminately shelling civilian areas in violation of international humanitarian law.

Why are the Houthis attacking Saudi Arabia now?

The Iran-backed Houthis took control of Yemen’s capital Sanaa in 2014. Since then, they have been fighting the Saudi-backed, internationally recognised government located in the port city of Aden.

These tensions have only worsened since the US-Israel war on Iran began with strikes on Tehran on February 28.

On July 13, hostilities escalated when Yemen’s government attacked Sanaa airport to prevent an Iranian aircraft from landing. The Yemeni government accused Iran of using flights to Yemen as cover to send equipment to the Houthis.

Speaking at the United Nations Security Council on Monday, Yemen’s ambassador to the UN Abdullah al-Saadi said the plane attempting to land in Sanaa was linked to Iran’s IRGC and had “personnel, know-how, and military and dual-use equipment”.

The Houthis then launched missiles at Saudi Arabia, whose coalition backs the government. Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree told journalists that this attack had ended the “de-escalation phase” of Yemen’s war.

Then on July 20, the Houthis imposed a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, disrupting oil shipments diverted to the Red Sea and also attacked Saudi state oil giant Aramco in the coastal cities of Jizan and Yanbu.

The Houthis accused Saudi leaders of imposing “an unjust and oppressive siege” for nearly 12 years, “plundering our resources and imposing a comprehensive blockade on our ports and airports by land, sea and air”.

Multiple Saudi-flagged vessels and oil facilities have since been targeted by attacks. The Houthis’ Saree posted on X last week that the group had targeted the Saudi oil tanker, NCC Ghazal with ballistic missiles, forcing it to change course.

In 2023, following Israel’s attacks on Gaza, the Houthis also disrupted global shipping by attacking Israeli-linked ships transiting the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in protest over the war on Gaza.

The escalating conflict has sparked fears that the Houthis could fully block Bab al-Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is a major supply route.

Last week, Saudi Arabia announced the formation of a new international alliance to guard the Red Sea from attacks on shipping by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.

Dozens of countries have been invited to join the coalition and, on Thursday last week, Saudi Arabia said 13 countries had agreed.

What is the response to the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia?

On Tuesday, the Houthis also claimed responsibility for an attack on Najran airport in Saudi Arabia, which Saudi officials say is part of a broader escalation in which the Iran-aligned group has struck Saudi military, infrastructure and shipping targets.

Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi, the secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council, denounced the strikes on the Najran region “in the strongest terms”, calling them “terrorist attacks”.

In a statement released on the organisation’s website on Friday, he said: “Targeting civilians is a heinous crime and embodies the criminal approach of these militias.”

The secretary-general added that the attack represents “a flagrant violation of international law and international humanitarian law, and a crime that warrants accountability”.

He stressed that the GCC supports the measures Saudi Arabia takes to “protect its security, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the safety of its citizens and residents”.

Ahmed Nagi, the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Yemen, told Al Jazeera that there are two main drivers behind the current tensions.

“The first is domestic. After more than four years of a de facto truce between the Saudi-led coalition and the Houthis, the political track has largely stalled, especially following the Houthis’ Red Sea campaign after October 7. As negotiations lost momentum, the Houthis appeared to believe they were in a stronger position to increase pressure on Saudi Arabia. They not only revived their previous demands but also introduced new ones, while gradually escalating their military actions,” he said.

He noted, however, that the situation cannot be understood through a domestic lens alone.

“Regional dynamics have been just as important. The tensions between the US and Iran have played a significant role in shaping the timing of the Houthi escalation. The Houthis appear to be trying to support Iran by increasing pressure on global shipping through the Red Sea,” he said.

Why is Saudi Arabia preparing for an offensive?

On Friday, a senior Saudi official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that Saudi, US and Middle Eastern countries’ intelligence had warned that the Houthis and Iraqi armed groups, under the supervision of Iran’s IRGC, could soon launch coordinated attacks on Saudi civilian sites, including energy infrastructure, ports and airports.

The official said the reported threats could be intended to disrupt ongoing diplomatic efforts. They are particularly alarming, he said, as Riyadh has continued to support de-escalation and a negotiated settlement of the war in Iran, adding that mediation efforts appeared to be moving “in the right direction”.

With the risk of a wider conflict in the region rising, Saudi Arabia has begun deepening its security partnerships and is due to sign a defence pact with Pakistan and Turkiye.

