Mikel Arteta insists Arsenal will focus only on victory against Manchester City, despite the huge Premier League title pressure surrounding Sunday’s trip to Etihad Stadium. Arsenal sit six points clear of Pep Guardiola’s team, though City still hold a game in hand that could narrow the margin significantly.

The meeting in Manchester comes with just six league fixtures remaining for both clubs, adding extra weight to every decision. Arteta is clear that tactics will not be shaped around protecting the current lead, even though the game could re-shape the title picture before Arsenal next play.

According to the Opta supercomputer, Arsenal are heavy favourites for the Premier League title before kick-off. The data model currently gives Arsenal an 85.7% chance of finishing first, leaving Manchester City with a 14.3% probability of defending the championship for another season.

The projections swing sharply based on Sunday’s result. An Arsenal victory would raise their title chances to 98%, ending a 22-year wait to be champions of England. Opta still keeps Arsenal ahead even if City win, though their probability would fall to 69%, with a draw nudging Arsenal to 89%.

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The numbers lead to an obvious question for analysts and fans, as a stalemate would also suit Arsenal. Some observers wonder if Arteta might repeat last season’s conservative plan, when Arsenal secured a 0-0 draw at Etihad Stadium during the 2023-24 run-in but eventually lost the title race.

Arteta dismissed any thought of settling for a point when speaking to reporters. Asked if a draw would be acceptable, Arteta answered: “We’re not going to spend one second talking about that. We prepare every game to win, that’s where we are and we’re going to continue to do the same.”

The Arsenal manager also recognised the importance of the contest within a demanding schedule. Arteta said: “I know there are six games to go. Obviously, it’s a really important one for both teams and it will incline the balance a little bit. Winning a game in the Premier League is so tough for everybody, so after this one, there will still be difficult matches for all of us, and we’ll have to wait and continue whatever happens.”

Arsenal vs Manchester City Premier League title context

Arsenal arrive from a tense Champions League quarter-final against Sporting CP on Wednesday. A 0-0 draw in the second leg was enough to secure progress, with Arsenal advancing 1-0 on aggregate. The performance again drew outside criticism of Arsenal’s attacking style under Arteta in high-pressure fixtures.

Before that tie, Arteta described the squad’s mood by saying the players were “on fire” despite those external judgements. Reports on Friday added a twist, claiming that Arteta built on that message by lighting an actual fire during a training session, as part of the motivational build-up for the squad.

Arteta did not directly deny using fire as a symbolic tool when asked about the story. Arteta said: “Every game, we use different themes to try to prepare in the best possible way and that depends on what we do. The best ones are the players’ initiatives. Those are the ones I love the most.”

Arsenal vs Manchester City Premier League title selection issues

Team selection now becomes a major concern for Arteta, particularly in wide areas. Bukayo Saka is ruled out with a lower leg problem, removing one of Arsenal’s most consistent attacking threats for a match that could decide momentum at the top of the Premier League table.

There is also uncertainty over Noni Madueke, who provides backup on the right flank. Arteta explained the situation, saying: “Bukayo is out, that’s for sure. The rest… let’s see. We have another training session. [Madueke] didn’t look that bad after the game, and he was quite positive. He’s a player who pushes through pain, so I’m hopeful that he can be available, but we have to wait and see if he’s able to train [on Saturday].”

With probabilities, past experience and injuries all in play, Arsenal’s visit to Manchester City carries heavy significance for the title race. Arteta remains fixed on a winning approach, while both clubs still face difficult league fixtures after Sunday, ensuring the outcome at Etihad Stadium shapes but does not settle the season.