This is the online version of From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
Ahead of this evening’s State of the Union address, Peter Nicholas dives into the economic dilemma President Donald Trump is facing, while Steve Kornacki lays out how the midterm environment is shaping up.
Programming note: Stay tuned for a special edition of the newsletter later tonight, where we will recap and analyze the key moments from Trump’s speech.
NBC News and NBC News NOW will air special coverage of the address starting at 9 p.m. ET. Follow along with our live blog for real-time updates and reactions.
— Adam Wollner
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— Adam Wollner
The big question looming over Trump’s State of the Union
Analysis by Peter Nicholas
Tonight’s State of the Union offers President Donald Trump a vast TV audience and perhaps the best chance he’ll get before the midterm elections to show voters that, yes, he understands they feel squeezed by high prices.
The question is, will he seize the moment?
Ahead of the speech, Trump has sounded peeved that Democrats have gained ground because so many Americans believe life is unaffordable. His argument is that he inherited high inflation from the Biden administration and deserves credit for reinvigorating the economy.
“I’ve won affordability,” he said in Georgia last week.
Americans aren’t buying it. Polling shows the extent to which the public has soured on his stewardship of the economy — once a strong point. A new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey showed that only 41% of adults approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, compared with 57% who disapproved.
Trump is far more inclined to blame Joe Biden and argue that he’s already brought the U.S. economy to soaring heights than to concede he still has work to do on that front. His message often sounds as if he’s already fixed a problem that, in the eyes of most Americans, still persists.
A nation that was once “dead” is now the “hottest” in the world, Trump likes to say. If that’s the message tonight, voters might be unmoved.
“It’s the American people who decide whether these issues matter — not the politicians,” Newt Gingrich, a former Republican House speaker and a Trump ally, said in an interview.
What will we hear from Trump, then? White House advisers suggested ahead of the speech that Trump will acknowledge that times are tough for some Americans and that he has a plan to fix things.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters this morning that Trump will “lay out a very ambitious agenda, I think, for the working people of this country to make America more affordable and prosperous and safe, and make the American dream more attainable.”
The speech Trump may want to give tonight is that people’s hardships are behind them. But 90-plus minutes of Trumpian self-praise may not suit the national mood. The speech he may need to give for the Republican Party’s sake is that the hardships are real and need to be addressed — now.
Gingrich, who ran for president in 2012, said that Trump should say, “‘We have a plan that will flood the market with goods and services and bring down costs and will be dramatically less expensive than Biden’s.’ It’s not complicated.”
Trump’s speech comes amid a challenging midterm environment for the GOP
Analysis by Steve Kornacki
He’s only one year into his second term, but tonight could mark the final time that President Donald Trump delivers a State of the Union address to a Republican-controlled Congress.
The traditional indicators point to a very challenging climate for the GOP in this year’s midterm elections. In an average of recent reputable national polls, Trump’s job approval rating sits at 40%. That’s exactly where it was at this point in 2018, when his party suffered a midterm drubbing. And it’s roughly in line with where Joe Biden was in 2022, where Barack Obama was in 2014 and 2010, and where George W. Bush was in 2006. All of those presidents saw their parties lose control of at least one chamber of Congress in those midterms.
On what the public says are its top issues, Trump also fares poorly: In the poll average, 40% approve of his handling of the economy and 43% approve of how he’s handled immigration and the border. He’s also seen drops in support among key groups. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released this week shows 30% of Hispanic voters and 29% of voters under 30 approve of his job performance. In his 2024 victory over Kamala Harris, Trump performed surprisingly well with both of these voting blocs.
Democrats have already been showing momentum at the ballot box. In special House elections since Trump’s return to the White House, Democratic candidates have posted net improvements of between 13 and 23 points compared with the 2024 presidential election. And in last November’s gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats rolled up landslide victories.
Is there any solace in all of this for Trump and the GOP? Potentially some.
The Democratic success in special elections is probably mostly due to an imbalance in the motivation of each party’s base, with Democratic voters eager to use any and every opportunity to register their opposition to Trump. The imbalance matters in low-wattage special elections, but its effect will be dulled in November, when interest and turnout will be much higher.
The battlefield for the House is also getting smaller thanks to polarization and partisan gerrymandering. In the 2018 midterm of Trump’s first term, Republicans were defending a total of 48 seats from districts that had either voted against Trump in 2016 or that Trump had won by less than 7.5 points. This year, they only have 23 seats that fall into that category. Oddly enough, Republicans can take some inspiration from Biden and the Democrats here: In 2022, even though Biden had an approval rating on par with Trump’s today, Democrats lost only nine House seats.
But of course, even nine seats is more than the GOP can afford to lose in 2026. A net shift of just three is all the Democrats need this year to win control of the House — and to ensure that when Trump comes to the chamber for next year’s State of the Union, he will be greeted by a Democratic speaker.
What else to know ahead of tonight’s address:
- Trump’s guests will include Erika Kirk, the widow of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, and the parents of Sarah Beckstrom, the 20-year-old National Guard member who was shot and killed in Washington, D.C., last year. Members of the U.S. men’s hockey team are also expected to attend the speech after visiting the White House this afternoon.
- Over a dozen House Democrats have invited survivors of Jeffrey Epstein to be their guests.
- For the official Democratic response, Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger plans to focus on affordability, immigration and the “chaos” caused by the Trump administration.
📊Poll: How long will Trump’s speech last?
Tonight will mark Trump’s sixth State of the Union/address to a joint session of Congress. Courtesy of NBC News’ Monica Alba, here’s how long each of those speeches lasted:
2025: 1 hour, 40 minutes
2020: 1 hour, 18 minutes
2019: 1 hour, 22 minutes
2018: 1 hour, 20 minutes
2017: 1 hour
Trump said yesterday: “It’s going to be a long speech, because we have so much to talk about.”
With that in mind, how long do you think Trump will speak for this time? Vote in our reader poll:
🗞️ Today’s other top stories
- 💲Tariff talk: Trump’s reworked global tariffs began today at a rate of 10%, even though he said over the weekend that they would start at 15%. Read more →
- 🇺🇦 Ukraine update: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s public frustration is growing as Russia’s war on his country enters its fifth year. Read more →
- 🇮🇷 Iran update: Although weakened and facing a domestic crisis, Iran’s regime still has substantial firepower that could inflict damage on American interests and allies in the region, disrupt the global economy and trigger a protracted conflict in response to a U.S. military attack. Read more →
- 🛑 On second thought: Jeanine Pirro’s office has decided to stop pursuing the case against six Democratic lawmakers who urged service members in a video not to comply with unlawful orders. Read more →
- 🛣️ On the ground: More than a year after Trump flipped the traditionally Democratic Rio Grande Valley, his deportation agenda is running headlong into the region’s workforce. Read more →
That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Owen Auston-Babcock.
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