Aston Villa travel to Italy on Thursday for a Europa League quarter-final first leg against Bologna, with Unai Emery’s team viewed by many analysts as major contenders to win UEFA’s second-tier competition this season.

Opta’s supercomputer gives Aston Villa a 32% chance of lifting the Europa League trophy, the highest probability among the remaining clubs, reflecting both the squad’s current form and Emery’s specialist record in European knockout football.

Emery, though, highlights the danger posed by Bologna and head coach Vincenzo Italiano, stressing that recent results show Bologna are serious opponents, especially after eliminating Roma and displaying strong tactical organisation throughout their European campaign so far.

During Italiano’s spell in charge of Fiorentina, the current Bologna coach reached the Europa Conference League final in consecutive seasons, losing to West Ham in 2023 and Olympiacos in 2024, while also building a reputation for effective cup football.

Emery notes that this record, combined with Bologna’s domestic cup success last year in Italy, underlines why Villa cannot underestimate the Serie A side, particularly in two-legged knockout ties where small details often decide progress.

“The first thing we can look at is they beat Roma, and they deserved to beat Roma,” Emery said. “They are competing with this coach, and he played three finals in the last three years. He’s very competitive in the knockout rounds in Europe, he played two finals in the Conference League in a row with Fiorentina, losing but playing two finals against West Ham and Olympiacos. Last year, they won the cup in Italy. This is the argument; we must respect them a lot.”

Emery’s own European background is extensive, with four Europa League titles across previous clubs, a tally that puts Emery ahead of Giovanni Trapattoni, who won three, when considering both the Europa League and its former version, the UEFA Cup.

Aston Villa also carry a strong continental tradition, having won the European Cup in 1982, and Emery believes that history means the current group must aim for trophies, seeing this Europa League run as part of a wider responsibility to the club’s past.

“Aston Villa has a massive history in a lot of things, and one remarkable moment was when Aston Villa won the European Cup,” Emery told reporters on Wednesday. “It’s something that makes us feel responsible, that we’re at a club that was successful in Europe. Individually, I’m thankful for the teams I have coached with the possibility to win this title, or in the Champions League or the Conference League. Each moment is a different challenge. Everything we did before is done and to do it again is the challenge we have. Every day, with the players and with Villa, is about building something for the history of the club. To win in Europe is very, very difficult.”

Emery stresses that previous medals do not guarantee success, and describes each campaign as a fresh test, focusing daily on improving Aston Villa’s level so the club can add another European honour to its record.

With the first leg in Italy and the return match to follow in Birmingham, the tie against Bologna offers Aston Villa and Emery another chance to extend their Europa League story, though both acknowledge that progressing will demand high discipline, respect and consistency across both games.