The four-day bank holiday weekend is expected to be the busiest Easter on the roads in four years, despite a surge in fuel prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

Drivers are planning nearly 21m leisure journeys between Thursday and Easter Monday, according to a study by the RAC and the traffic analytics specialists Inrix.

With more than 1m additional trips planned compared with last year, this Easter is set to be the busiest on the roads since 2022, which was the first full getaway after the Covid lockdowns ended. And signs that the weather could warm up in time for the weekend mean the number of ad hoc journeys could rise, the RAC said.

The AA predicted that traffic during the Easter period would peak on Thursday, when many schools break up. Just over half of people expect to travel short distances of under 50 miles. About one in five plan to visit friends and family, one in 10 want to head outdoors for walking or cycling, and 5% expect to visit DIY stores or garden centres.

Lee Morley, an AA expert patrol, said: “After what feels like a very long, wet winter, lots of families are looking forward to the Easter break.”

With better weather forecast, routes to the coast are likely to be especially busy, as well as roads around town and city centres and retail parks.

Network Rail has alerted travellers to “lots of planned essential engineering works and upgrades” over the bank holiday weekend, which is likely to increase road traffic. Engineers will work on more than 270 upgrade projects across Britain over Easter.

The Association of British Travel Agents said most of those whose trips had been affected by the war had switched to alternative destinations including the western Mediterranean, Caribbean, and direct-flight long-haul trips to Thailand and South Africa.

The RAC said nearly a third of drivers (31%) were increasingly worried about higher fuel costs since the US-Israeli war on Iran began on 28 February.

With the price of crude oil soaring above $100 a barrel, the average price of petrol in the UK has risen above 150p a litre for the first time since May 2024, according to the RAC.

Filling up a 55-litre family car with diesel this Easter will cost at least £19 more than it did on Good Friday last year, while a tank of petrol will be almost £8 more, with further increases likely.

Even so, most people are not changing their travel plans: only 6% expect to drive shorter distances and another 6% say they will not drive at all because of the higher prices, according to the RAC.

The RAC’s Sean Kimberlin said: “Despite fuel prices rising dramatically due to the conflict in the Middle East, our research suggests Easter remains incredibly important to people as it’s often the first chance to get away since Christmas or to meet up with friends and family.”

The port of Dover estimates 37,000 cars will travel through the port during the Easter holidays between this Thursday and Sunday 19 April.

The port’s chief executive, Doug Bannister, said: “The port is preparing for a busy Easter getaway period, with an early increase in traffic expected from [last] Friday, followed by the predicted getaway volumes through to mid-April.”