Casemiro states that Brazil should not be considered leading favourites for the 2026 World Cup, despite a heavy win over Panama and a strong recent run. The midfielder believes several rival nations are currently better prepared and more settled ahead of the tournament in North America.

Analytical data supports Casemiro’s caution. The Opta supercomputer lists Brazil only sixth among World Cup favourites, assigning a 6.6% chance of lifting the trophy. Spain, France, England, Argentina and Portugal are all rated as more likely champions based on current performance trends.

Brazil still carry major historical weight at World Cup level. The Selecao have claimed the trophy five times, more than any other nation. Their win rate in World Cup matches stands at 67%, with 76 victories from 114 games. Their most recent title came in 2002.

Since that success, Brazil have endured a long wait. The team have played five straight World Cup tournaments without winning. That run matches their longest sequence without the trophy, previously recorded from 1930 to 1954 and again from 1974 to 1990.

Brazil begin their 2026 World Cup campaign in Group C, where they face Morocco on 13 June. The group also includes Haiti and Scotland, giving Brazil varied opposition in style and strength as the Selecao look to convert rich history into another deep tournament run.

The build-up under Carlo Ancelotti continued with a 6-2 victory against Panama at the Maracana. Casemiro wore the armband in Marquinhos’ absence and both scored and assisted. Vinicius Junior, Lucas Paqueta and Igor Thiago also registered a goal and an assist, while Rayan and Danilo scored once each.

That result adds to Brazil’s mixed record since Ancelotti took charge in May 2025. Across 11 matches, Brazil have collected six wins, two draws and three defeats. Casemiro feels that limited time with Ancelotti is a factor when measuring Brazil against more settled national teams.

“It’s difficult to talk about favourites [for the World Cup],” said Casemiro.

“We will be strong, but there are other teams a step ahead, that already have a consolidated project. Ancelotti has recently completed a year, or rather, 40 days on the job. There are other national teams that are further along in this process. We will arrive strong, because the ambition and childhood dreams are still in the air.”

Casemiro’s words underline a realistic view inside the Brazil camp. Brazil still approach the World Cup with tradition, individual quality and optimism, yet also with awareness that other squads appear more stable. That balance of belief and caution will shape their challenge in Group C and beyond.