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The war in Iran has jolted financial markets, sending oil prices surging and stocks and bonds falling.
The market gyrations can be dizzying. Here’s a look at how the Middle East conflict has impacted markets this month:
Oil prices have surged since the war began.
Oil has climbed due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disruptions to oil facilities in the Middle East and uncertainty about the duration of the conflict.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 4.22% Friday to settle at $112.57, its highest level since 2022. Brent traded around $73 per barrel before the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.
The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are each set for their worst month in a year.
The Dow hit a record high on February 10. The blue-chip index has since dropped 10%, putting it in correction territory. The Nasdaq is also in correction.
The S&P 500 is down 7.84% from its peak in late January.
Surging energy prices have prompted central banks to rein in expectations for interest rate cuts and, in some instances, hike rates.
“The conflict has significantly influenced the market landscape, creating a highly dynamic and unpredictable environment,” said Ed Egilinsky, managing director at Direxion.
“Investors ought to prepare for continued volatility within equity markets, as prices may swing in either direction until more definitive guidance is available,” Egilinksy said.
US Treasury bonds have fallen this month, pushing yields higher.
The 10-year yield, which influences borrowing costs across the economy, hit 4.48% Friday, its highest level since July, before paring gains to close at 4.43%.
Yields have climbed as investors sell bonds and adjust expectations for potential inflation, and the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady. That’s a shift from the start of the year, when markets were pricing in two Fed rate cuts this year.
“That’s what’s striking fear in the hearts of bond investors,” said Robert Tipp, head of global bonds at PGIM Fixed Income.
“We’re seeing markets begin to question whether there will not only not be cuts, but may in fact be hikes,” Tipp said.
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