Users on Kalshi, a popular prediction market site, have chosen a new favorite to win the 2028 presidential election.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is now the “odds favorite to win the 2028 presidency,” Kalshi announced Wednesday morning via X. The post showed Rubio leading at 19 percent, with Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom both at 18 percent.
Polymarket, another prediction market platform, also revealed Tuesday morning that Rubio’s odds on the site hit an “all-time high,” though he remained several points behind Vance.
Prediction market platforms allow users to bet on the outcome of events, and they’re growing in popularity. A January report from The Washington Post found that more than $200 million was staked on political or government events through Kalshi and Polymarket.
Even though the election is more than two years away, questions are mounting about who could run to replace President Donald Trump.
While there appears to be growing speculation about Rubio’s ambitions, the secretary of state has repeatedly expressed his support for Vance, who is widely seen as the front-runner for the Republican nomination should he choose to run.
“If JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him,” Rubio said in a Vanity Fair interview published late last year.
When asked about the 2028 election last summer, Rubio said Vance would make a “great nominee.”
“I think he’s doing a great job as vice president. He’s a close friend, and I hope he intends to do it. I know it’s kind of early,” he told Fox News’ Lara Trump. “But being in the role that I’m in here as the secretary of state, I really don’t play in politics.”
“There’s actually rules against me being involved in domestic politics, and I want to do this job as long as the president allows me to do it and stay in that job, which would keep me here all the way through January of 2028,” he added.
Despite the secretary of state’s past comments, Trump has started pitting Vance and Rubio against each other as the election approaches, the Wall Street Journal reports. At a recent event, Trump even asked a room of donors about the two men — and the applause for Rubio was louder, attendees told the outlet.
Still, Trump reportedly considers comparing Vance and Rubio to be a game, and doesn’t view it as picking a successor yet. He’s also expressed a desire for Vance and Rubio to run on the same ticket, the Journal’s sources said.
Trump himself has repeatedly teased running again himself for what would be an unconstitutional third term.
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