Holiday companies have predicted a surge in bookings for UK summer breaks after a jump in interest from Britons fearful of flight cancellations linked to the Iran war.
Summer bookings are expected to rise in the coming weeks amid warnings of possible jet fuel shortages and resulting cancellations by airlines across Europe.
Raoul Fraser, the chief executive of Lovat, a holiday park operator with sites across south-west England, said traffic to its website had increased after reports of jet fuel warnings last week. “It is definitely having a positive impact for us,” he said.
“Our holidays bookings are up over 30% this year. It is a little bit like Covid, when people couldn’t get away and now they just want the certainty of a nice holiday in the UK.”
The holiday resort company Butlin’s, which has sites at Bognor Regis, Minehead and Skegness, said it was seeing “strong growth for the summer school holidays”.
However, its chief executive, Jon Hendry Pickup, said many families were still booking their holidays closer to the time, due to travel uncertainty and cost pressures.
“Normally we get somewhere in the region of 15% to 20% of people booking a holiday in the last four weeks before they come. Now it is roughly double that,” he said.
Jeremy Hipkiss, the managing director of the holiday parks company Landal UK, said: “Increasingly guests are choosing destinations closer to home that are easy to reach by car or public transport, giving them greater control over their plans.”
Hipkiss said that Landal’s parks in Cornwall, Scotland and Lincolnshire were “particularly popular”.
Peter Munk, the chief executive of Willerby, a specialist caravan manufacturer based in Hull, added that the cost of living pressure was also putting people off overseas travel. Inflation, which was steady at 3% in February, is expected to increase after the Iran war drove up global energy costs.
“It’s about the reality of inflation kicking off again,” he said. “Most people still want a holiday, so it might be that they have fewer days or move closer to home and not have that dream holiday.”
Travel spending fell in March for the first time since the pandemic travel restrictions lifted in 2021, dropping by 3.3%, according to data from Barclays. Spending on travel agents fell by 4.6%, airlines by 4.1%, and public transport by 2.9%.
However, Sinead O’Connor, a travel analyst at the research company Mintel, said even with the cost of living pressures, appetite for holidays remained strong.
She said its research showed 52% of Britons surveyed planned to holiday in the UK, with 49% heading overseas.
“We expect the value of the domestic holiday market to grow by about 7% this year, reaching close to £14bn and to outpace growth in overseas travel,” she said.
The overseas travel market is forecast to grow by 4.8% this year to £64.3bn, Mintel said.
Fears are rising that the oil crisis triggered by the conflict in the Middle East could lead to fuel shortages in Europe this summer.
This week, the head of the global energy body warned that Europe only has six weeks’ worth of jet fuel supplies before shortages will hit.
Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, said there would be flight cancellations if oil supplies were not restored within the coming weeks.
On Friday, the International Air Transport Association’s director general, Willie Walsh, said flights in Europe could be cancelled because of a lack of jet fuel starting from the end of May.
“Along with doing everything possible to secure alternative supply lines, it’s important that authorities have well-communicated and well-coordinated plans in place in case rationing becomes necessary, including for slot relief,” he added.
This month, Michael O’Leary, the chief executive of Ryanair, warned that Britain would be the most exposed to jet fuel shortages because it relies on Kuwait for about 25% of its supply.
Airlines around the world have already been forced to cancel some flights.
Last week, jet fuel averaged at $197.83 a barrel, according to the International Airport Transport Association, more than double the average last year.
Munk added that reports of delays at European border crossings, triggered by the EU’s new entry-exit system (EES), was also putting people off from booking overseas holidays this summer.
The airport industry has told the European Commission that the system, which requires people from the UK and other non-EU countries to submit biometric data before entering the bloc, was causing delays of up to three hours for passengers.
Last week, more than 100 passengers missed an easyJet flight from Milan to Manchester because of delays triggered by EES checks.
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