The Saudi official also told Reuters that Saudi-US cooperation remains “very high” at all levels, including operationally with US Central Command, and said Saudi Arabia was prepared to take all necessary measures to respond to any aggression.

Will more strikes against Saudi Arabia take place?

Despite this, the Houthis and Iran have not issued any new threats towards Saudi Arabia.

Hadi al-Amiri, head of Iraq’s Badr Organization, part of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), has called on Iraqi resistance groups to postpone retaliatory operations against Saudi Arabia.

On July 29, joint strikes by Saudi Arabia and the US targeted PMF headquarters in Iraq, killing more than 20 people and wounding at least 30 others. The strikes were in response to drone attacks on Saudi territory, which appeared to have been launched from Iraq.

In a video broadcast by Iraqi media, al-Amiri called on fighters to postpone any attacks in response to what he called “American-Saudi” aggression on Iraq and to overlook the wounds for the “sake of Iraq’s highest interests”.

How is Iran involved?

For decades, Iran has been building an “axis of resistance” of like-minded groups to oppose Israel and the United States across the region.

The alliance has included armed entities and government actors such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen, along with other groups in Iraq and Syria.

The Houthis joined Iran’s war against Israel and the US towards the end of March by launching attacks at northern Israel and have since threatened to expand their attacks in the Red Sea.

On July 16, according to Reuters, Iran also reportedly asked the Houthis to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the US struck Iranian power infrastructure – something it has done multiple times during the conflict.

A source close to the Houthis told Reuters that the group had completed preparations to attack shipping by deploying missiles and drones near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the gateway to the Red Sea, in Yemen’s highlands overlooking Hodeidah and the Gulf of Aden, and was awaiting the ⁠order to begin strikes.

Nagi said that Iran has longstanding ties with the Houthis and provides support on multiple levels: military, political, diplomatic and economic.

“What’s changed in recent weeks is that Tehran’s backing has become much more visible. Instead of staying behind the scenes, Iranian officials are now openly endorsing Houthi demands and publicly defending their position,” he said.

“This sends a broader message that Iran’s leverage extends beyond the Strait of Hormuz to another critical maritime chokepoint: the Bab al-Mandeb,” he added.

Could this affect oil prices and global shipping?

The Houthis’ attacks on Saudi oil companies and in the Red Sea have prompted fears that global oil and shipping could be affected.

Yemen’s foreign minister-designate for the internationally recognised Yemeni government, Afrah al-Zouba, told journalists on July 28 that the Houthis are aiming to replicate Iran’s ⁠strategy in the Strait of Hormuz by controlling shipping flows in the Red Sea’s Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

“The Houthis want to copy the Iranian model, and this will shut down two main straits, the gateways into the ⁠Gulf and Red Sea,” he said.

The Bab al-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indian Ocean, and – much like the Strait of Hormuz – a significant portion of the global economy depends on the unimpeded flow of maritime traffic through it.

Approximately 30 percent of global container traffic passes through the Red Sea, as well as 12 to 15 percent of overall global trade.

Nagi explained that Saudi Arabia was able to switch to relying on its East-West Pipeline as an alternative route during the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But uncertainty about the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb directly affects that alternative corridor.

“The immediate effects are higher insurance premiums, increased security costs and more expensive shipping. If the Houthis continue expanding their attacks further north in the Red Sea, these costs are likely to rise further,” he said.

Oil prices, already volatile since the US-Israel war on Iran began in February, rose further on Friday.

Brent crude rose to $83.34 a barrel by 06:34 GMT after settling by more than $3 on $82.49 a barrel on Thursday. Earlier this year, oil prices rose above $100.

What happens next?

Crisis Group’s Nagi said that while tensions are rising, he does not think it has reached a point of no return.

“There is still a window to contain the escalation, but it requires a multi-track approach. On the regional side, de-escalation between the US and Iran would remove one of the key drivers behind the current Houthi escalation,” he said.

“At the same time, there is still room for the Saudi-led coalition and the Houthis to reach understandings on issues such as Sanaa airport, Hodeidah ports and other economic files. Progress on these issues could help restore the de facto truce and create safeguards against another cycle of escalation,” he said.

“That said, if we’re being realistic, the current indicators point more toward further escalation than containment. At the moment, the signs suggesting a return to wider conflict are stronger than those pointing to a successful de-escalation, even though the opportunity to prevent it has not yet disappeared,” he added.