Rep. Eric Swalwell’s exit from the race for governor of California following sexual misconduct allegations has scrambled what was already a crowded and unsettled contest in the country’s biggest Democratic-led state.
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Swalwell, who announced Monday night that he was resigning from Congress, was one of the top-polling Democrats, alongside former Rep. Katie Porter and billionaire activist Tom Steyer, in a race that has lacked a clear front-runner. Now that Swalwell has dropped out — and with ballots already printed and going out in the mail for early voting in just over three weeks — Democrats are aggressively jockeying to consolidate support ahead of a rapidly approaching top-two, all-party primary.
“The Swalwell news upends a race that was already upended. Porter and Steyer seemingly stand the most to gain, but there are a lot of undecided,” said Ted Lempert, a former Democratic assemblyman in California who teaches political science at the University of California, Berkeley.
Swalwell apologized for “mistakes in judgment” he made in the past while saying he would fight the “false allegations” against him.
The most robust activity in the race in the last 72 hours has come from San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan. Despite his not having reached double digits in any public polling, his campaign and an outside group supporting him are launching major ad campaigns this week to continue to introduce him to voters statewide. As the mayor of Silicon Valley’s home base, Mahan has quickly attracted support from wealthy tech leaders since a late campaign launch at the end of January.
At the same time, Steyer picked up the support of a trio of former Swalwell endorsers over the weekend and continues to pour millions of dollars of his own cash into ads.
And Porter’s campaign is highlighting that it has remained competitive despite low ad spending. The campaign circulated a memo over the weekend that included internal polling from late February showing nearly half of Swalwell supporters naming Porter as their second choice — and just 14% saying Steyer was theirs.
The reset race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom still remains packed. Even without Swalwell, seven prominent Democrats and two prominent Republicans are competing for a pair of general election slots. And the field seems unlikely to narrow further ahead of a deadline of Wednesday the state’s Democratic Party chairman set for candidates with no viable paths to victory to drop out. Some Democrats have feared that their party could be squeezed out of the general election since the two top vote-getters in the June 2 primary regardless of party will advance.
The latest polling in the race — which was conducted before Swalwell suspended his campaign — has continued to show that of the Democratic candidates running, only Swalwell, Steyer and Porter had reached double digits. The polling has also found Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco among the candidates splitting the most support in a state that has not elected a GOP governor in 20 years.
The Democratic field also includes former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former State Controller Betty Yee.
Democrats in California and around the country were still reeling Monday following Swalwell’s weekend exit — because of the nature of the sexual assault and sexual misconduct allegations against him, as well as the impact they are having on the race.
A Democratic source with ties to California said the state’s congressional delegation is “shocked” by what has happened over the past few days. The source added that it remains unclear where supporters of Swalwell go next.
“Maybe Steyer, who seems to be capitalizing the most, but it’s too early to tell for sure,” the source said.
Mahan’s campaign and allies see a fresh opening to gain traction. A Mahan-supporting PAC called California Back to Basics has raised more than $10 million since Friday, said the group’s spokesperson, Matthew Rodriguez, and it was launching a $14 million ad campaign across broadcast and cable TV and digital starting Monday. The ads will mostly target the Los Angeles, Sacramento and San Diego areas, Rodriguez said.
The Mahan campaign will also launch ads in the next week “with some big money behind them,” a person familiar with the campaign’s strategy said.
“We haven’t even started spending money yet. So as far as I’m concerned, this race is wide open. We’re just getting started,” Mahan said in an interview over the weekend. “The unique challenge I face in the race is just introducing myself to voters — but that’s also an opportunity.”
Mahan also took a veiled shot at both Porter and Steyer, claiming he will benefit from being a relatively fresh face.
“My two main Democratic opponents are household names. One’s run for president. One’s run for Senate,” he said, referring respectively to Steyer and to Porter.
He also suggested that the staggering sum Steyer has so far spent on his campaign has not moved the needle for him.
“Over $100 million just in the last few months, in Steyer’s case, spent, and still struggling to break 15% — so I think voters are looking for something else,” Mahan added.
