It wasn’t supposed to be this way.

In conservative Florida, Alex Vindman – a retired army intelligence officer who blew this whistle on Donald Trump in his first term – appeared set to carry the Democratic establishment banner as the party’s staged a long-shot bid to topple a Republican US senator.

Florida’s Democratic voters had other ideas.

Democratic socialist Angie Nixon emerged a surprise victor in the US Senate primary on Tuesday, after a campaign in which she was outfunded and outspent by Vindman at a ratio of more than 10 to 1.

Her triumph sent shock waves through the Democratic party machine, as it prepares to mount a challenge to the incumbent Republican senator, Ashley Moody, in November’s US midterm elections.

Nixon, a tenacious leftwing fighter and former union organizer who has represented Jacksonville in the Florida house since 2020, raised $975,000 in her campaign, compared with Vindman’s $16.3m, but garnered more than 750,000 votes to her opponent’s 550,000 – an overwhelming victory that left his campaign scratching its head as to where it all went wrong.

“The reason that we all collectively thought that he was the favorite was because he had that national name recognition, and especially because he was able to raise so much money,” said Aubrey Jewett, professor of political science at the University of Central Florida.

She noted, however, that polling largely focused on how Nixon and Vindman would respectively fare against Moody in a general election, rather than whether Democratic voters preferred Nixon or Vindman as their party’s candidate.

“Is Florida ready for a democratic socialist candidate in a general election? I still don’t know the answer,” added Jewett. “But what this primary showed was that, within the Democratic party base, there is a strong majority of progressive social Democrats in Florida – just like there apparently is across the country.”

Nixon’s victory followed a series of primary wins for progressive candidates this summer, including in Philadelphia, Colorado, Michigan and New York City. She only recently joined the Democratic Socialists of America, and was not endorsed by them. She is also set to face trial next month – charged with trespassing and resisting an officer without violence – after a sit-in protest at the office of the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, in May.

It remains to be seen how attractive Nixon will be to Florida’s wider electorate in November. As Jewett notes, Florida is heavily populated by Hispanic communities, and Moody is certain to try to affix the “socialist” label to Nixon’s campaign that has long proven toxic at the ballot box for such voter groups.

The conservative commentator Noah Rothman, writing in National Review on Wednesday, went one step further, characterizing Nixon as “communist-curious”.

“Even if the race for Senate in Florida is now a foregone conclusion, this race will still feature prominently in the national conversation,” he argued. “Why? Because it demonstrates that Republicans are right when they warn that the socialist phenomenon is coming to a town near you.”

Pollsters already appear to have concluded that Nixon’s primary victory has limited Democrats’ chances of taking the seat. Within hours of her fiery victory speech on Tuesday night, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the respected analytical wing of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, moved the Florida Senate race from “likely Republican” to “safe Republican”.

It also leaves Democratic leaders in the US Senate, who publicly warmly welcomed Nixon’s win, in something of a quandary. While their path to reclaiming control of the upper chamber from Republicans was never predicated on success in Florida, Vindman, as a moderate, was considered to have at least an outside shot of an upset. Accordingly, the party’s hierarchy was preparing to send dollars and resources to bolster his campaign.

Now, with Nixon on the ticket, analysts expect a rethink. “The Democratic establishment was more comfortable with Vindman,” Jewett said. “He had a demonstrated track record of being able to raise money, and Nixon does not.”

Florida has about 1.5 million more registered Republican voters than Democrats, she noted. “Nixon is really going to have her work cut out for her to show that she can raise money, or if she can’t, to show that somehow they can recreate the success of the grassroots campaign that brought her victory here,” Jewett added.

Her supporters are certain that will be possible. Among a flood of tributes to her on Tuesday night and through Wednesday were calls for unity, including from Vindman himself, who said: “I will be standing by her side in the fight against Ashley Moody. I hope you’ll join me.”

Some of the messages were also critical of Vindman, and those in Democratic circles who bet on the wrong horse.

“Angie Nixon’s win sent shock waves through the Democratic establishment who got too comfortable behind corporate donors and moderate candidates,” said Hayley Margolis, an organizer with Jewish Voice for Peace South Florida. “Her votes were hard earned through heartfelt grassroots conversations with the working class across the state of Florida.”

Nixon, who was reprimanded for using a bullhorn on the Florida house floor earlier this year, does not care for internal party wrangling. And she made one thing clear: she is unlikely to change tack as she presents herself to the wider statewide electorate before November.

“They look at this movement and they call us extreme, they call us radical, but I think people see through that. I won’t let them define me and I know you will always know where I stand,” she told supporters on Tuesday night.

“If believing a mom shouldn’t have to work three jobs to keep a roof over her head is extreme, call me extreme. Ashley Moody can call me whatever she wants, but in November she’ll be calling me senator.”