Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Natasha Korecki writes that some Democrats fear the party’s election expectations are getting too rosy. Plus, Ben Kamisar dives into one big factor working in the GOP’s favor.

— Adam Wollner

Why Democrats may need a gut check on their midterm ambitions

Analysis by Natasha Korecki

Democrats have had an extraordinary run of good news with less than a month until Election Day.

Polls show President Donald Trump’s approval rating in free fall amid growing angst over his handling of the economy and the Iran war. Key groups, like Latinos, are abandoning Republicans in droves.

Prognosticators increasingly shifting race ratings in Democrats’ direction has spurred a litany of headlines about the potential prizes awaiting the party.

Can they snag a Senate seat in Kansas? What about South Carolina? In addition to the Texas Senate contest, can Democrat Gina Hinojosa knock out Republican Gov. Greg Abbott?

“I’ve been trying to tell yall: Don’t sleep on Mississippi,” the longtime Democratic strategist James Carville posted on X last week, referring to the Senate race in a state Trump carried by 23 points two years ago.

As crunch time hits these campaigns, Democrats have critical questions before them: Should they reach for the stars? Or are they getting starry-eyed?

We’ve all been here before. A poll-driven media cycle that paints a far rosier picture for one party (Republicans in 2022) or another (Democrats in 2024).

One Democratic national strategist working on races across the country said the party needs to pump the brakes on its optimism.

“The Senate is far from secure,” said the strategist, who was not authorized to comment publicly. “We should remain aggressive in Maine and Michigan, single-digit presidential states that are not yet secure organizationally.”

The Democrat, who added that Alaska’s Senate race is also worth sustained investment, noted that Republicans have an enormous spending advantage in many of the contests that will determine which party wins the majority. (More on that below.)

There are other reasons Democrats should proceed with caution. While Latino voters are swinging away from Republicans, there are still big questions around whether they will turn out for the other side.

That goes for other critical voting blocs, too. Despite deep dissatisfaction with Trump, as well as notable energy on the left this year, the Democratic Party as a whole is still receiving low marks.

And as polling shows depressed Republicans may sit it out, there’s also a pivotal group of undecided voters who in the end could come back to the GOP, particularly in red states.

Still, it is Republicans who are on the defensive with four weeks to go. Last week, a top GOP super PAC canceled its remaining ad buys in the North Carolina Senate race, a sign that Democrats are on track to flip the seat. The group, Senate Leadership Fund, has also begun directing money to Senate contests in deep-red Kansas and South Carolina.

And if Democrat James Talarico weren’t a threat, Republicans wouldn’t have, in September alone, dumped $122 million into a state Trump won by nearly 14 points in 2024.

“It’s a toss-up race right now. It’s 50-50,” a Republican working on Ken Paxton’s Senate campaign said.

But the bottom line is to win the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats, including at least two that Trump won by double-digits in 2024. And they’d need to stretch even further into Trump territory if they aren’t able to unseat longtime GOP Sen. Susan Collins in Maine or defend seats in battlegrounds like Michigan and New Hampshire.

The Democratic strategist put it succinctly: “We should sleep on Mississippi.”

☀️ Related read: Florida Democrats try to regain their mojo after years of Republican dominance, by Matt Dixon

Republicans fight red-state midterm chaos with hundreds of millions in late money

By Ben Kamisar

Republicans are swamping House and Senate races with an unprecedented flood of late ad spending as the party tests whether hundreds of millions of dollars can buy it some reprieve from the eroding political environment that’s threatening longtime GOP states and districts.

Since the start of September, Republicans have made more than $700 million worth of new advertising bookings in congressional races alone, according to an NBC News analysis of data from AdImpact, a political ad-tracking firm. That’s new money on top of what had already been committed to those races in ad reservations made over the summer.

By comparison, Democrats booked more than $430 million in new ad reservations across those races last month.

The disparity is greatest in the battle for the Senate majority, where almost 7 of every 10 newly booked advertising dollars are coming from Republicans. The gap is smaller in the House, where a bit less than 6 in 10 of those new ad dollars are coming from the GOP.

Read more →

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Lauren Zola.

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