-myKhel Team

AC Milan and Inter meet in the Derby della Madonnina on Sunday with the Scudetto picture in sharp focus, as Inter hold a 10-point advantage and can stretch that to 13, while Milan know victory would at least keep slim title hopes alive and move the Rossoneri closer to their stated priority of securing a Champions League place for next season.

Inter enter the clash as strong favourites for the Scudetto, with the Opta supercomputer rating their title chances at 96.8%, and a win at San Siro would tighten control on first place, while Milan, currently on 57 points, are aware that tally is not sufficient for Champions League qualification and must use the derby to close the gap.

Massimiliano Allegri stays cautious about overtaking Inter, yet refuses to completely abandon the idea of a title fight, stressing Milan’s main target is a top-four finish, but acknowledging that the derby could influence both objectives. Asked whether a win would reopen the race, Allegri replied: “You never know what happens in football. In the meantime, we’ll just play tomorrow.”

Allegri also underlined how the outcome will shape the standings, while repeating Milan’s Champions League goal. Allegri said: “I don’t know if we’ll reopen the race for the Scudetto, but we’re five wins away from the Champions League, so if we win tomorrow, we’ll be missing one less. After the game, we’ll see if we’re left at -10, at -7 or at -13 [points behind Inter]. Regardless of tomorrow’s result, we know that 57 points isn’t enough to achieve our goal, which is to return to playing in the Champions League.”

Milan arrive from a late 2-0 victory over Cremonese, which ended a brief downturn that included one draw and one defeat, results that had seen Allegri’s side slip further behind Inter, while Inter’s domestic league form remains very strong with eight straight Serie A wins, although Cristian Chivu’s team drew 0-0 against Como in the first leg of the Coppa Italia semi-final.

Chivu expects a reaction in Serie A and wants Inter to respect the derby while keeping their style. Chivu said: “We’ve got to keep the good run going, trying to be competitive and seeking those variations that can allow us to express ourselves even better on the pitch. We cannot change our identity, the one we have had since the start. Since the start of this year, we’ve improved and have a different approach to games, because we don’t underestimate or overestimate anyone. What matters is what we want to do, how we control the game, and I think that the ambitions we built for ourselves deservedly this season allow us to be without pressure, aware we are facing a strong opponent.”

AC Milan vs Inter key players to watch

Christian Pulisic is a central figure for Milan, having scored the only goal in the reverse league fixture on 23 November, and could become the first Milan player since Kaka in the 2003-04 season to score in both Serie A derbies against Inter in a single campaign, although Pulisic has not found the net in the league since late December, a run of 10 appearances.

For Inter, Federico Dimarco’s influence in 2026 has been notable, with the wing-back involved in 12 goals from 10 Serie A matches this calendar year, scoring four and assisting eight, and Dimarco is chasing a club milestone, as another goal or assist would place Dimarco among a select group of Inter players who have contributed to a goal in seven straight Serie A games on record since 2004-05, alongside Julio Cruz, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez.

AC Milan vs Inter historical trends and Opta prediction

Recent derby history offers Milan some encouragement, as the Rossoneri are unbeaten in the last six meetings across all competitions, with four wins and two draws, and won 1-0 in the first league derby this season, giving Allegri the chance to oversee a Serie A double over Inter for the first time since the 2010-11 campaign, although Milan’s home record against Inter has been less positive.

Milan have managed just one victory in the last 11 home derbies in all competitions, a 3-2 success on 3 September 2022, with five draws and five defeats during that period, and the two most recent clashes at Milan’s designated home both ended level, while the Derby della Madonnina has only produced three straight draws at Milan’s home ground on two previous occasions in history, adding an extra statistical note before this fixture.

Inter’s impressive away results strengthen their status as favourites, with nine consecutive away wins in Serie A, and the Nerazzurri can achieve 10 league away victories in a row for only the second time, after a sequence of 11 between October 2006 and March 2007, whereas Milan have taken just one point from their last two home league matches, drawing with Como and losing to Parma, and could suffer back-to-back home defeats in Serie A for the first time since the period between October and November 2023.

The Opta model leans towards an Inter victory based on form and away strength, yet Milan’s unbeaten run in recent derbies, the chance for Pulisic to match a Kaka record and Dimarco’s attacking numbers all add further layers to a fixture that still holds meaning for the Scudetto race and, crucially for Allegri’s side, the push for Champions League qualification.

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