Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest offers key points for both clubs on Friday, with European hopes and safety targets in focus. Sunderland chase Brighton in sixth, while Forest look to stay clear of danger. Regis Le Bris again leans on Omar Alderete’s influence, as Vitor Pereira plans without injured defenders and Callum Hudson-Odoi at the Stadium of Light.
Le Bris has underlined how Alderete shapes Sunderland’s defensive structure and mentality this season. Alderete leads the team with 27 blocks and 200 clearances, and has won 54.2% of duels, succeeding in 128 of 236 contests. Sunderland have 11 wins, eight draws and 10 defeats from 29 league games when Alderete features, but just one win in four when Alderete is missing.
Asked about Alderete’s importance, Le Bris did not hide admiration. “He’s been really good,” said Le Bris about Alderete. “He’s a bit different. His character, the way he trains every day, his connection with his teammates. He is a bit older and with a different culture. His job as a centre-back is probably a bit different then a midfielder, a striker or winger but he’s been really important to us and the way we want to play. When the opponent wants to go direct, he is really good at managing duels and long balls inside the box. He has this ability to defend and doesn’t need to force it. He likes defending the box. His left foot is really good too. Sometimes, he can be without a good level of energy to give the right tempo but it’s because he is so skilled so it’s easy for him. I think he has improved this part during the season.”
Le Bris views Alderete as crucial when rivals choose direct play and early deliveries. The centre-back’s left foot also aids Sunderland’s build-up from deep positions. Sunderland’s overall defensive record fits the wider trend of their league games, with only Crystal Palace matches featuring fewer total Premier League goals this season.
Forest travel after a 4-1 victory over Burnley that boosted survival hopes but brought setbacks. Centre-back Murillo left that match with a muscle issue and will not face Sunderland. Forest boss Vitor Pereira confirmed uncertainty over Murillo’s return schedule, while Hudson-Odoi remains out for the rest of the campaign following surgery.
Pereira outlined Murillo’s situation in simple terms. “He is out. We will see. It is a muscle injury,” said Pereira. “I’m not a doctor, I cannot predict [the duration of his injury], but he will be out. I think it will be more than one game.” On Hudson-Odoi, Pereira added: “He is OK after the surgery. He is an important player for us, but the most important thing is for him to fully recover and come back at the level he used to have.”
Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest form guide and key trends
Forest’s win at Burnley means Pereira’s side now chase back-to-back Premier League victories for the first time since November, when Forest beat Leeds United and Liverpool. Forest have taken two wins and one draw from their last three league games, matching the win total from their previous 14 fixtures, which produced five draws and seven defeats.
Pereira’s record in late-season months is also striking. Combining spells with Wolves and Forest, Pereira has eight wins, four draws and one defeat from 13 Premier League matches in March and April, an average of 2.15 points per game. Across all other months, Pereira has four wins, four draws and 18 defeats from 26 matches, averaging 0.62 points per game.
History leans slightly towards Sunderland in this fixture, despite Forest’s recent upturn. Forest have lost five of the last six league games against Sunderland, winning only once in that run, a 1-0 success at the Stadium of Light in September 2017. This will be the first Premier League meeting on Wearside since a 1-1 draw in March 1997.
Sunderland’s schedule adds another layer, as the club have never won a Premier League match on a Friday. Sunderland’s record across three Friday games stands at two draws and one defeat. Victory here would make Sunderland the 21st club to record league wins on all seven days in the competition’s history.
Goal numbers around Sunderland have stayed relatively modest this season. Only Crystal Palace matches, with 71, have produced fewer Premier League goals than Sunderland’s 76. The 4-3 defeat to Aston Villa accounted for nine percent of all goals scored in Sunderland league matches in the 2025-26 campaign.
Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest players to watch
In attack, Sunderland’s focus turns to teenager Chris Rigg, who continues to build a growing profile. Rigg scored in the 4-3 defeat to Aston Villa at 18 years and 305 days, making Rigg the club’s third-youngest Premier League scorer, behind Michael Bridges at 18 years and 117 days and Connor Wickham at 18 years and 212 days.
Rigg’s involvement also stands out in Sunderland’s Premier League history for teenagers. Only Jordan Henderson, with 23, Julio Arca, with 15, and Sean Thornton, with 11, have more league starts as teenagers for Sunderland than Rigg, who already has 10 starts. Rigg therefore represents a notable part of Le Bris’ long-term planning.
Forest’s main attacking form belongs to Morgan Gibbs-White after Gibbs-White struck a hat-trick against Burnley. Gibbs-White now has six goals in the last six Premier League games, equalling the total from Gibbs-White’s previous 28 appearances combined, underlining the current finishing run under Pereira.
Under Pereira’s management specifically, Gibbs-White averages a goal every 101 minutes in the Premier League. That is the best scoring rate for any Forest player with at least two goals under a single manager in the competition. Pereira therefore relies heavily on Gibbs-White’s output in the absence of Hudson-Odoi.
Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest prediction and Opta data
The statistical outlook suggests a tight contest, and the overall MATCH PREDICTION is listed as DRAW. Sunderland’s push towards Brighton in sixth contrasts with Forest’s desire to confirm safety. Statistical projections give Sunderland a slight edge, although Forest’s recent momentum and Gibbs-White’s scoring streak offer a clear counterbalance.
OPTA’s win probability model reflects that balance between the sides heading into Friday’s match. Sunderland are given a 39.2% chance of victory, Nottingham Forest are rated at 34.2%, and the draw probability stands at 26.6%. Those figures highlight a contest that appears largely even, with small margins likely to decide matters.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 39.2% |
| Draw | 26.6% |
| Nottingham Forest win | 34.2% |
The meeting between Sunderland and Nottingham Forest therefore carries clear stakes at both ends of the table. Sunderland depend on Alderete’s defending and Rigg’s growing influence, while Forest look to manage injuries and continue Gibbs-White’s strong run. With recent form, long-term records and Friday history mixed together, both sides have reasons for optimism and concern.
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