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In today’s edition, our Capitol Hill team dives into the latest disagreement among Democrats over Israel. Plus, Andrea Mitchell examines whether Ukraine can build on the advantages it has developed in the war with Russia.

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— Adam Wollner

House Democratic leaders split over U.S. aid to Israel

By Scott Wong, Sahil Kapur and Kyle Stewart

House Democrats were deeply divided this afternoon over a vote to end United States aid for Israel, an intraparty fight that split the party’s top two leaders.

The rare public disagreement at the party’s highest levels highlights growing turmoil among lawmakers and the party base about how to handle U.S. relations with Israel. It pits a rising progressive wing calling for cutting off assistance to Israel, at least until the country’s government changes its approach to Gaza, against center-left Democrats who are reluctant to upend a decades-long alliance.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., voted against an amendment from Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., that would cut off aid to Israel, calling the measure “overly broad.” But House Minority Whip Katherine Clark of Massachusetts, the No. 2 Democrat, voted for it.

Despite her reservations, Clark said, “It is clear that the status quo is not tenable,” and added, “We should not provide a blank check for military aid to any country that does not comply with U.S. law, interests, and values.”

The amendment was rejected in a 104-314 vote, with 103 Democrats joining Massie in voting yes and 98 Democrats joining 215 Republicans in voting no. Ten Democrats voted “present.”

The No. 3 House Democrat, Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, and Vice Caucus Chairman Ted Lieu, both of California, stuck with Jeffries and voted against the amendment. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. voted for it, as did Assistant Minority Leader Joe Neguse, D-Colo.

Some Democrats said they were wrestling with whether to support the amendment all the way up to the vote.

Rep. Ami Bera, D-Calif., who serves on the House Foreign Affairs and Intelligence committees, said he would vote “present” because he supports the U.S.-Israel relationship but does not “condone the Netanyahu government’s conduct of the war in Gaza and the resulting humanitarian crisis, its actions in Lebanon, its failure to confront escalating settler violence in the West Bank, and its role in drawing the United States into the current war with Iran.”

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Why the next 6 months are critical for Ukraine’s future

Analysis by Andrea Mitchell

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a notably successful meeting with President Donald Trump at the recent NATO summit in Ankara, likely an implicit recognition by Trump that the wartime leader now does ”have the cards” in his fight against the Russian invader.

Ukraine has stunned Russian President Vladimir Putin’s far larger war machine by creating a novel industry of autonomous drones and even marketing them to well-armed Gulf states who’ve discovered they cannot rely solely on the American superpower against Tehran’s airstrikes.

Trump made headlines at NATO by granting Ukraine permission for the first time to license Patriot missile technology so it can produce the best-of class air defenses. As Zelenskyy said in a speech last week, Ukraine has regained control and unfettered access to the Black Sea. And it is pushing Russia back on the ground. But with the conflict now being fought in the air, Ukraine desperately needs Patriot defensive systems in the next six months if it is going to maintain its current advantage amid an onslaught from Russian ballistic and cruise missiles.

At the Aspen Security Forum yesterday, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice praised Ukraine’s remarkable ability to create new modes of warfare to fight a larger foe. She expressed concern that Putin, suffering enormous casualties and potential domestic concerns about the war’s human costs, would launch mass casualty attacks against Ukraine’s cities. Given Ukraine’s resilience, cyber capabilities and an infusion of European Union financing after Putin ally Viktor Orbán’s defeat in Hungary, she was optimistic Ukraine could now produce its own Patriot missiles in time.

But other Ukraine advocates are worried. Two former Pentagon officials responsible for air defenses tell NBC News the supply chain for manufacturing Patriot interceptors takes years, not months. The motors and other components for the interceptors are enormously complicated. Germany, which was given licensing rights a year ago, has yet to produce a single Patriot, the former U.S. officials say. Plus, the U.S. itself is short on interceptors and weapons because of the Iran war, and is unlikely to share with Ukraine. Though former Defense Secretary Mark Esper suggested during the Aspen Security Forum that Greece, a NATO member, has extra Patriots it could send to Ukraine.

The bottom line is that Ukraine now has real leverage in any future negotiations with Russia. Most analysts in the U.S. and Europe assess that Putin is on his back foot and might be more open to a deal. Zelenskyy has just announced his second Cabinet shake-up in as many years to prepare for the critical six months to come.

But if Putin continues to hammer Ukraine’s populated areas as he has in recent weeks, its years of sacrifice since Russia invaded could have been in vain — putting at risk the principle of the world community standing together to defend the sovereignty of an independent nation.

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Annelise Hanson.

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