April 8 (UPI) — Brazil is heading toward a highly competitive presidential election, with a statistical tie between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, amid concerns over possible U.S. influence and geopolitical tensions tied to critical minerals.

A poll by consulting firm IDEIA, conducted April 3-7 with 1,500 respondents, shows Lula with 45.5% support in a runoff scenario, compared with 45.8% for Bolsonaro, a difference within the 2.5 percentage point margin of error.

The survey points to an open race six months ahead of the October presidential vote.

IDEIA said the electorate remains unstable. About 51.4% of respondents said they could change their vote before the election and the survey introduced an unusual geopolitical dimension. Some 9.1% identified foreign influence as one of the main threats to Brazil’s democracy.

In addition, 52% said elections should be decided exclusively by Brazilians, while 28% said seeking international support is legitimate.

The scenario comes amid rising political tensions over the role of external actors in the campaign, particularly the United States, and Brazil’s strategic position in sectors such as critical minerals.

Tensions intensified after Bolsonaro took part in the Conservative Political Action Conference held in Texas on March 28.

During his speech, Bolsonaro said he expects to win the election but conditioned that outcome on institutional guarantees.

“I will win because it is the will of my people. But for that will to be preserved, we need free and fair elections,” he said in English before a conservative audience.

The senator said these conditions depend on greater transparency in vote counting and protections for free expression on social media.

“This is a major challenge. If our people can express themselves freely on social media and if votes are counted correctly, we will win,” he said.

Bolsonaro also called on the United States and the “free world” to closely monitor Brazil’s electoral process. He urged them to track freedom of expression and apply diplomatic pressure on institutions to ensure “elections based on values of liberty and transparency.”

At the same time, he rejected what he described as foreign interference in past elections, referring to the administration of Joe Biden, while maintaining the need for international oversight.

In that context, the senator presented himself as a political continuation of former President Jair Bolsonaro, describing himself as “Bolsonaro 2.0,” and positioned Brazil as a strategic U.S. ally in countering China.

“Brazil will be the battlefield where the future of the hemisphere will be decided,” he said.

He added that the country could play a key role in reducing U.S. dependence on China for critical minerals, particularly rare earth elements.

“The United States still depends on China for about 70% of its rare earth imports, while China controls about 70% of global mining and more than 90% of processing,” he said.

“Without these components, U.S. technological innovation becomes impossible and the production of advanced military systems falls into the hands of adversaries.”

The remarks drew reactions from the ruling coalition. Rep. Lindbergh Farias of the Workers’ Party said he had asked the Prosecutor General’s Office to assess possible liability by the senator.

Farias said Bolsonaro may have received a “confidential” report and shared it with U.S. authorities, an allegation not supported by public evidence.

“This has a name: betrayal of sovereignty,” he wrote on the social media platform X. “Those who act like this do not defend Brazil. They work against it. Brazilian sovereignty is not negotiable.”

The Prosecutor General’s Office has not said whether it will open an investigation.