After a series of court rulings gave Republicans a decisive advantage in the national redistricting fight, Democrats’ options for a counterpunch before this year’s midterms are limited.
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So they are shifting their attention to battles for control of legislatures in key states this fall to help lay the groundwork for new congressional maps for the 2028 election cycle.
A U.S. Supreme Court decision last month has paved the way for a raft of GOP-controlled states with majority-minority districts represented by Democrats to redraw their district lines, adding to the list of favorable new maps for Republicans that were enacted over the past year at President Donald Trump’s urging. And one of Democrats’ most robust responses was struck down in Virginia last week by the state Supreme Court.
Given that Democrats have full control of fewer state governments than Republicans — and that in several of those states, commissions, not lawmakers, are in charge of drawing maps — the party faces a lack of alternatives and time to launch new redistricting efforts before November, when control of the narrowly divided House is at stake.
But 2028 could bring a series of new opportunities for Democrats, particularly if they make significant inroads at the state level this year.
“Democrats are going to do whatever we can in order to push back in 2026, but the bulk of redistricting pushback that you will see from Democrats will now happen in 2028,” said CJ Warnke, the communications director for House Majority PAC, which is among a trio of Democratic groups coordinating efforts around flipping legislative chambers this fall.
The cohort of groups, which also includes the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and The States Project, is targeting at least a dozen states with legislative chambers Democrats can take control of or bolster their majorities in to ease the path for redistricting pushes starting next year.
The effort will largely be led by the DLCC, which announced in December it planned to spend $50 million to flip up to 650 legislative seats across 42 chambers in about two dozen states.
The group has set its sights on flipping control of both legislative chambers in Wisconsin, where Democrats made steady gains in 2024, as well as in Arizona. Minnesota is another target: Democrats need to flip just one seat in the state House, in addition to protecting a narrow advantage in the state Senate, to control both chambers. If Democrats remain in power as governors in all three this fall, the party would have a trifecta across those states. The group is also investing in flipping the state House in Michigan and is looking to build supermajorities in both chambers in Washington state.
“The Callais decision is a seismic shift in the electoral landscape that exposes yet again the importance of Democrats building a strong foundation of power in the states,” DLCC President Heather Williams said, referring to the Supreme Court’s decision last month.
“Every election now matters for redistricting and democracy, and it has never been more important to have a national strategy to flip statehouse majorities across the country,” she added.
House Majority PAC is also planning investments in legislative races in those states, as well as in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. In New Hampshire, Democrats would need to flip both chambers, as well as the governorship this fall. In Pennsylvania, Democrats must protect a narrow majority in the state House and would have to pick up several seats in the state Senate.
“In 2027 and in 2028, Democrats will be aggressively pursuing new maps across the country in order to push back on this Republican power grab,” Warnke, a spokesperson for the group, said. The group’s investments are aimed toward “ensuring that Democrats are able to draw maps that push back on the Republican attempts to totally disenfranchise voters across the country,” he added.
The States Project will invest in legislative races in all of those states, too, as well as in Nebraska and Oregon. In Oregon, Democrats currently control both chambers and the governorship. But the party needs a supermajority in both chambers to advance a redrawn map, and it is currently a few seats short in the state Senate. In Nebraska, meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to cut into Republicans’ supermajority in the state’s unicameral Legislature.
Ultimately, the only successful map-drawing push from Democrats for the 2026 cycle came in California, where voters approved new district lines in a special election last year that could result in up to five additional seats for the party. In Utah, a court-ordered map created a new solidly Democratic seat.
By comparison, Republicans are in position to pick up as many as 14 seats via six new maps that have been enacted over the past year, with the most recent coming in Tennessee. Earlier this week, the Supreme Court also cleared the way for Alabama to implement a new map that eliminates a Democratic-held district. And a new map proposal in Louisiana would do the same
Mandara Meyers, the executive director of The States Project, said her group had been preparing for nearly a year for the Supreme Court’s ruling and its domino effects, but that “unexpected things that happened along the way” — like the Virginia Supreme Court ruling — threw a wrench into the plans and upended expectations for how Democrats’ mid-decade redistricting efforts had been moving along.
“But we are working to meet this moment by aiming to expand our footprint and be in as many states with opportunities to build governing power,” Meyers added. “We’re looking at states where gains in state legislative power this November could secure as many as nine congressional seats as we look towards 2028.”
Democrats are also eyeing states where they already have full control for 2028 redistricting campaigns. They are optimistic about placing a measure on the ballot in Colorado this fall that would implement a Democratic-friendly map for the 2028 and 2030 elections, bypassing the state’s independent redistricting commission. In addition, Democratic governors in other states — notably, JB Pritzker in Illinois and Kathy Hochul in New York — have suggested recently that they’re likely to tackle new maps after the midterms.
Still, Democrats are likely to encounter obstacles. Independent redistricting commissions in states such as Arizona and Michigan present additional hurdles the party would need to clear even if they win a trifecta.
Not every Democratic-led state may be eager to pursue a redraw. For instance, a redistricting bid this cycle met resistance in the Maryland state Senate, with the Democratic leader of the chamber raising concerns it would backfire.
Plus, the GOP will aggressively be looking to continue its redistricting efforts after this year’s elections. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp on Wednesday called for a special legislative session in June for lawmakers to take up a new congressional map for the 2028 cycle. And in Mississippi, Gov. Tate Reeves has said he expects the Legislature to redraw lines between now and 2027.
But some Republicans are warning they must not take their eyes off maintaining, or expanding, their power in state legislatures.
“Republicans may have the upper hand in the redistricting arms race for now, but Democrats have already made clear their strategy for taking the House in 2028 will be prioritizing state legislative races in 2026, and they are prepared to spend whatever it takes,” said Mason Di Palma, a spokesperson for the Republican State Leadership Committee.
“Investing in state legislative races is now one of the most important and cost-efficient political investments conservatives can make because the lawmakers elected in 2026 will hold the map-making pen in 2027 and 2028 and shape the political landscape for years to come,” he added. “Our party cannot afford to be complacent.”
During a news conference on Capitol Hill on Wednesday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said his party’s “resolve is more robust now than it ever was,” even after its recent setbacks.
“We’re not going to unilaterally disarm,” Jeffries said. “Not now, not ever, and this redistricting war is just getting started.”
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