Israeli opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot has been given the opportunity to form a new government after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority in the October elections, raising the possibility of an end to his long tenure in power.

President Isaac Herzog selected the former military chief on Saturday, following consultations with political parties. Eisenkot has 28 days to cobble together a coalition to form a government. If he fails to form a new administration within that period, he can seek a 14-day extension.

“Now is the time to form a national emergency government. I will do everything to ensure we are worthy,” Eisenkot, the leader of the Yashar party, posted on X.

However, the 66-year-old faces a difficult challenge as many of the opposition parties hold sharply conflicting positions on national security, religion and the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory.

Neither Eisenkot nor Netanyahu has a 61-seat majority in Israel’s 120-member parliament, the Knesset.

As a result, Arab-led parties hold a potentially decisive role in determining who governs Israel, even as Eisenkot and his prospective partners refuse to rely on their support.

So what do we now know about Eisenkot’s possible paths to power, and can he succeed in unseating Netanyahu?

Can Eisenkot unite Israel’s divided opposition?

Eisenkot’s potential coalition spans his Yashar party, the centre-left Democrats led by Yair Golan, Naftali Bennett’s centre-right Together party and Avigdor Lieberman’s right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home).

Overall, they control 48 seats, well short of a majority.

Arab-led parties Ra’am (United List) and the Joint List (comprising three parties – Hadash, Ta’al and Balad) – jointly holding 19 seats – have endorsed Eisenkot’s attempt to form a government. Their backing would give the broader anti-Netanyahu camp a combined 67 seats.

Hadash is an Arab-Jewish party, Ta’al advocates for the rights of Palestinian citizens of Israel, and Balad demands equal rights for all its citizens.

However, Eisenkot has ruled out bringing Arab parties into his government, while Lieberman has repeatedly rejected forming a minority administration dependent on their support. Golan’s Democrats have been more willing to partner with Ra’am and the Joint List.

“We must no longer accept Netanyahu’s racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes,” Golan said after the election.

How many seats does Netanyahu’s coalition have now?

Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist coalition has fallen from the 64 seats it secured in 2022 to 53, eight seats short of a majority.

His Likud is the largest individual party with 27 seats, while Eisenkot’s Yashar won 21.

Netanyahu’s efforts to remain in power suffered a further setback when United Torah Judaism, a longtime ultra-Orthodox ally, declined to endorse him or any other candidate during consultations with Herzog.

While the decision hurts Netanyahu’s prospects of regaining power, it did not rule out the party supporting him in future coalition negotiations if their demands were met, particularly compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews, which they reject.

What is a minority government?

If Eisenkot is unable to put together a coalition, he could potentially lead a minority government backed by Arab parties from outside.

A minority government is formed when the parties holding cabinet positions do not collectively control a majority of seats in parliament. Instead, they depend on support from lawmakers outside the governing coalition to remain in power and pass legislation.

Eisenkot could establish such an administration with his four-party bloc relying on external parliamentary support from Ra’am and the Joint List.

Under this arrangement, the Arab-led parties would not necessarily receive cabinet positions or formally join the coalition.

They could instead negotiate policy concessions in exchange for their parliamentary support.

In 2021, Ra’am joined a government led by Bennett, becoming the first independent Arab party to participate in an Israeli governing coalition.

That administration collapsed after 18 months, mainly due to disagreements over the illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank and Palestinian statehood. Most Israeli parties do not support the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state as part of the so-called two-state solution.

Netanyahu, who has been in power for most of the past 20 years, has openly rejected Palestinian statehood and has pushed settlement expansions that are the biggest hurdles in the realisation of Palestinian statehood. Settlements are considered illegal under international law.

What are the other possible paths to forming a government?

Beyond a minority government, Eisenkot could attempt to secure a parliamentary majority by bringing Israel’s two ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, into his coalition.

Together, they hold 13 seats, which would give Eisenkot’s bloc exactly the 61 seats required for a majority.

However, such an alliance would require compromises over military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox religious students, an issue that has long divided Israeli politics.

Eisenkot and his allies, particularly Lieberman, have criticised the exemptions. But Lieberman has recently indicated that he is open to compromise.

While United Torah Judaism has refused to endorse Netanyahu, Shas backed the beleaguered prime minister.

Another option would be a unity government involving Eisenkot’s Yashar, Bennett’s Together party, Lieberman’s Israel Our Home and Netanyahu’s Likud.

Such an alliance would command 67 seats, but would require Eisenkot and his partners to abandon their central election pledge to remove Netanyahu from power.

If Eisenkot fails to form a government within the required time, Herzog could give Netanyahu an opportunity to form a governing coalition.

Should both leaders fail, parliament could nominate another candidate. If no government emerges after a process lasting 100 days, Israelis could be heading to the polls again.

Why does this matter?

The negotiations could determine not only who becomes Israel’s next prime minister, but also which political parties control key ministries and shape policies on the economy, military conscription and the occupied Palestinian territory.

Several members of Eisenkot’s opposition bloc have previously held senior government positions, including in the coalition that removed Netanyahu from power in 2021.

Bennett, who served as prime minister from 2021 to 2022, has long opposed the establishment of a Palestinian state and advocated annexing large parts of the occupied West Bank.

During Israel’s 11-day war on Gaza in May 2021, Bennett, then an opposition politician, backed Netanyahu’s military offensive in the Palestinian enclave. More than 250 Palestinians were killed in Israeli attacks.

Meanwhile, Lieberman served as finance minister in Bennett’s government and previously held the defence portfolio under Netanyahu.

He previously proposed swapping some Arab communities in Israel proper for Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank in the context of a final peace deal with the Palestinians.

Lieberman’s party backs illegal settlement expansion, including E1, and annexing all of Area C, 60 percent of the occupied West Bank already under full Israeli control. E1, which stands for East 1 settlement, is a 12sq km corridor with thousands of housing units. It will cut the West Bank into two parts.

Eisenkot himself served in Netanyahu’s wartime cabinet before leaving the government after disagreements over the conduct of the genocide in Gaza. He has not opposed the genocide but criticised Netanyahu for prioritising his political survival over security considerations.

He has called the idea of a Palestinian state “delusional”, and he supports “strengthening” illegal settlements.