Campaign spokesperson Tasha Dean went even further, saying in an interview that “Matt is now the only leading candidate without real baggage in this race — he’s the only candidate with a real record of accomplishments who has never abused his staff or invested in ICE detention centers.”
The remark refers to a video that surfaced last year of Porter yelling at a staffer and to Steyer’s having invested in private prisons through a hedge fund.
Porter apologized after the clip surfaced last year, saying at the time that she had “sought to be more intentional in showing gratitude to my staff for their important work.” Steyer, who repeatedly noted that the fund he invested in sold its holdings in the private prison space and that he exited the fund itself in 2012, also apologized at a town hall last month, saying, “It was a mistake.” (Steyer has also run ads responding specifically to those attacks.)
Meanwhile, the Porter campaign memo over the weekend also highlighted that she was within striking distance of the top spot in polling, despite Steyer’s ad onslaught.
“Katie has consistently stood at the top of the field since day one, without yet spending a dime on paid advertising, and as the only candidate to never take a cent from corporate PACs,” campaign spokesperson Peter Opitz said in a statement.
Steyer’s supporters, on the other hand, were touting Monday that he picked up endorsements from three state lawmakers who had backed Swalwell — Nick Schultz, Tasha Boerner and Corey Jackson.
“We’re very aware that people are taking a fresh look at the race and at Tom, and we are trying to take advantage of that attention by re-emphasizing some of the core messages that we’ve been speaking about for months,” said a person familiar with the Steyer campaign’s strategy.
The person listed as examples Steyer’s support for a single-payer health care system in the state and his having received the endorsement of progressive Rep. Ro Khanna — both of which are the subjects of ads the campaign has released.
Since Jan. 1, 2025, the Steyer campaign has spent more than $108 million on ads, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact — nearly 12 times what his closest competitor spent over the same period.
At the same time, California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks’ deadline of Wednesday to allow voters to more easily consolidate behind one leading candidate seems all but certain to pass without anyone exiting.
In a statement Sunday night, Hicks said, “Californians deserve a Democrat who can win in November and provide the strong leadership required in this important moment in our nation’s history.”
“I ask all who care for the future of California to join me in ensuring all voters know he is unfit for public office and receives as little support as possible at the ballot box,” Hicks added, noting that Swalwell’s name will still appear on the ballot.
The official candidate filing deadline passed last month with no Democratic candidates dropping out. Ballots are already printed and will begin going out in the mail May 4 for early voting.
How California’s powerful labor unions re-assess their support will also be critical to how the race unfolds down the stretch.
The California Federation of Labor Unions, which had endorsed four Democratic candidates — Porter, Swalwell, Steyer and Villaraigosa — voted to withdraw its endorsement of Swalwell over the weekend. The influential Service Employees International Union California, the California Teachers Association and the California Medical Association, which had all endorsed Swalwell, voted over the weekend to rescind their support.
On the Republican side, the state party didt not end up endorsing a candidate at its convention this weekend after both Hilton and Bianco fell short of the 60% support level required.
The convention came just days after President Donald Trump endorsed Hilton — a move many Democrats said would help them avoid a shutout in the general election since it would prompt Republicans to consolidate behind one candidate instead of splitting more evenly.
Meanwhile, many Democratic power players are searching for whom to support.
Stephen Cloobeck, a billionaire businessman who dropped his Democratic bid for governor in November to endorse Swalwell, told NBC Los Angeles that following the Swalwell news, he not only was pulling his support for Swalwell — he was also leaving the Democratic Party.
“I’m disappointed because I’ve met most of the candidates, if not all of them,” he said, adding, “I am no longer a Democrat.”
“They cannot lead,” he said. “They have no voice.”
Former San Francisco Mayor and California Assembly Speaker Willie Brown, responding to questions from KGO-TV of San Francisco about whether he had chosen someone to support, replied bluntly.
“No. I’m still trying to find somebody who might be able to win, and so far I haven’t found him,” Brown said.
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