Arsenal move into their final home league match knowing victory against Burnley would keep the Premier League title within reach and extend a long unbeaten run in such fixtures. With two games remaining, Arsenal stay top and control their destiny, while Burnley arrive already relegated but looking to disrupt the race.

Mikel Arteta has highlighted how this campaign shows Arsenal’s growth in dealing with pressure at the top end of the table. The team also prepares for a Champions League final on May 30, increasing the physical and mental load as the season reaches its climax.

If Arsenal defeat Burnley and then Crystal Palace, the club will secure a first Premier League crown since the 2003-04 season. A win against Burnley alone could also be enough, but only if Manchester City lose against Bournemouth on Tuesday, so every point now carries extra significance.

Arteta reflected on how Arsenal have handled different situations over recent years. “The last few years have been different. We think we’ve been in both positions [leading or chasing inthe title race],” Arteta said. “It’s what it is. I think the fact that we’ve been at the top for a long time shows the level of consistency and how well the team has done. We’re still there in this league. It’s where we are now. More than ever, obviously, we want to finish in that position.”

Arsenal’s historical record in final home league fixtures underlines the challenge Burnley face. Arsenal have lost only once in their last 28 such matches, winning 23 and drawing four. Since a 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa in the 2010-11 season, Arsenal are unbeaten in 14 final home league games, taking 12 wins and two draws.

Burnley arrive at Emirates Stadium on a poor run, with relegation already confirmed and only one win in their last 27 league matches. That stretch includes eight draws and 18 defeats, while the 11 points gained in that sequence are just one more than they collected from their first nine league games this season.

The head-to-head record between the sides also leans strongly towards Arsenal. Across 19 Premier League meetings, Arsenal have suffered only one defeat, with 14 wins and four draws, losing 1-0 at home in December 2020. Burnley have never scored more than once in any of those league encounters, managing nine goals in total.

Arsenal vs Burnley Premier League team mentality and approach

Arsenal must handle competing priorities, with the league run-in overlapping with European commitments, yet Arteta maintains faith in the squad’s mentality. The long period spent at the top of the table has strengthened belief that this group can hold their nerve and finish the domestic season as champions, especially with home form so strong.

Burnley’s interim manager Mike Jackson wants the squad to treat the trip as a major stage despite relegation. “From our point of view, you’ve got to look at it as an opportunity as well,” Jackson said. “One, to be involved in a game like that. Two, to be really excited about that. And it’s a platform to then go and perform. We can’t influence everything that’s going on around it, all the noise. What we can do is we can make sure, like we did against Villa last week, that we’re still taking the competition really seriously, and that’s what we’ll do.”

Arsenal vs Burnley Premier League players to watch

Viktor Gyokeres has been especially effective at Emirates Stadium during this Premier League campaign. Nine of Gyokeres’ 14 league goals have come in home matches, placing Gyokeres alongside notable first-season scorers for Arsenal such as Thierry Henry in 1999-00, Olivier Giroud in 2012-13 and Alexandre Lacazette in 2017-18.

Zian Flemming carries Burnley’s main attacking threat. Flemming is the first Burnley player to reach double figures in a Premier League season since Chris Wood scored 12 in the 2020-21 campaign. Eight of Flemming’s goals have arrived away from home, a figure behind only Erling Haaland with 11 and Igor Thiago with nine this season.

Arsenal vs Burnley Premier League statistical outlook and odds

Arsenal’s broader record against relegated opponents adds further context. Arsenal have won all 10 Premier League fixtures this season against teams that were already relegated at the time of the match, giving Arsenal the best perfect record in such games in the league’s history.

The home side also boast a long unbeaten streak against promoted clubs on their own ground. Arsenal have gone 44 top-flight home matches without defeat against promoted teams, winning 39 and drawing five since a 1-0 loss to Newcastle in November 2010. The last 15 of those have all been wins, with a combined scoreline of 43-9.

Burnley’s record in final away league games underlines the scale of the task. Across nine Premier League campaigns, Burnley have won their last away fixture of the season only twice. The recent 2-2 draw against Aston Villa ended a five-match losing sequence but did not change their overall league position.

OPTA’s model gives Arsenal a dominant chance of success, with a small probability of a Burnley surprise. The probabilities for the three possible results are shown below.

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With Arsenal chasing a first league title in more than two decades and Burnley already consigned to relegation, the statistical signs, current form and historical records all point towards a home victory. Yet Burnley’s desire to restore pride, and the pressure of the title race, ensure the match still carries competitive edge.