A gas rig in the North Sea. An oil field in Texas. A solar panel factory in China. They can feel a world away, but your energy bill says otherwise.

In January, it could jump by more than a quarter – around £460 extra a year for the typical UK household – according to the latest forecasts from the big suppliers British Gas, EDF and E.ON.

For the second time in four years, a war thousands of miles away is landing in British inboxes.

Since US and Israeli strikes on Iran in February effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices have soared.

Winter is expected to push them higher still: demand for gas is rising just as Europe’s winter gas stores are at their lowest since records began in 2011.

And there’s a bigger threat looming over all of this: the warming climate. Cutting carbon emissions is essential to limit future warming and avoid the most damaging effects of climate change. But keeping bills down while cutting emissions is proving hard – and not just for the UK.

As world leaders gather this week in Antalya, Turkey, for COP31, the UN climate summit, the same tension is playing out around the world. Energy and climate policy has become the front line in a contest between the world’s two energy superpowers, leaving everyone else squeezed in between.

America is betting on fossil-fuel molecules: pumping record volumes of oil and gas and pressing its allies to buy them. China is betting on electrons: flooding the world with the solar panels, batteries and electric cars that can replace those fuels.

Whether the bet on fossil fuels or renewables wins will shape not just what the world pays for energy, but how fast it can cut the emissions that are heating the planet.

The UK, which already buys nearly a quarter of its imported gas from America and much of its clean energy kit from China, is being pulled both ways. So which path will it take? Is there a middle way and what will it all mean for your bills?