A coalition of countries seeking to accelerate the global transition away from fossil fuels is preparing to unveil new national plans at the ongoing United Nations climate talks, known as COP31, in Antalya, Turkey, pressing ahead despite the withdrawal of Colombia, one of its founding members.

The coalition, launched in the Colombian coastal city of Santa Marta in April, is expected to release a progress report this week outlining steps taken by participating countries, including additional national plans to reduce dependence on coal, oil and gas.

The announcement comes as Ireland and the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu prepare to take over leadership of the initiative from Colombia and the Netherlands, with a second international conference planned for July 2027.

A statement from Ireland’s Department of Climate, Energy and the Environment confirmed Colombia’s withdrawal and said preparations were well advanced for a program of events in both countries next year. Neither the Environment Ministry nor the presidential office responded to questions about Colombia’s withdrawal or its plans to attend the next conference.

“This process is bigger than any one country,” the department said, adding that further details would be announced at a formal handover during COP31.

A coalition seeking to turn promises into action

The Santa Marta conference emerged from frustration over the slow pace of international efforts to reduce dependence on coal, oil and gas, the fossil fuels that are the main drivers of global warming.

The initiative brought representatives from 57 countries together to explore ways of turning international commitments to move away from fossil fuels, the main drivers of global warming, into concrete national policies. Unlike formal U.N. climate negotiations, the gathering was designed to encourage open discussions without pressure to reach binding agreements or commit to specific deadlines.

Colombia’s withdrawal follows the election of President Abelardo de la Espriella, who took office in August promising to strengthen the country’s oil and gas industry and revive exploration. He succeeded leftist President Gustavo Petro, who had made moving away from fossil fuels a central pillar of his environmental agenda and stopped awarding new oil and gas exploration contracts.

Colombia’s Environment Minister Fabio Arjona said in the past week that the previous administration’s restrictions on gas development had contributed to domestic shortages, forcing some industries to rely on more polluting fuels. He argued that expanding supplies of natural gas, itself a fossil fuel, would help reduce emissions by replacing dirtier alternatives while ensuring the country’s energy security.

Irene Velez, Colombia’s former environment minister and one of the initiative’s leading advocates, said the coalition had developed momentum beyond the government that helped establish it.

“Santa Marta has a life of its own, beyond the change of government in Colombia,” Velez said.

From international pledges to national road maps

The coalition’s future is being discussed as governments at COP31 confront renewed disagreements over how to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.

At the 2023 U.N. climate summit in Dubai, known as COP28, nearly 200 countries agreed for the first time to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. But the agreement established no binding timetable, leaving governments to determine how to fulfill the commitment. Since then, little has happened on the international level toward reducing greenhouse gases.

This year at COP31, an initial outline of a possible agreement includes proposals to recognize a global fossil fuel transition road map developed by Brazil’s COP30 presidency in 2025 and establish a process for advancing its recommendations.

The voluntary road map, published on Nov. 3 and formally presented at COP31 a week later, outlines ways countries can reduce their dependence on coal, oil and gas according to their economic circumstances.

Natalie Jones, a senior policy adviser at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, said 23 countries had announced national or regional road maps or plans to develop them and the Santa Marta coalition was advancing work on national road maps, trade, economic policies and financial incentives.

“Planning is the first step towards delivering the transition,” Jones said.

Velez pointed to initiatives in Finland, Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands, alongside efforts by the United Kingdom and Brazil to develop their own road maps, as evidence of growing momentum.

But questions remain over whether voluntary commitments can produce meaningful reductions in fossil fuel production and consumption.

Joeri Rogelj, a professor of climate science and policy at Imperial College London, said progress since Santa Marta had been limited, with only a handful of countries publishing national transition road maps.

“The COP30 road map for transitioning away from fossil fuels is more a transitioning mood board than a map that one can use to navigate this transition,” Rogelj said, suggesting it offers a broad vision rather than concrete steps countries can follow.

Still, he said the initiative could help countries identify different pathways away from fossil fuels, from replacing aging infrastructure with renewable energy to avoiding fossil fuel dependence altogether.

Jones said the global road map was a significant political step but warned that its voluntary nature meant governments would need to establish clear timelines and implement concrete policies.

COP31 puts fossil fuels back on the agenda

The debate is unfolding at COP31, where negotiators are considering whether to formally recognize the global road map and establish a process for carrying its recommendations into future climate negotiations.

Fanny Petitbon, a policy expert at environmental group 350.org, warned that dropping contested proposals in the face of opposition would undermine the summit’s ambition.

“Cutting fossil fuel dependence and scaling up climate finance, including by making big polluters foot part of the bill, are two make-or-break issues for a successful COP outcome,” she said.

Financing remains a major obstacle, particularly for developing countries dependent on fossil fuel revenues or lacking resources to expand renewable energy and supporting infrastructure.

Jones said vulnerable countries would need international support to diversify their economies and maintain public services as fossil fuel revenues decline.

The coalition also faces the challenge of attracting major fossil fuel producers, whose participation could determine whether it becomes a significant force in global energy policy.

Velez said she would not rule out greater involvement from major producers, suggesting China and some of its provincial governments could eventually become more interested as economic and energy security considerations increasingly influence the transition.

Organizers are preparing events in Ireland ahead of the expected 2027 conference in Tuvalu, where governments will face pressure to demonstrate progress beyond announcing new plans.

Ireland’s government said it was committed to ensuring the next conference delivered “meaningful and lasting outcomes.”

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