The Asian Football Confederation (AFC) is planning a major overhaul of how its national teams qualify for the FIFA World Cup and AFC Asian Cup, with a new biennial Nations League proposed to begin in 2030.

Under the draft plans, seen by ESPN, Asia’s national teams would be divided into three tiers, with the competition becoming closely linked to World Cup and Asian Cup qualification.

The proposed Nations League would also introduce promotion and relegation between the tiers, while replacing the current regional or zonal approach with a single continental structure.

Here is how the proposed system would work and what it could mean for Asian football.

What is the AFC Nations League?

The AFC Nations League would be a biennial competition involving the confederation’s national teams.

The proposed structure consists of three tiers:

There would be no regional or zonal split. Instead, teams would be divided into pots before the draw, with an algorithm used to create a balanced fixture schedule.

The AFC has cited differences in the number of nations across existing regions and disparities in competitive levels as reasons for moving away from the zonal model.

The first official edition is proposed for 2030, while a pilot competition would be staged in 2028-29 to help establish the initial tiers.

How would the Nations League affect World Cup qualification?

The biggest change would come during editions of the Nations League aligned with the World Cup.

The first World Cup-linked edition is proposed for 2032-33.

Under the draft system, the 18 nations in Tier 1 would play 12 matches – six at home and six away.

The top six teams would automatically qualify for the FIFA World Cup.

The teams finishing seventh through 10th would then enter a round-robin playoff for the remaining two direct qualification places.

The top two sides from that playoff would qualify for the World Cup, while the third-placed team would advance to an intercontinental playoff.

Proposed World Cup qualification pathway

This would represent a significant change from the qualification system used for the 2026 World Cup.

How does that compare with the 2026 World Cup qualifiers?

For the 2026 World Cup, the 18 Asian teams that reached the third round were divided into three groups of six.

The top two teams from each group qualified directly for the World Cup, while the next-best teams progressed to another playoff phase.

The proposed Nations League would instead place all 18 teams into one top tier and determine qualification through a single league structure.

That means teams would no longer be competing only within one of three separate groups during the main stage.

How would Asian Cup qualification work?

The Nations League would also be used for AFC Asian Cup qualification.

The Asian Cup-linked edition would feature six home and away fixtures – three at home and three away – under the current proposal.

In these editions, every Tier 1 team would qualify for the Asian Cup, along with the six highest-ranked teams from Tier 2.

That would mean 24 teams qualifying directly through the two highest tiers.

The proposal also includes a shift in the Asian Cup calendar, with the tournament moving from 2031 to 2032.

Proposed Asian Cup qualification system

What happens to the Nations League itself?

The competition would not simply function as a qualification tournament.

The top eight teams in Tier 1 would progress to a knockout stage to determine the overall Nations League champion.

The quarter-finals would be played over two legs, home and away, before the semi-finals and final are staged at a central venue.

This would give the competition a standalone sporting objective alongside its role in determining World Cup and Asian Cup qualification.

Will there be promotion and relegation?

Yes.

Promotion and relegation would be built into the Nations League, with movement between the three tiers taking place after every biennial edition.

The top two teams in a tier would earn automatic promotion, while the bottom two would face automatic relegation.

There would also be additional promotion and relegation playoffs involving teams close to the top and bottom of the respective tiers.

The next four worst-performing teams in the higher tier would face the next four best teams from the lower tier in playoff contests to determine further movement between divisions.

This would give teams an incentive to compete for position even when they are not directly involved in World Cup or Asian Cup qualification.

Why is the AFC moving away from regional groups?

The proposed system would eliminate regional or zonal divisions.

The AFC says the existing structure presents challenges because the number of countries varies between regions and the quality of opposition can differ significantly.

Under the new model, teams would instead be placed into pots for the draw, with fixtures generated to produce a more balanced schedule.

The aim is to give national teams more consistent exposure to opponents of different levels across the continent.

What happens to the smaller Asian nations?

The three-tier structure would provide a clearer pathway between different levels of international football.

Teams in the lower tiers could earn promotion by performing well, while stronger teams could drop down if they struggle.

The AFC is also proposing to use the 2028-29 pilot to establish the initial composition of the tiers.

Importantly, the AFC plans to use results from the preliminary joint qualifiers rather than FIFA rankings to determine the initial divisions. This is intended to provide what the proposal describes as more equitable access to the first official Nations League.

Why is there a pilot tournament in 2028-29?

The AFC does not plan to move directly into the new system.

A pilot Nations League would be staged across 2028-29 to test the proposed format and help determine the composition of the tiers ahead of the first official edition in 2030.

The pilot would retain the existing World Cup qualification structure of three groups of six in the top tier.

The top two teams in each group would qualify for the 2030 World Cup.

However, the next four best-performing teams would then enter a playoff based on the model proposed for the future Nations League, with two earning World Cup qualification and the third progressing to an intercontinental playoff.

Promotion, relegation and associated playoffs would also be staged during the pilot.

Why not create a separate AFC Nations League?

The AFC considered a standalone competition but rejected that option under the current proposal.

The main concerns were the additional costs involved and the limited number of available international matchdays.

By linking the Nations League directly to World Cup and Asian Cup qualification, the AFC can use existing international windows while giving the competition a competitive purpose beyond qualification alone.

When could the AFC Nations League begin?

The AFC is proposing to introduce the official Nations League in 2030.

The first Asian Cup-linked edition would take place in 2030, while the first World Cup-linked edition would follow in 2032-33.

A pilot competition in 2028-29 would serve as the transition into the new system.

The proposal still has to go through the AFC’s formal process, so the final structure could change before implementation.

What would change for Asian football?

If approved in its current form, the AFC Nations League would fundamentally alter the international calendar in Asia.

Instead of separate qualification groups and regional structures, national teams would compete in a three-tier continental league with promotion, relegation and knockout stages built into the system.

Most importantly, the competition would become directly tied to qualification for the two biggest men’s national-team tournaments in Asia: the FIFA World Cup and AFC Asian Cup.

For the strongest teams, it would offer a more consistent high-level schedule and a clearer route to the World Cup. For emerging nations, promotion would provide a pathway to regularly face stronger opposition.

The proposal therefore represents more than the introduction of another tournament – it would reshape the way Asian national teams compete for places at the continent’s biggest competitions.