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In today’s edition, Ben Kamisar breaks down Democrats’ new presidential primary order. Plus, Kristen Welker explores the political pressure the ongoing Iran war is putting on Republicans.

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— Adam Wollner

South Carolina set to kick off Democrats’ 2028 primary calendar

By Ben Kamisar

South Carolina is poised to hold the first Democratic presidential nominating contest in 2028 after the Democratic National Committee’s powerful rules committee voted to keep the state at the front of the line.

The move, recommended by the rules committee today and set to be presented to the full DNC at its summer meeting next month, settles a monthslong battle among a handful of states.

Nevada and New Hampshire, which also vied to be the lead-off state, will hold the second and third nominating contests, respectively. And Iowa, which had long hosted the first-in-the-nation caucuses, is out of the early voting window altogether.

The dates of the first six 2028 contests:

Jan. 22: South Carolina

Feb. 1: Nevada

Feb. 8: New Hampshire

Feb. 15: New Mexico

Feb. 22: Michigan

Feb. 29: Virginia

The new calendar significantly changes the calculus for Democratic presidential candidates, replacing two heavily white states at the top with states with more diverse populations, while still preserving three of the four traditional early state contests. And adding two more states before Super Tuesday means there will be more delegates up for grabs before March.

The struggle between Nevada and South Carolina turned tense in recent weeks, particularly among some Democrats who framed the debate as one between two key pieces of the party’s base. Latino voters make up a large portion of the Nevada electorate, and Black voters are the foundation of South Carolina’s Democratic electorate.

“When South Carolina goes first … the Deep South goes first, Black voters go first,” South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Christale Spain said this week during an interview with political commentator Roland Martin. “Black voters are the backbone of this party, and so we should continue to elevate Black voters’ role in the process, not push it further back.”

Meanwhile, New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Ray Buckley criticized the DNC’s decision, noting that state law requires them to hold the first presidential primary.

“Today’s vote shows that many party insiders have learned nothing from 2024,” Buckley said in a statement. “New Hampshire has a proven track record of testing our candidates with a rigorous, fair, and efficient process, yet those qualities did not prevail. This committee’s vote does not change the realities governing New Hampshire’s primary, which are beyond the control of both this committee and our state party.”

Read more →

5 months into the war and 100 days from the midterms, Republicans are feeling the pressure

Analysis by Kristen Welker

With the United States now nearly five months into a war that was supposed to be over in weeks, and the midterm elections just over 100 days away, pressure is growing for President Donald Trump to find a way out.

Gas prices have climbed to more than $4 a gallon nationwide, and Americans are continuing to feel the impact on their grocery bills. An estimate from Moody’s Analytics found that the Iran war has cost roughly $1,200 per household.

The bottom line is the Iran war is deeply unpopular. A recent Fox News poll found that 56% of registered voters oppose U.S. military action against Iran and 66% disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war. And 67% disapprove of his handling of the economy.

Some GOP strategists say this all risks putting some potential battleground races out of their reach in November. Republicans have consistently said gas prices need to come down by August or Labor Day at the latest. As those benchmarks get closer, anxiety is growing.

Trump has said he is not letting politics influence him, and administration officials confirm he’s steadfast in that mindset.

It became clear overnight that the economic pressure that has resulted from the Iran war is not stopping the president from moving forward with another policy priority: imposing fresh tariffs.

At least 60 trading partners, including longtime allies Mexico and Canada, will now face levies on goods produced by “forced labor.” The administration said the move is meant to punish those countries for not importing American goods, made by workers who are often paid higher wages. With voting in the fall elections fast approaching, the White House is running short on time to convince the public things are on the right track.

Join me this Sunday on “Meet the Press,” when I’ll speak with U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz and Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., about all of this and more. Steve Kornacki will also break down the numbers driving this year’s midterms.

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Annelise Hanson.

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