Mario Jung does not fit the profile of a political hardliner. The 59-year-old banking clerk, who lives in Magdeburg in eastern Germany, has voted for the country’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the past.

But he blames former Chancellor Angela Merkel for pushing the CDU to the left and on Sunday, in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, he will back the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

“I am a conservative, and the main reason for me to vote for the (far-right) AfD is the economy,” he told Al Jazeera.

He also agrees with the AfD’s hardline immigration policy.

“All illegal immigrants, those whose applications have been denied, and criminal immigrants as well – they have to be deported; there is no question about it,” he said.

The regional elections pose a test for Germany’s political establishment, with the AfD in contention for top positions in the state government.

In Saxony-Anhalt, it is poised to become the first far-right force to head a German state government since World War II, with the AfD’s leading candidate, Ulrich Siegmund.

He was dubbed “Germany’s most dangerous man” by the influential magazine Der Spiegel. Before becoming a politician for the AfD, Siegmund was a member of the CDU.

The party has been classified as “far-right extremist” in Saxony-Anhalt by Germany’s domestic intelligence service. The AfD is leading the state by a wide margin in the polls, expected to win more than 40 percent of the votes.

The conservative CDU is far behind at just above 20 percent, followed by the Left Party at 12 percent, the Social Democrats at 7 percent and the Greens at 5 percent. Depending on which smaller parties clear the threshold to enter parliament, the other parties could potentially form a majority without the AfD. But German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) recently ruled out cooperation with both the Left Party and the AfD, a party whose officials have used Nazi slogans.

Nationalism at the fore

In its election platform, titled “The Country First”, the AfD calls for the abolition of the right to asylum, the confiscation of cash and assets of asylum seekers and mass deportations.

Anyone who insults German identity or the “historical-cultural entity Germany” could face a prison sentence, according to the campaign. The party also seeks to ban the “Antifa” movement, cancel public broadcasting and reverse the shift towards renewable energy.

Founded in 2013 as a Eurosceptic party in the aftermath of the European Union financial crisis, it gained ground during Merkel’s 2015 decision to admit about a million refugees, many of them Syrian.

It has since shifted further right, dominated today by a nationalist wing and hardline factions in the east, hardline immigration positions and opposition to sanctions on Russia.

The AfD has also repeatedly politicised attacks by asylum seekers or Germans with foreign descent.

While critics argue that such incidents receive excessive media focus, the deadly car attack at Berlin’s Pride parade in July keeps pushing the topic into the headlines. AfD blamed the “catastrophic migration policy of the last few years”, but the attacker had been born in Germany.

Why is AfD on the rise?

Experts have put forward various hypotheses to explain the party’s popularity.

Last year, it became the second-largest party in the Bundestag, securing 21 percent of the vote in federal elections.

In Germany’s eastern states, which were formerly part of the German Democratic Republic (GDR) and the Eastern Bloc and underwent a radical transition after reunification, structural factors are at play, analysts say.

The region is characterised by a lack of jobs, a shortage of local doctors, the decline of public transportation, depopulated villages, and a persistent perception that the eastern states are governed by distant liberal elites in Berlin.

Thomas Biebricher, a professor at Goethe University Frankfurt, believes the main reason for the AfD’s success “is widespread dissatisfaction with the political situation, the federal government and the overall economic situation in the country. At the same time, the AfD has managed to nominate a lead candidate who is doing a very good job,” he told Al Jazeera.

While the party is often seen as most popular among workers, its success is also linked to “parts of the capitalist class” who are pushing a neoliberal agenda, Biebricher said.

“There are influential AfD supporters who believe that capitalism is over-regulated, that taxes should be lowered, and that the state, overall, should simply intervene less.

“If it were to enter government, it would be the first time since 1945 that a party with a far-right agenda would enter government at the state level,” he added. It would “also cause considerable damage to Germany’s image”.

For several years, the CDU has been debating nationwide how to deal with the AfD. At the local level, the “principle of non-cooperation” – also known as the “firewall”- has already been abandoned.

Martin Schroder, a professor of social sciences at Saarland University, believes that the AfD’s migration policy is crucial for its success.

Together with a team, he conducted a study based on data from 2014 to 2024.

“Concerns about immigration explain support for the AfD nearly 10 times as much as actual or perceived economic disadvantage,” he told Al Jazeera.

Another key election takes place on September 20 in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the AfD is also polling at about 37 percent.

Like Saxony-Anhalt, the northeastern state was formerly part of the GDR. Berlin will also go to the polls that day. In the capital, which is also one of Germany’s 16 federal states, the CDU currently leads with 21 percent, followed by the Left Party at 19 percent and the AfD at 18 percent.