How pre-election surveys failed to predict David Crowley’s upset in Wisconsin’s Democratic governor primary. Karoline Leavitt is stepping down as White House press secretary. And Paramount’s billionaire owner threatens to move the company out of California.

Here’s what to know today.

Why the Wisconsin primary results didn’t match the polls

David Crowley’s win in Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary was one of the most unlikely resurrections in state history.

The Milwaukee County executive dropped out of the race on July 8. Five weeks later — after a moment of panic set off an unlikely series of events — he was his party’s nominee.

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The moderate won against democratic socialist Francesca Hong by less than a percentage point. Notably, Hong consistently led pre-election surveys by nearly 20 points. She may have ultimately exceeded expectations for a left-wing candidate in a purple swing state, but she dramatically underperformed those polls.

It might be tempting to look at the results and conclude that the polls are simply overestimating the strength of progressive and democratic socialist candidates. But what’s really going on is more complicated than that.

For one, primary elections often have many more undecided voters, and people pay much less attention to the races — meaning those who have not made up their minds headed into election day can be easily persuaded. It’s also difficult to predict who a person might vote for based on variables like race and education, as well as who will show up to vote on election day.

Any of these factors in isolation can lead to error, but the 20+ point margin in Wisconsin means several of them combined to create a seismic miss.

Read the full analysis here.

More politics news:

• For subscribers: Longtime Rep. John Larson’s defeat in Connecticut makes him the 10th House incumbent to lose a primary, an unusually high figure made possible by redistricting and reckonings among both Republicans and Democrats.

• For subscribers: The Trump administration is offering to help states guard their election systems ahead of the midterms — after it gutted the main federal office tasked with securing elections.

• For subscribers: A year ago this week, President Donald Trump deployed the members of the National Guard to address a “crime emergency” in Washington, D.C. Taxpayers have spent at least $600 million. And residents call it an unnecessary “occupation.”

 Karoline Leavitt to step down as White House press secretary

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt will leave the administration at the end of the month to “spend more time with her beautiful young children and family,” Trump announced. Leavitt, 28, was the youngest White House press secretary in history and has served in the role since the beginning of Trump’s second term.

Leavitt, who gave birth to her second child in May, said in a post on X that she “felt in my heart” that she couldn’t balance the demands of the press secretary job with being “the best mom my two young children deserve.”

Read more about Leavitt’s tenure.

Threat to move Paramount rattles an already battered Hollywood

In a move that alarmed Hollywood, Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison has signaled that he is willing to move the studio out of California if that’s what it takes to close his $110 billion deal to buy Warner Bros. Discovery. Ellison said that he would begin moving the company on Oct. 1 unless California Attorney General Rob Bonta opened settlement talks over the antitrust challenge to the merger, a source said.

Bonta, who is leading the lawsuit involving 11 other states, accused Ellison of trying to “blackmail” the state to push the deal through. One person in the industry said a Paramount move would be a “travesty,” while groups are urging the two sides to negotiate a resolution.

But even if Ellison makes good on his threat, uprooting one of Hollywood’s oldest studios, along with its workforce and decades of production infrastructure wouldn’t be easy. Here’s why.

Europe basks in total solar eclipse

For the first time in almost three decades, millions of sky watchers across Europe were treated to a solar eclipse, with parts of northern Spain experiencing its full path of totality. Amid cheers from a crowd in Villalibado, Spain, NBC News’ Raf Sanchez described the sight: “It looks like somebody has just punched a hole in the sky.”

See photos from the celestial event.

Staff Pick: The WNBA is bigger than ever. But what’s happening off the court is grabbing the attention.

This WNBA season was supposed to be a celebration. Thirty years ago, the league began under doubt about its survival; now, its games bring in record revenue and audiences who want to watch the best women’s professional basketball players in the world. Yet in the heart of the season, the league’s basketball has often taken a backseat. How did the WNBA find itself defending itself against controversies? I wanted to find out. It turns out, this isn’t the first time. — Andrew Greif, sports reporter

Read All About It

• For subscribers: The announcement of Bob Iger and Joshua Kushner’s $12.5 billion purchase of the Los Angeles Lakers was a last-minute pivot that blindsided some team and league sources.

• For subscribers: Tennessee is poised to put a man to death today in its first attempt since a botched execution in May. State officials still haven’t answered a key question.

• Two soldiers were killed after a military helicopter crashed in Texas.

• Nick Reiner was indicted on murder charges and has pleaded not guilty in the deaths of his parents, Rob and Michele Reiner.

• A winning Powerball ticket worth $1.04 billion was sold in Illinois.

NBC Selected: Online Shopping, Simplified

Back-to-school season is here, and we spoke to experts about how to save big on supplies, including special discounts for students, teachers and parents. Plus, shop the best back-to-school shoe sales and save big on back-to-school tech for a limited time.

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