EXPLAINER

A race that once received little attention has morphed into a proxy fight for the soul of the Democratic Party.

Voters in a swath of the US state of California’s Bay Area are heading to the polls Tuesday to determine which Democrat will replace former Representative Eric Swalwell to represent the state’s 14th Congressional District.

State Senator Aisha Wahab and local transit official Melissa Hernandez are facing off in a race that has become increasingly expensive and combative.

Wahab and Hernandez both advanced to Tuesday’s special election after they garnered roughly 38 and 17 percent support, respectively, during a nonpartisan primary held in June. Under California’s unique “jungle primary” system, the two candidates with the most votes advance if neither receives more than 50 percent of the vote.

Swalwell, who spent more than a decade in Congress before mounting a run for California governor earlier this year, resigned in April following multiple allegations of sexual assault, which he has denied.

When do the polls open and close?

Polls are open for voters from 7am to 8pm local time  (14:00 Tuesday – 02:00 Wednesday GMT).

Why has this become a tense race?

Once considered the inevitable successor, Wahab has contended against a flood of outside money. Super PACs, including some affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), have spent millions of dollars on advertisements to sink Wahab’s candidacy and boost Hernandez in the final weeks of the race. One such AIPAC-affiliated group, the United Democracy Project, spent $1.2m on the race in August in support of Hernandez and in opposition to Wahab, according to Federal Election Commission records. Another group spent $1.7m on the race.

Collectively, outside groups have spent about $4.1m on the race since mid-July. About $3.7m was spent to benefit Hernandez’s campaign, compared with just shy of $400,000 to benefit Wahab’s.

Wahab, an Afghan American who is the first Muslim woman elected to California’s state Senate, has called out Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza and pushed legislation condemning alleged human rights abuses against Palestinians and captives held by Hamas.

Hernandez’s campaign is attacking Wahab for her legislative record on criminal penalties.

Wahab last week said she plans to file a complaint with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) over claims of “unprecedented” election interference on social media by outside groups like AIPAC.

“What we are seeing is a surge of suspicious accounts, bot-like activity, and very much coordinated to say the same vile, misleading narratives,” Wahab said at a news conference.

Semafor reported that a supporter of Hernandez’s campaign has filed a separate FEC complaint against Wahab, alleging the lawmaker received an “illegal and unreported in-kind contribution” from a local Democratic Party. Wahab, who has received the California Democratic Party’s endorsement, told the outlet the complaint was “deliberately misrepresenting” the party’s support for her.

Has redistricting affected the race?

The boundaries of the 14th Congressional District were redrawn as part of a new congressional map approved by voters in a 2025 statewide ballot measure known as Proposition 50. The map goes into effect for the full-term seat in January, while the winner of the special election will serve under the current boundaries for the remainder of the year.

Proposition 50 was placed on the ballot in response to mid-decade redistricting efforts led by US President Donald Trump in several Republican-controlled states. While the plan created a congressional map more favourable to Democrats, no dramatic changes were made to the 14th District.

What implications could this election have on November’s midterms?

AIPAC’s spending in the race also indicates the group, despite a mixed record of success in this year’s primaries, intends to spend big in the lead-up to November’s pivotal midterms.

The candidate who wins will serve out the remainder of Swalwell’s term, which ends in January. Wahab and Hernandez will also face off again in November for the congressional seat’s full two-year term.