Kentucky Derby picture finally starting to take shapenewsline24

March 30 (UPI) — Finally, some legitimate favorites seem to be showing up in the scramble toward the Kentucky Derby.

While the international big boys were slugging it out on Saturday’s Dubai World Cup program, an injury to highly regarded Paladin, a runaway victory by Renegade in the Arkansas Derby and a squeaker of a win by Commandment in the Florida Derby put a bit of structure to the Run for the Roses field.

There was lots more action around North America, as well.

The Road to the Roses

The Daily Racing Form initially reported Saturday that Paladin will be out of action through the summer with an injured ankle. He was the top individual choice in last weekend’s Kentucky Derby future wager and joins earlier Derby favorite and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Ted Noffey on the sidelines.

In on-track action:

Renegade dropped back to race last of eight in the $1.5 million Grade I Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, but jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. had faith in the Into Mischief colt and that faith was rewarded.

Renegade started to move up entering the stretch turn, mounted a challenge three-wide and jetted home 4 lengths to the good of runner-up Silent Tactic. Taptastic, making just his second start, was third.

‘We were super excited about the way he ran,” trainer Todd Pletcher said of Renegade. “I was really impressed by the way he finished coming home the last eighth of a mile the way he did.”

Silent Tactic, with 100 points, also is well ensconced in the Kentucky Derby field.

At Gulfstream Park, Saturday’s $1 million Grade I Curlin Florida Derby shaped up to be a three-way battle involving the 1-2 finishers from the Grade II Fountain of Youth, Commandment and Chief Wallabee, and the winner of the Grade III Holy Bull, Nearly.

Someone forgot to tell Grade III Tampa Bay Derby winner The Puma, who went to the post at odds north of 7-1.

The Puma started last of six, surged to the lead on the turn and looked like a sure winner — until Commandment got going for jockey Flavien Prat. The Into Mischief colt gobbled up ground through the final sixteenth and stuck a nostril in front of his rival at just the right time for the win. Chief Wallabee was third and Nearly finished fourth.

“I’m proud of the horse. He’s a solid horse,” said Commandment’s trainer, Brad Cox. “This was a good race and it’s going to set him up for the Derby.”

“We thought we had him,” said Gustavo Delgado Jr., son and assistant to The Puma’s trainer. “But, other than that, it was really, really what we wanted to see before the [Kentucky] Derby.”

When the dust had settled, Commandment was atop the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” leaderboard with 150 points, followed by Renegade with 125. The Puma vaulted into the No. 4 spot, Silent Tactic into No. 5 and Chief Wallabee to No. 12.

The top two finishers from Saturday’s Group 2 UAE Derby, Japan’s Wonder Dean and Dubai-based Six Speed, also qualified for the Run for the Roses. Danon Bourbon, winner of the “Japan Road” series finale on Saturday, also likely will be coming, leaving only 17 spots for American 3-year-olds.

The major preps conclude Saturday with the Grade I Blue Grass at Keeneland and the Grade I Santa Anita Derby, each worth 100 points to the winner.

The path to the Oaks

When morning-line favorite Explora was scratched with a fever, Counting Stars inherited the favorite’s role in Friday’s $1 million Grade II Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park and she didn’t disappoint, running off to a 5 1/2-length victory.

Trained by Mark Casse for West Point Thoroughbreds, Counting Stars got her fourth win and improved on a second-place finish behind Explora in the Grade III Honeybee.

Prom Queen, making just her third start, came from off the pace to win Saturday’s $250,000 Grade II Gulfstream Park Oaks by 2 3/4 lengths over the pacesetter, My Miss Mo. The odds-on favorite, She Be Smooth, started last and could only manage to finish third.

Classic / dirt mile

Two new potential stars showed their promise in weekend races and a name from the past resurfaced.

Nu What’s New, a 4-year-old Munnings colt, defeated a solid field in Saturday’s $500,000 Grade II Oaklawn Mile, his third win from his last four starts. He was second in the other, the Grade III Razorback Handicap, behind only Magnitude, Saturday’s Dubai World Cup winner.

Grande, the most solid of favorites, ran to his notices in Saturday’s $175,000 Grade III Ghostzapper Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The 4-year-old Curlin colt led from the start and got home first, 3/4 length better than Capital Idea. After five starts, he now has four wins and a second, the second coming in last year’s Grade II Wood Memorial.

At Santa Anita, one of trainer Bob Baffert’s early 2025 Kentucky Derby contenders, Cornucopian, continued a comeback. Given a long layoff after finishing fourth in the Arkansas Derby, the Into Mischief colt returned with an allowance win Jan. 31 and was an easy, 2 3/4-length winner in the $100,000 Grade III San Carlos Sunday.

Also, Publisher rallied from a pace-stalking trip to win Saturday’s $135,000 American Pharoah Stakes at Oaklawn Park by 1 1/2 lengths and Parchment Party took Saturday’s $200,000 Temperence hill Stakes at Oaklawn by 1/2 length.

Distaff

Scalable, the favorite in a field of six, edged to the front and clear in the late going in Sunday’s $175,000 Top Flight Stakes at Aqueduct.

Sprint

Pentathlon came five-wide into the stretch in Saturday’s $175,000 Army Mule Stakes at Gulfstream Park and outfinished Back Em Up to win by 1/2 length.

Filly & Mare Sprint

Haulin Ice, the odds-on favorite, had no trouble with five overmatched rivals in Friday’s $250,000 Matron Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The 5-year-old Coal Front mare idled briefly behind the leaders, assumed command rounding the bend and drew off to win by 1 3/4 lengths over Foie Gras.

Turf

Far Bridge won Saturday’s $225,000 Grade III Pan American Stakes at Gulfstream Park by a neck over pacesetter Corruption.

Immortalized challenged inside the early leaders in Saturday’s $175,000 Cutler Bay Stakes for 3-year-olds at Gulfstream Park and battled down the stretch before prevailing by a head over Ababajoni.

Quatrocentro led all the way to win Saturday’s $175,000 Appleton Stakes at Gulfstream Park, defeating West Side Tide by 3/4 length.

Filly & mare turf

Sultana raced off the pace in Saturday’s $175,000 Orchid Stakes at Gulfstream Park, charged to the front in the stretch and outfinished stubborn pacesetter Ayra Stark by a neck.

Rashmi, the odds-on favorite, went quickly to the lead in Saturday’s $100,000 Grade III Wilshire Stakes at Santa Anita, developed a 5-length lead and coasted home first by 2 3/4 lengths.

Tam Tam, always close, found an extra burst in deep stretch to win Saturday’s $175,000 Sanibel Island for 3-year-old fillies at Gulfstream Park by a neck over Connect the Stars.

Sweet Rebecca worked her way to the lead in Saturday’s $175,000 Sand Springs Stakes at Gulfstream Park and held off Hang the Moon to win by a neck.