As the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to inflate energy expenses, American motorists are confronting historic fuel prices over the Labor Day weekend, coinciding with the official launch of political campaigns for the midterm Congressional elections.

The national average price for gasoline is expected to reach $4.03 per gallon on Labor Day, comfortably exceeding the previous record of $3.83 set in 2012, according to GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan.

“Gasoline, while not at all-time records, is at its highest level ever recorded this late in the calendar year, meaning Americans could for the first time ever see a national average price of gasoline above $4 per gallon on Labor Day,” De Haan wrote in a recent blog post.

On Thursday, the nationwide average stood at roughly $4.13 per gallon—up by almost a dollar compared to the same period last year, according to data from GasBuddy. Industry analysts note that $4 per gallon serves as a psychological and financial tipping point for many consumers.

Because fuel costs are among the most immediate economic indicators visible to the public, they heavily influence voter perceptions of the nation’s financial health. With prices remaining above $4 a gallon for a substantial portion of the year, the issue has created sustained pressure for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party.

Trump has repeatedly promised to reduce energy costs. In recent weeks, he intensified his criticism of fuel retailers and refiners, alleging that they are profiting off elevated pump prices. However, on August 14, Trump stated that Americans should be prepared to pay a “tiny little bit more” for gasoline to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

The holiday weekend traditionally serves as a final summer trip for millions across the country, with heavy road and air travel anticipated.

Rising pump prices mirror trends in the crude market, where prices climbed back above $90 a barrel this week after renewed military actions involving the US and Iran sparked fresh worries over potential supply disruptions.

At the same time, costs for distillates—such as diesel and heating oil—have also escalated, driven by ongoing attacks on Russian refining infrastructure that have heightened global supply concerns. Retail prices consistently follow crude oil trends, as raw crude represents the primary expense in refined fuel production.

The surge is forcing consumers to adjust their spending habits.

“It’s completely out of control,” said Randi O’Brien, 57, as she refueled her vehicle near Evergreen, Colorado.

Western and northern states including Colorado, Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and North Dakota have seen some of the sharpest price hikes since the war began. California, Hawaii, and Washington currently report the highest average pump prices nationwide.

O’Brien, who commutes roughly 40 minutes round trip daily to her job at Home Depot, said she could currently only afford to put $15 worth of gasoline in her truck. She partially attributes the high costs to an increase in US fuel exports following the war with Iran, which led foreign nations to seek American energy sources. According to the US Energy Information Administration, exports of refined products have grown by more than 10 percent year-over-year.

“We have our own fuel here, yet we’re sending it elsewhere,” she said.

Motorists across the country are expressing similar frustrations. Facing rising costs for basic necessities like groceries, Houston resident Madison Moore, 28, said she is scaling back her plans for the holiday.

“It used to always be easy to pack up the car, go to Galveston out to the beach and have a cookout or something. People don’t want to move like that anymore though,” Moore said at a Houston gas station. “You would think that our government can do a little bit more for their people when they actually need it.”

Industry analysts stress that persistent price pressure is fundamentally a supply issue. Kuan Dosmuratov, a research analyst at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, pointed out that fears of shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up crude prices and refining margins, while strikes on Russian refineries have tightened fuel stocks globally.

Government policy options to increase fuel availability remain scarce. US refineries are operating at 98 percent capacity, marking the highest rate since 2018. Federal officials have already extended a Jones Act waiver to streamline domestic waterborne fuel shipments and granted an early end to summer-blend gasoline mandates to contain prices.

Even so, domestic gasoline inventories dropped by 1.2 million barrels last week to 205.7 million barrels, falling below the five-year August average of 217.6 million barrels, the EIA reported.

Other transportation expenses are mounting rapidly as well. Diesel prices in the US touched new records this week, while Labor Day airline passengers are facing fares roughly 20 percent higher than last year, according to AAA data.

“The public doesn’t obsess with diesel but I see a better than even chance that retail numbers will surpass the all-time record of about $5.82 per gallon from June 2022,” said Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser at Gulf Oil. “It presents a worrisome future.”